Gabbar

$SPX - ES ripped to 6818 after hours. 50 Day SMA at 6771 is the wall. Dense resistance above. FOMC Minutes at 2pm. Full Wednesday breakdown. Wednesday April 8, 2026 | SPX 6,616.85 ES hit 6,819 after hours. SPX equivalent ~6,780. Everything above 6,700 is now in play. THE NUMBERS SPX Close: 6,616.85 VIX: 25.78 | VIX9D: 27.27 | VVIX: 117.30 Daily 1SD: +/- 113.7 (6,503 to 6,731) Weekly 1SD: +/- 236.6 (6,380 to 6,853) 200 SMA: 6,650.86 | 50 SMA: 6,771.37 Dealer: BUY | Flip: 6,420 Straddle Wed: +/- 165 (6,452 to 6,782) Straddle Thu: +/- 171.60 (6,445 to 6,788) SPX = ES minus 39 GEX Magnets: 6,670 6,565 6,555 6,540 FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET | Delta earnings pre-market THE VOL PICTURE VIX jumped to 25.78 and VIX9D spiked to 27.27. That's a big expansion from where we were Monday. The daily expected range is now +/- 113.7 pts. VVIX at 117.30 means even the VIX level itself is moving around. Every level on this sheet should be treated as approximate. If you're used to tight stops, widen them. WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY Ugly session that reversed hard into the close. Opened weak. Trump posted escalating threats about destroying Iran's infrastructure. SPX dropped 1.2% to the low 6,530s during the session. Strikes on Iran's Kharg Island were reported. Felt like the deadline was going to pass with no deal. Then Pakistan stepped in. Their PM asked Trump for a 2 week extension of the Hormuz deadline and asked Iran to open the strait for 2 weeks as a goodwill gesture. The White House acknowledged the proposal. SPX erased the entire 1.2% drop and closed slightly green. After the bell, ES ripped to 6,819 That's SPX ~6,780 which is right at the Wednesday straddle high and sitting on the 50 SMA. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR WEDNESDAY The straddle says the expected range tops out at 6,782. ES already hit that level. If SPX opens anywhere near 6,780, it's opening at the top of the expected move with heavy resistance directly overhead and the 50 SMA right there at 6,771. That's not a spot to chase. The 200 SMA at 6,650.86 is now well below. On a pullback, that's where buyers should show interest. Where ES settles by morning matters. Could open anywhere from 6,700 to 6,780 depending on overnight headlines. THE LEVELS RESISTANCE ABOVE ~6,780 Heavy customer call selling stacked from 6,785 all the way to 6,875. Not scattered. Every 10 to 20 pts has a wall. 6,785: First ceiling above the expected open. 6,800: Another wall. 6,810 and 6,820: More of the same. 6,830: Major wall. Thick. 6,850: Heaviest call selling on the entire Wednesday board. Hard cap. 6,875: Extended. Only on a blowout day. If SPX opens near 6,780, it's running straight into this. There is no clean runway above 6,785. Rallies will grind and stall, not rip. FUEL NEAR THE EXPECTED OPEN 6,775: Customer call buying. Could push into 6,785 on the opening drive. 6,760: Customer call buying AND customer put buying. Both sides positioned for a move through here. Fast either direction. 6,745 and 6,740: Customer call buying. More fuel. This 6,740 to 6,775 band is volatile. Price moves fast here in either direction. Not a place to sit with tight stops. SUPPORT ON A PULLBACK If the gap fades or ES pulls back overnight: 6,750: Customer call selling. First real catch. 6,735: Customer call selling. Solid. 6,725: Customer call selling. Decent. 6,700: This is NOT support. Customer call buying. Fuel. If price drops to 6,700 it goes through it. Same at 6,705. Trap door. Don't try to buy a dip at 6,700. 6,695: Customer call selling. Real support. First clean level below 6,735. 6,650.86: 200 SMA. Key reference on a deeper pullback. If this holds from above, the bullish structure is intact. 6,650: Customer call buying AND customer put buying at this strike. Both sides fuel. Another trap door. Be careful. 6,625: Customer call selling. Mild support. 6,600 and 6,595: Massive absorption on both sides at both strikes. This is the pin zone. If the gap completely unwinds, this is where it catches. Heavy sticky zone. 6,585: Support. 6,550: Massive customer put selling. Strong. Below that, support at 6,515, 6,475, 6,470, 6,450, 6,435, and 6,400 (flip level, massive). THE SCENARIOS SPX opens above 6,770: 50 SMA at 6,771 is the first test. 6,785 is the first positioning ceiling. 6,800 next. 6,830 is the big wall. Pullbacks should find buyers at 6,750 and 6,735. SPX opens 6,720 to 6,750: Watch 6,750 as the breakout level. 6,735 and 6,725 are the support base. If 6,735 fails, the fuel at 6,700 pulls price down to 6,695. SPX opens 6,660 to 6,700: 200 SMA at 6,650.86 becomes the key. If it holds from above, bullish. If it fails, price heads toward 6,600/6,595. SPX opens below 6,650: Gap faded. 6,625 is the first level. 6,600/6,595 catches it. FOMC MINUTES AT 2PM Does the Fed see war-driven inflation as temporary or structural? That's the only question that matters from the minutes. Hawkish read = pullback from whatever level SPX is at. Reinforces the zero rate cuts view. Dovish or neutral = supports the gap. Reduce size before 1:45pm. The 2pm release will move the market no matter where it's trading. THURSDAY 4/9 Ceiling 6,705 | Floor 6,560 | Regime 56% PPI + GDP + Jobless Claims at 8:30am Straddle +/- 171.60 (6,445 to 6,788) Wider range day. PPI at 8:30am is the first inflation read of the week. If it comes in hot, expect the market to price in a hot CPI on Friday. If cool, room to rally. The resistance cluster from Wednesday's positioning at 6,750 to 6,850 likely still matters if SPX is trading up there. FRIDAY 4/10 Ceiling 6,700 | Floor 6,575 | Regime 59% CPI 8:30am + Michigan Sentiment 10am CPI consensus: +1.0% MoM, +3.4% YoY The big one. 6,600 has customer buying on both call and put side for Friday. That makes it a trigger not a pin. CPI will break it violently in one direction. 6,575 has heavy customer put selling. That's the real floor. 6,400 has massive customer put selling. The backstop. Minimum size Friday. CPI defines the week. RULES 1. ES hit the straddle high. Opening at the top of expected range is not an edge. 2. VIX9D at 27.27. Daily range is +/- 113.7 pts. Levels are approximate. 3. VVIX at 117.30. VIX itself is moving. Ranges could widen further intraday. 4. Dense resistance 6,785 to 6,850. No clean runway. 5. 50 SMA at 6,771.37 is the technical ceiling right now. 6. 200 SMA at 6,650.86 is support on a pullback. 7. 6,700 is a trap door. Don't buy dips there. 8. 6,650 is also a trap door. 9. 6,600/6,595 is the ultimate backstop. 10. FOMC Minutes at 2pm. Reduce before 1:45. 11. Wait 30 minutes after open. Don't chase. 12. If the deal narrative cracks, the gap fills fast. - - - Not financial advice. Verify all levels independently before trading. $SPX #SPX #OptionsTrading #0DTE #GEX #VIX #FinTwit #Iran #FOMC

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Gabbar @vinay244

3 months ago

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6 months ago

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Gabbar @vinay244

8 months ago

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8 months ago

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about 5 years ago

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over 5 years ago

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