w3droid

Signal in the noise 📻

[Michaël van de Poppe @CryptoMichNL]

Today the markets have proven that nothing goes up in a straight line.

I've said this before, and I'll say this again: I'll be selling my positions too early, and I won't regret it.

The game is to be having a consistent return over a long period of time and to compound those returns.

I've sold a lot of my $NEAR in the past days between $2.80-3.00 and I'm happy with the run.

I've rotated that towards $SEI, $W and $EIGEN. Also happy with the returns that I'm seeing in two of them.

I'm a strong bull of NEAR and I'm sure I'll be adding back in, but in the short-term, it looks like we're nearing a peak.

During those heavy runs upwards, there are periods where the markets will shake off everyone with harsh corrections on thos particular assets and that's what we're seeing today.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

Your portfolio won't grow to your ideal target by hitting one big Hail Mary play.

You'll get there through small win, small win, small win - compounding into a much larger long-term outcome.

This is the way you should think about investing.

[Young Ko @YoungKo83]

Maybe I’ll do a long form post but the questions I hear most is “what’s your cycle high for BTC or <insert token>”?

People tend to rely on previous cycle market caps as a barometer, as if it’s some form of ceiling. Bro…that’s just the beginning.

Global liquidity is significantly higher than previous cycles and the amount of leverage entering through tradfi will push capital inflows beyond your imagination. Powell just signaled what the rest of the regulators will do. Succumb to Trump’s support of crypto.

Now we just need to purify and concentrate capital into the quality projects and not all the grifts.

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

Listen up.

The more you stay in this game, the more you realize that this is all a game of 💧liquidity, nothing else and nothing more.

Smart money are the gods that dictate the future of this market for both the bullish and the bearish sides, using Auction Market Theory as the supreme law.

Order blocks, FVGs, premium and discount zones..everything floats around these and some other related concepts.

These entities manipulate 🎭 the prices to their own advantage creating inefficiencies that will, sooner or later, be restored.

Some of them are more powerful than others because are played on HTFs, that’s where smart money focuse their capital and efforts.

They don't spend time on lower timeframes as a significant move from one powerful level would already mean being up gazillions. 💆

Fundamentals are just a reason for retails to never sell because of “alien technology” 👽, something easily chewable for the average newbie, providing exit liquidity for 🐳.

They still do matter 10% (probably less?) as this isn't a stock market type like. (yet, hopefully) where positive cash flow is a synonym for healthy companies, therefore, driving the price of a stock up.

90% of the projects just create an attractive website with fancy trending buzzwords to suck retail interest while there’s no actual use, not of the product nor the token.

Early investors/VCs/”KOLs” get allocations and regurgitate to people the same things:

“This protocol will reshape the Web3” or “It’s a sure 10x, hold, diamond hands 💎”

The same hands that few months later burn themselves with the frying oil from McDonald's. 🍟

Not theirs, but yours.

Have you ever asked yourself why during the whole meltdown retails become so loud blaming projects for lack of delivery?

“What the f*** are you doing? Marketing is a sh**, the protocol doesn't attract people, that’s why I'm losing money with you!”

Is it really because the project doesn't work or is it because 🐳 are selling while releasing bullish fundamental catalysts?

Will it be a coincidence when the prices reverse back up from their HTF demand/OB zones while the news will likely be an “armageddon” 👁️💀 one?

Fundamentals are shinigamis for 🐑, as sad as this can be.

Technical analysis is an 👁️ opener technique reserved for the few.

Study smart money concepts if you want to have THE edge.

[Emperor👑 @EmperorBTC]

Things you must have planned by now.

1. Not to buy a Breakout trade on any of the Coins.

2. Established a Take Profit (Target) for each asset at different levels. ie 20-25% selling target levels.

3. Levels at which you'll accumulate again in 1 year or so.

4. Plan of action in the prolonged range or dump period once the Top happens.

If you aren't planning one step ahead, you're already late.

