Matthew Stoodley

father, husband, technology geek, homebrewer, photographer, microsoftie. Posts are my own and do not reflect those of anyone else.

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.

- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.

The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.

So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

We believe this is the first documented case of a large-scale AI cyberattack executed without substantial human intervention. It has significant implications for cybersecurity in the age of AI agents.

Read more: https://t.co/VxqERnPQRJ

[Mrs. Stoodley @MeteaWorks]

Tune in!

[Brad Smith @BradSmi]

In West Virginia, more people are at risk of developing diabetic retinopathy than there are eye doctors in the entire world. #AI can help close that gap. It's great to see how @Microsoft @Azure AI is being used to help improve access to care. https://t.co/4AsMxbiUc8

[Mrs. Stoodley @MeteaWorks]

A great event being hosted by The Arc of Illinois!

[Mrs. Stoodley @MeteaWorks]

Mariano’s Hiring event tomorrow!!!!

[60 Minutes @60Minutes]

Only 2% of the National Archives' holdings are online. The goal is to scan and digitize 13.5 billion paper records. But, a recent memo drafted by senior leaders at the agency expressed concern that limited resources could lead to "mission failure." https://t.co/tR5kmPyyfZ

[Auschwitz Memorial @AuschwitzMuseum]

For the upcoming 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, we hope to reach 2 million followers.

Achieving this goal would not only be a tribute to the memory of Victims but also crucial support for our educational mission.

Your engagement is vital. Everyone can help.

[Batavia Girls Wrestling (IL) @BataviaGirlsWR]

Small crew but good workout this AM

[Mrs. Stoodley @MeteaWorks]

Please join us this Thursday at Metea for this amazing event!! @ipsd204 @204STEPS_Eagles @Connections203 @SOMeteaValley

[Chicago Bears @ChicagoBears]

How 'bout a giveaway while we wait?

RT if you want one 👇

[BHS Girls Soccer '26 @bataviasoccer15]

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻CONGRATS to our Varsity players to watch:
Edwards, Koziol, Lowe, Stoodley, Hickman, Sulaver, and Warner 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[Batavia Girls Wrestling (IL) @BataviaGirlsWR]

Sarah is a dedicated educator and volleyball coach at Batavia High School. She's in need of a 2nd heart transplant and is having a rough go right now. Please help by donating and/or sharing. https://t.co/NhRgT77bmc

[Matthew Stoodley @viking65001]

@LouMalnatis Talked to the local store and we are all good now.

[Matthew Stoodley @viking65001]

@LouMalnatis when you order from the Geneva IL store and the delivery guy leaves the pizza on a picnic table at the park down the street from you. #fail #coldpizza

[Batavia Girls Wrestling (IL) @BataviaGirlsWR]

Good luck to our 7 Batavia Girls Wrestling IHSA Sectional Qualifiers!
5:30 PM Start Today
9:30 AM Start Tomorrow
@ Schaumburg HS

[Batavia Girls Wrestling (IL) @BataviaGirlsWR]

GO-TIME: 5 PM TODAY

[Matthew Stoodley @viking65001]

@babs_gr @ATTHelp No luck, started a YouTube TV trial.

[Matthew Stoodley @viking65001]

@ATTHelp Why is UVERSE TV down? Must be too cold in the Chicagoland area to work.

[Batavia Girls Wrestling (IL) @BataviaGirlsWR]

Going into the medal round:
Stoodley going for 7th @ 140 lbs
Enos going for 3rd @ 100 lbs
Perry looking to repeat as tournament champ @ 145 lbs