투자의 고고학

골짜기의 수행자 | goldbrew

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

Huge mistake: Optimizing a thing that should not exist
https://t.co/7KSbngqmAh

[Greg Brockman @gdb]

Software development is undergoing a renaissance in front of our eyes.

If you haven't used the tools recently, you likely are underestimating what you're missing. Since December, there's been a step function improvement in what tools like Codex can do. Some great engineers at OpenAI yesterday told me that their job has fundamentally changed since December. Prior to then, they could use Codex for unit tests; now it writes essentially all the code and does a great deal of their operations and debugging. Not everyone has yet made that leap, but it's usually because of factors besides the capability of the model.

Every company faces the same opportunity now, and navigating it well — just like with cloud computing or the Internet — requires careful thought. This post shares how OpenAI is currently approaching retooling our teams towards agentic software development. We're still learning and iterating, but here's how we're thinking about it right now:

As a first step, by March 31st, we're aiming that:

(1) For any technical task, the tool of first resort for humans is interacting with an agent rather than using an editor or terminal.
(2) The default way humans utilize agents is explicitly evaluated as safe, but also productive enough that most workflows do not need additional permissions.

In order to get there, here's what we recommended to the team a few weeks ago:

1. Take the time to try out the tools. The tools do sell themselves — many people have had amazing experiences with 5.2 in Codex, after having churned from codex web a few months ago. But many people are also so busy they haven't had a chance to try Codex yet or got stuck thinking "is there any way it could do X" rather than just trying.
- Designate an "agents captain" for your team — the primary person responsible for thinking about how agents can be brought into the teams' workflow.
- Share experiences or questions in a few designated internal channels
- Take a day for a company-wide Codex hackathon

2. Create skills and AGENTS[.md].
- Create and maintain an AGENTS[.md] for any project you work on; update the AGENTS[.md] whenever the agent does something wrong or struggles with a task.
- Write skills for anything that you get Codex to do, and commit it to the skills directory in a shared repository

3. Inventory and make accessible any internal tools.
- Maintain a list of tools that your team relies on, and make sure someone takes point on making it agent-accessible (such as via a CLI or MCP server).

4. Structure codebases to be agent-first. With the models changing so fast, this is still somewhat untrodden ground, and will require some exploration.
- Write tests which are quick to run, and create high-quality interfaces between components.

5. Say no to slop. Managing AI generated code at scale is an emerging problem, and will require new processes and conventions to keep code quality high
- Ensure that some human is accountable for any code that gets merged. As a code reviewer, maintain at least the same bar as you would for human-written code, and make sure the author understands what they're submitting.

6. Work on basic infra. There's a lot of room for everyone to build basic infrastructure, which can be guided by internal user feedback. The core tools are getting a lot better and more usable, but there's a lot of infrastructure that currently go around the tools, such as observability, tracking not just the committed code but the agent trajectories that led to them, and central management of the tools that agents are able to use.

Overall, adopting tools like Codex is not just a technical but also a deep cultural change, with a lot of downstream implications to figure out. We encourage every manager to drive this with their team, and to think through other action items — for example, per item 5 above, what else can prevent a lot of "functionally-correct but poorly-maintainable code" from creeping into codebases.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

It ain't what a man don't know that makes him a fool, but what he does know that ain't so.

사람을 바보로 만드는 것은 무지가 아니라,
의심 없이 믿고 있는 ‘잘못된 확신’이다.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

@NathanYJLee "우리가 대마라고 믿었던 존재가 더 이상 대마가 아니게 되는 장면에도 점차 익숙해져야 할겁니다."
차가우면서도 고개를 끄덕이게 되는 말씀입니다.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

<안티프래질> 나심 탈렙

블랙 스완 효과는
복잡성,
구성 요소 간의 상호의존성,
세계화,
그리고 사람들이 아슬아슬한 모험을 하게 만드는 효율성이라는
끔찍한 유혹 때문에 더욱 커지게 되어 있다.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

예측 < 노출

[Nathan | Factomind @NathanYJLee]

많은 사람들이 AI등의 기술 발전을 받아들이는 속도가 느림 vs. 적극적으로 움직이는 소수의 발전 속도는 말도 안되게 빠름

속도의 차이가 만드는 비효율이 클 수밖에 없음

트레이딩도 백 번 안되다가도 알짜 비효율 하나 찾으면 큰 성공으로 이어지는 것처럼

지치지 않고 타석에 계속 서는 게 중요

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

@NathanYJLee 🫡

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

and to continually expand the leeway to be able to act

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

For quality of life, it is better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong, rather than a pessimist and right

[James Clear @JamesClear]

The ultimate form of optimization is elimination.

Nothing is more effective than removing the ineffective.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

@elonmusk We need Groggles soon.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

하워드 막스:
경험이란,
당신이 원했던 것을 가지지 못했을 때
당신에게 주어지는 것

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

테리 스미스가 말하는 천국으로의 계단
1. Invest in good companies
2. Don’t overpay
3. Do nothing

→ 대부분의 투자자가 가장 어려워하는 단계는 3번.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

@NathanYJLee 본능적으로 1번에 끌리는 시장 참여자들이 압도적으로 많기에, 역설적으로 장기적인 관점에서 변동성에 덜 반응하는 투자자들에게 초과수익의 기회가 열리는 건 아닐까 생각해봅니다.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

@NathanYJLee 독서는 정말 고효율의 레버리지인 것 같습니다. 그것도 시간을 사는.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

@Mong2Father 손!

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

Writing still matters. Apparently, a lot.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

$1M prize for the top 𝕏 article

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

문제는 몰라서가 아니라,
멈출 줄 몰라서 생긴다.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

@NathanYJLee 꽉 찬 느낌의 밀도 높은 강의, 감사합니다. 많이 배웠습니다.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Tesla will stop selling FSD after Feb 14.

FSD will only be available as a monthly subscription thereafter.

[투자의 고고학 @vitarka]

@hangul 한입만

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

They found their own game