[FC @FC_0X0]

GCR：我虽然不懂交易，但不妨碍我赚钱啊

🧵作为 Crypto 领域最著名也最神秘的交易员之一，GCR用 1000 美元起步，投资到 1 亿美金。

原来他的交易策略是这样👇

(1/)

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

Oh forgot the little Monday motivation theme, so better late than never:

Chase purpose. Not things.

[Jeremy Allaire - jerallaire.arc @jerallaire]

Tap to pay using USDC on iPhones incoming soon. Wallet devs, start your engines.

https://t.co/D6lsj4saMS

[Vinny Lingham @VinnyLingham]

Simple long term wealth creation advice :

Use income to buy soft assets (equities, businesses, crypto).

Use gains from soft assets to buy hard assets (property, gold, bonds)

Don’t sell hard assets to buy soft assets.

With this strategy you’re constantly accumulating wealth in up or down markets, and moving speculative asset gains into hard assets. Obviously, you lose some upside but over the long term on a risk adjusted basis, you’re creating inflation proof wealth for yourself that you can rely on in retirement.

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

$ROSE | USD

Beautiful sweep and reclaim at the range lows. The blue box should hold, and it offers a great risk/reward here.

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

Altcoin TLDR and a few thoughts:

- Super bullish on where Altcoins are right now; it's the perfect spot to scale in risk/reward-wise. (HTF perspective!!)

- Patience might be needed; focus on higher time frames (HTF) and spot positions.

- Stop worrying about tomorrow's prices; grow some patience and balls.

- When dominance drops, Bitcoin breaks its ATH, ETHBTC breaks up, and the Altcoin total market cap breaks out, the market will become less PvP (and less meme-focused).

[Cole Garner @ColeGarnersTake]

1/ One of the best #bitcoin buy signals this market gives us is close.

Hash Ribbons cuts to the core 👇

[Loma @LomahCrypto]

Going to break this down further:

Federer won over 88% of his first serves and over 55% of his second serves.

When you take the methodology of the original tweet (below) and the above stats, you see that trading isn't all that different.

You're going to miss every other trade you take but there are things that you control (metaphorical first/second serves) that skew that probability significantly in your favor.

Things like: entry price, sizing, asset selection, seeing a trend early, etc.

You can't convince me that trading doesn't adopt the same characteristics as high-level sports.

[CoinMamba @coinmamba]

Dump before the FOMC, pump after. That’s how it works.

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

Buying What’s Hot Now vs. What Will Be Hot Later:

1. Attention market vs entry
2. Tools to find your entry
3. Bitcoin meme token example (one I'm buying now)
4. Other hype niches and my thoughts
---

1. Attention market vs entry
The problem with using Twitter as an alpha source is that you'll be bombarded by what is currently hot.

It’s hard to make money on what is currently hot, and if you do, it should likely be a short-term hype flip. Most people buy the hottest things because of shills telling them why it’s amazing. Regardless of whether the shills make sense, attention and hype aren’t consistently sustainable. Something all over Twitter as the next big thing is often a sign of you buying the top, likely capitulating when it’s 50% down.

> Trust me there's more than often a direct correlation between you running into a token on Twitter and the pico attention tops.

Rather than betting on what is hot now, try to find out what will be hot and going up next, or even simply ‘later’ this cycle.

Sometimes something is hot now, and you think it’ll go up later as well, but it could still be the attention top while it’s all over Twitter.

2. Tools to find your entry

This is a chart I often use for my cycle positioning. But it appears on any time frame. The market constantly, on any time frame, even within a bigger uptrend, moves in roughly these types of cycle structures.

If you see prices going up parabolically and everyone talks about it on Twitter, likely, we are currently in phase 1 of this cycle. And again: this can be on a very low time frame.

What I usually do is:

- Wait for the talks to die out
- Wait for the price to form a steep downtrend
- Wait for prices to reach the original point of going parabolic, roughly, don't need to get there always
- Wait for prices to transition from a steep downtrend into a more ranging environment
- If the sentiment is "back to zero," that is a bonus

You can now either buy the equal lows in the range of what we hope is stage 3 or the reclaim of the range low and stage 4, which is the initial higher high again.

