China now manufactures 89% of the world’s solar panels, 70% of the world’s wind turbines, 83% of the world’s batteries, and 75% of the world’s electric vehicles — all at a lower cost than the West.
Well, I'm crazy. I'm angry. I'm sickened by a system that rewards secrets and punishes honesty; where markets aren't moved by fundamentals so much as skewed by who knows what, and when.
So let me tell you a story. It's a story of market efficiency, of an edge living in the mundane. A story of shadows that turn out to be the market itself, where the shadow is just "how markets work." It's a design, not a mistake. A trap, because it is the system, and changing it breaks the very thing that keeps it functioning the way it does. We are watching the market efficiently grind alpha into dust, but the persistence runs so long it takes years to flip. And it's a story of how the shorts were never the main problem. The shorts are just covering the underwear, and the underwear is showing holes.
Why would any regulator risk market credibility by openly attacking participation it sanctioned in the first place? It makes no sense to "take down" people who are merely knowledgeable of the mechanics, if the cost is a nuclear bomb going off in markets across the world. So I don't think they will. I think the edge is being erased the slow way, and that it will not come back; this is what markets do. When alpha is discovered, it decays. I suspect the regulators are simply watching it decay, and preparing for the day it finally does.
Why would it be decaying at all? Here's what I believe, and I'll label it as belief: it was found. Discovered and pirated by people who are quietly eating that alpha. And when it finally breaks, there will be hell to pay for everyone who tied themselves to the losing side thinking they'd bought a surefire win.
Then why wouldn't somebody just blow the whistle and end it? Why would a person spend real money to pirate the signal, leave figures in it, and tiptoe around the thing without ever naming it out loud? I think the answer is layered, and I think it's deliberate.
You cannot erase market data once it exists. You can gate it, jack-up the price, and create complex contracts to make sure it is buried, but you cannot erase it. It's there. Leaving figures in the tape is the one thing nobody can quietly delete; if the mechanism is what I think it is, then the record is the one thing that can trace it, start to finish, that nobody can quietly delete. Without that evidence, and without a crowd watching, it gets buried and nothing changes. You can't force change without cornering the predators first.
But you don't blow up your own ship to beat pirates. Stopping a takeover like this was never going to be a public game everyone got to watch. The people who ran it as a free-money glitch are locked in now, holding a position they can only manage at a brutal cost, trapped by their own size. They can't ask the regulators to step in, because that reveals the system. They can't fight their way out, because that's just how alpha decay works: once the cat is out of the bag, it does not go back in.
And the regulators? I think they've been watching a long time. I think they know exactly who is participating, that's what a consolidated audit trail is for, but knowing isn't the same as being able to act. You don't defuse a bomb by detonating it when people are standing on it, and pulling this thread risks the whole market unraveling. So the safer play, the one I think they've chosen, is to steer everyone clear and let the system work itself out slowly.
Which leaves the whistleblower with almost nothing. Step into the light with no money and no public behind you, and the system crushes you and erases you from the news cycle before the story lands. So the only move left starts to look like vigilante justice you get down in the dirt with the people spreading it. You put on the costume because the costume is the only defense you have. Tell the truth plainly and you invite destruction, and not only from the predators. The regulators trying to cover their own asses will help bury you too, all in the name of protecting the "integrity of the markets."
So you wear it. And I think there's more than one wearing it; a team, of sorts, on the side of the household investor. They know how the system works, which means they never have to coordinate. The predators keep their plausible deniability by simply obeying the design, never needing to say out loud why they all seem to know the same things at the same time. The other side can do exactly the same in reverse.
Because once you know the system, you know what it needs and when it needs it. Calling attention to a ticker when the machine wants attention elsewhere is an edge. Selling a massive position into bullish news is a counterstrike against the mechanics. Scheduling your buys into a scheduled dip is an act of rebellion, it hits the mechanism in a soft spot and erases the gains that feed it.
It's like seeing the world inverted. Upside down. The truth lives between the lines, and the lies get fire-hosed at us to keep it from peeking through. You call the people slowly realizing what you've done "conspiracy theorists." You call them "crazy."
Well. I'm crazy. And I'm angry. But this is changing, so don't expect the edge to last, and don't let yourself slide into believing everyone with money and power is corrupt. It isn't true. There are people who know the system. There are people fighting it. Changing it is just like a kid trying to push over a sumo wrestler, it takes time to grow big enough and strong enough to stand eye-to-eye with a giant, even when you already know their secrets. When that day comes, there will be no place left in this country for an old sumo clinging to a dead alpha.
I may never get the satisfying click of handcuffs on these predators. But I'll get to watch them fade, irrelevant to the new system coming up underneath them. I believe in the community. I have faith in humanity and in our ability to rise above financial tyranny. Stay strong.
We're close.
You said that the arbitrage guys are thinking RC doesn't have a chance of making this deal go through, but I think it's the opposite. As long as they believe the deal will happen, they can stay $GME-neutral and cover their shorts when the deal is done. But if the deal falls, they're screwed - because they're long on overvalued $EBAY and short a very strong $GME . That's the whole point: they sit and pray that the deal will go through.
Gold and Silver trading as if oil is at 120$
Yields trading as if oil is at 120$
JPY trading as if oil is at 120$
Stocks trading as if the oil is at 40$
The oil price is 71$
What a mess of a market
I like this idea - since I retired from debating tards - if David Wood can do a couple debates with Orthodox and not get demolished (which he will) - then I’ll consider it. Until then, he’s in the obvious tard bin.