VolRooster

20 year finance professional with expertise in the alts space. Volatility trader. Views are my own. Not financial advice.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@improvingtrader @NickWoolos I believe NASDAQ composite is what the track. The others QQQ, NQ, etc have too much noise built into them so they stick tot he composite only

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@NickWoolos When this happens to me, I focus on finding better trades probabilistically. If a trade is successful 60% of the time (based on historical backtesting) but has had a string of 3 or 4 losses in a row, play that trade. It’s just math at that point. Macro less likely to impact it.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@NickWoolos This market regime has been incredibly difficult. I followed you for a long time and your directional calls have been on. I just think the speed and magnitude of this move has made it very difficult to read. Don’t beat yourself up.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@ctazzo384 @NickWoolos Yep, that was the Powell speech, “expect pain”. NASDAQ down 4% on the day

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@NickWoolos @grok You have nailed a lot of calls over the years. I always value your inputs and contributions here. Definitely one of the few that I have notifications on. I don’t understand for the life of me why you don’t have more followers. Keep up the good work!

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@Citrini7 @vm4888 Certainly has that feel of March 2022. That counter trend rally was vicious. Market went up 10 out of 11 days. TD 9 was the end. Also feels similar to the rally in July/August of that same year.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@NickWoolos @toiletkingcap Agreed but the longest streak ever was 443 sessions. We’re at somewhere around 330 sessions now. So probably sometime within the next 5 months. But records are broken every day in this market, so who knows?

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@NickWoolos @toiletkingcap It’s a stretch but SPX 200 Day is 5720 ish. Probably not tomorrow, but we have gone a long time since testing it. All the way back to November of 2023. At some point soon a test is likely IMO

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@NickWoolos @toiletkingcap Would agree that price is going to do what is doing to do, but people pay attention to MAs and often structure buys and sells at them. So I would say they matter but how much idk.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@Citrini7 First trade ever. $25K Long UVXY on 9/20/21 (Also my wedding anniversary). Watched it deteriorate over 3 months. Added $25K more on 12/31/21. Got bailed out in January and sold all of it for $4k profit on 1/24/22. Dumbest move ever.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@Globalflows Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@NickWoolos Sheep love your stuff and this great. How do you determine failures vs wins? It looks like some of the triggers gained on 3-5% but can’t tell if those are considered failures or wins. Are the red x’s each of the failures?

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@TheFlowHorse So sorry for your loss. Had a similar loss with my second. Took a long time to recover from. I had a lot of guilt thinking I contributed to it. Take time away.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@SoccerMomTrades @SheepTrades I generally agree with this but it’s not like we went straight down to -1.5 std dev line. I know we didn’t technically hit it with the drop on 4/4 but it was pretty close. Since then we had a reversal pop and drop back down. Does time near the area affect the mean reversion?

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@thd_conroy @Ksidiii The CPI print was known for a while. Presumably participants hedged or were prepared for this outcome as a possibility. To be a real catalyst it needs to be something unexpected by market participants.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@Namzes_G 💯

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@KeanuTrades @tradingview Big difference is the ability to see strategy back testing results. On the app it doesn’t have this. If you’re using the desktop browser version you can see strategy win rate, profit factor, etc. which is important if you’re considering entering a trade.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@Globalflows @Ross__Hendricks @majorfish8725 Wasn’t this as of before the Fed meeting? Do you have an updated chart? Curious if positioning has mean fully changed since then.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@petejdunn @Ozard_OfWiz Check VIX daily in January 2018.

[VolRooster @volatilityroost]

@_deepdiveStocks Awesome thanks for the info