After #VIX surges, the S&P 500 rose 85% of the time over the next few months. The 15% where it didn't were coincidental with #recessions.
@ISABELNET_SA
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX is 19.0, which is below the 5-year average (19.9) but above the 10-year average (18.3). #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/h0JjaRint0
The parallels b/w Trump & Nixon are striking – Nixon introduced Tariffs at 10%. Both Presidents:
* Were Republican Presidents riding a populist “red-wave” with blue collar voter support
* Tariffs Introduced at 10% by Nixon and 10-110% by Trump
* Huge political comeback – suspicious of Washington, contemptuous of liberal elites & media they control
* Want to counter their competition for US manufacturing
* Want to drive a wedge between China & Russia
* Promising to end unpopular foreign war you didn’t start
We have been talking these points for months...& very well laid out by with addtional points
@nfergus (# of points above) & @jam_croissant;
@Schuldensuehner; @huwsteenis; @tomkeene 1/ 🧵🧵
Once the VIX index has exceeded 43 (a high of 52 on 4/8/25), forward six- and 12-month equity-market returns have been strong. That is not because volatility itself is good, but because spikes in volatility tend to occur when pessimism is already priced in
HT angelokourkafas
‼️This almost NEVER happened before:
Individual investors' share expressing BEARISH market sentiment for the next 6 months hit 58.9% last week, one of the highest since the Financial Crisis.
Bearish sentiment has been above 55% for 7 weeks STRAIGHT, the longest stretch EVER.
📌 Risk Appetite
The GS risk appetite indicator has fallen sharply into negative territory, signaling a cautious stance among investors. That said, it has stayed above extreme levels and has shown signs of recovery
👉 https://t.co/blMxcoFA78
ht @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx#equities
🇺🇸 S&P 500
The Euphoriameter indicator (a combination of forward P/E, VIX, and bullish sentiment) peaked in November 2024 and continues its downward trend, with no bottoming signal yet
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6p
h/t @Callum_Thomas $spx #spx