- $WIF initial attention cycle example; you can spot the cycle stages.

3. Bitcoin meme token example (one I'm buying now)

For example, around the Bitcoin halving and Runes launch, some Bitcoin meme tokens were hyped by big accounts, spreading all over Twitter and reaching a pico attention top. Now, with ETHBTC strength and the ETH ETF, Ethereum memes are grabbing attention, while Bitcoin memes feel dead. However, if you believe in the Bitcoin ecosystem, the thesis of undervalued leading memes remains strong. People are naturally drawn to green candles over red ones.

Figure out what makes sense to you and buy when attention is low, not when everyone is talking about it. Even if you think the market cap is undervalued during peak attention, it will likely retrace first. Gradually get exposure instead of buying all at once. For example, I noticed $PUPS when prices shot up from 40 to 110, but I started buying after it retraced to 20-35 and again buying now at 12. Buy gradually, and not all at once.

- I still think the Bitcoin eco will do well.
- Memes are a big part of this cycle.
- I expect a few big memes in the Bitcoin eco.
- Pups cult is still alive.
- Pups sentiment is horrible.

I still think Ethereum will rise and attract attention for longer, while my Bitcoin memes feel dead. But I buy when nobody cares and sell when everyone talks about it.

4. Other hype niches

> Ethereum memes: doing well right now after the ETF and ETHBTC bottom. I still think ETHBTC has a lot of upside, and the market is meh; so I still think this is a nice bet for the coming months.
$PEPE, $FLOKI, $DOGE for example.

> SOL memes: Doing meh now after the ETH ETF, ETHBTC bottom, and ETHSOL strength. Do I think there is more downside for them, or more room to be outperformed; yes. Do I think SOL will go higher later this cycle: yes.
They might be a great buy soon; $BONK on top of my list.

> Bitcoin memes: Already covered this, but again in short: the market has been meh, Solana and Ethereum took the attention while Bitcoin memes topped with the peak attention around the halving and Runes launch. I think they are a great accumulation buy now, but some patience is needed.

Main point of this post:

- These are not shills: figure out what coins and thesis do make sense to you.
- Understand peak attention pico tops, even if the thesis still stands.
- Understand the direct correlation between you finding out about a token and the peak attention pico top
- Understand that it's not 'bad luck' that the coins you buy go down, and the ones you did not buy go up.

[Misha @mishadavinci]

By 2030, web3 & blockchain networks will become the tech infrastructure of choice across the world.

Here's how it plays out:

2024 - Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs ✔️

2025 - Asset Tokenization mainstreams

2025 - USDC becomes the norm for global payments

2025 - GPUs & the AI tech stack are decentralized

2025 - blockchain attestation deployed to counter deepfakes

2025 - the top artists begin using NFTs for event ticketing & fan engagement

2026 - web3 social takes off with users flocking to smaller platforms that focus on specific topics: music, news, sports, tech, etc.

2026 - NFTs become the norm as a marketing tool

2027 - ZK for privacy deployed by major state agencies

2028 - LA Olympics uses blockchain & web3 to manage the games

2029 - the entire financial/ banking world transitions to blockchain

2030 - the Small Business Administration goes all in on tokens as a mechanism for funding

Just a few of the things coming up. What else?

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

I also think ETH | BTC has bottomed or is nearly bottoming out.

> ETH boys gave up
> Half of the timeline shitting on ETH (sol maxis euphoric)
> ETH ETF decision date coming; I think rejection is priced in and bullish.

An ETF rejection into the macro bottom zone; I think it will make the market (a bit) easier and less centralized around SOL ECO and MEMEs.

I also think it will kick off the second part of the bull run where Altcoins truly participate.

[AP @AltcoinPsycho]

Most say the AI bubble will soon burst, I'll be the contrarian &amp; say the bubble's just starting.

It's my highest conviction take since saying $SOL @ $15 was a must-buy

Even VCs are calling the AI top, I don't understand it tbh.