Wagering Edge

“Risk is what’s left over after you think you have thought of everything” VIEWS ARE MY OWN

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@GerardDaffy @RoxyLasVegas Your weekly summaries were second to none!

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@AdamHSport @varenne_it @Solvalla Best run I have seen by a horse, only surpassed recently by Larry in Brisbane recently. Took 25 years.

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

When a bunch of us went to Stockholm to see what this Elitlopp lark was all about, I left seeing the best racing event I have ever been to, won by the best horse that only has Larry in the rear vision mirror.

Nothing has changed 25 years later.

RIP VARENNE - you absolute beast.

[Kirsten Petersen @_kirstenelise]

The best horse in the history of our sport has passed away 🤍

Varenne, ‘’El Capitano’’.

He reached the remarkable age of 31, and will forever be remembered by many around the world.

Grazie Mille.

Rest easy now, champion 🌹

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

👇 most significant turnover driver is average field size.

[Martin Chapman @MartinChapman12]

24 races on turf in the UK today

Only 1, has more than 8 runners

Isn’t enough racing though.

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

REALLY interesting (concerning for racing) to see that a key component of the Sportsbet numbers were ‘…..positive sports performance offset softness in greyhound racing’.

Greys were the turnover growth super power in Australia up until the last few years - what has happened?

[Flutter Entertainment @FlutterEnt]

Today we announce our Q2 2026 Earnings, an encouraging quarter relative to our expectations, which proves the power of both our global scale and the unique benefits of the Flutter Edge.

For information on non-GAAP financial measures and their GAAP reconciliations, or to find out more about the company and its business, please see our Q2 2026 earnings report at https://t.co/fVh5Si0XB3

#FlutterEarnings #FlutterEdge #ChangingTheGame

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

It is imperative in a Senate enquiry, that the facts are presented accurately.

Why then do Adjunct Professor Selvin and the Greens Sen. Hanson-Young refer to the NTRWC as the only bookmaker regulator?

The majority of bookies are not licenced in the NT 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@domran @foxcatcherintel @Nic_Ashman The problem is if the stewards are going to have difficulty quantifying the benefit, then the disincentive isn’t sufficient. One solution is screw down the rules of racing so any breach = serious consequences: fine double/treble prize money earnt and a long stint on the sidelines

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

If there is a wholesale banning of inducements, it’s fair to say that PRA CFO’s will have to recalibrate their turnover forecasts downward.

[The Straight | Racing. Wagering. Breeding. @TheStraightonX]

Two key recommendations of 2023’s You Win Some, You Lose More report, the establishment of a national gambling regulator and the banning of inducements, are expected to be discussed by the Labor Party at this week’s national conference.

Full Story: https://t.co/obMILzun0u

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@AdamHSport @jezzaseal @craig_newitt @boss_glen @RaceQLD @BrittanyTGraham @TheCreekAlbion @ghall27 @HarnessAUS Probably a wagering play consideration as well - I seem to remember seeing some metrics that indicate 12.6 runners is the sweet spot for wagering optimisation in a harness field

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

There are big runs and then there is what LEAP TO FAME did running 2nd in the Interdom Final last night.

Not only did he smash the clock into smithereens, he did it covering extra ground.

Greatest pacer I have seen by some way now.

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@AdamHSport @RaceQLD @TheCreekAlbion @HarnessAUS Hammo - when Larry looked for a moment at the 120 he was going to claw back CM, the roof was lifted off the grandstand. Only ever heard a bigger roar in a race once - Winx 3rd Cox Plate.

Superb night, superb atmosphere. Only issue - bell wasn’t working for the final lap.

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

Intriguing.

What is the incentive for Corporates to bet back into the tote pools with their tote derivatives handle?

[The Straight | Racing. Wagering. Breeding. @TheStraightonX]

Australia’s three tote pools are expected to merge early in the new racing season, with a launch as soon as Winx Stakes day a possibility once final approval from regulators is received.

Full story: https://t.co/aViXMZt3tA

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

A growing problem that needs addressing…but is inherently difficult to address

[Flushing It @flushingitgolf]

Matt Fitzpatrick thinks gambling is “definitely an issue” that’s affecting how fans behave at golf tournaments:

“Yeah, it's a great question because you just look at all the messages people get -- footballers, tennis players, you name it, everyone's getting messages of, oh, you missed that penalty; you cost me this. Oh, you didn't make a birdie; cost me this.

“I've had my fair share. I would say every golfer that's played a professional tournament has had a message of abuse from someone that is related to gambling. I mean, you could see it this week. You go and type in a player's name who maybe isn't playing well, maybe someone who's favored to play well, you type the name into Twitter and you'll just see their name followed by abuse after abuse after abuse.

“It's difficult because I've had 20 quid on England to win the World Cup, but at the same time, if it doesn't come in, I'm not going to send a message to Harry Kane and be like, why did you play rubbish? There's obviously individuals that have that problem.

“I don't know, obviously I don't condone gambling in the slightest. It doesn't -- it's not really for me. It's a thing that me and my mate do every World Cup and Euros, that's it.

“For me, it's definitely becoming a problem and the issue is, particularly in golf, it would be very easy to influence a bet, whether it's you're shouting on someone's backswing, shouting on a putting stroke. It's really easy. Obviously that is really hard to monitor, but it is definitely an issue.”

@MattFitz94 @TheOpen

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@seancalvert1 @seeley_nigel Sean / Nigel - not sure what Nalbandian opened fixed odds when he made the final versus Hewitt in 2002, but he was 1000-1 on Betfair (I know because I had something small on him), same odds available Arthur Fery on the exchange until after he beat Bergs 👍

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@J_Walter23 Good ideas in principle but very difficult to implement practically. The laser focus should be on PoCT, and its ramifications for industry. There are so many intertwined variables, and is seems no one can meaningfully unscramble.

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@craigspeculator @zzzLLOYDYzzz Craig - I am really interested in the 3rd split: I don’t think it is right. Both horses were hard held during the split and they just don’t go sub 26.5 that sectional…so to go 25.7….it seems an outliers outlier to me..and CM to be hard held to the line in a track record? 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

When Nate Silver and his data capabilities acknowledge the Socceroos shooting the lights out on Sunday, it probably shows the gravity of the win from a World Cup perspective.

Rinse and repeat on Saturday please!

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Here are the biggest positive adjustments to our World Cup ratings so far. I think nobody noticed the Australia match because it coincided with the NBA Finals, but that was a good result for them.

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

Andrew Abdo has been a revelation at the NRL, done a remarkable job and will now lead up Tennis Australia.

Top 3 sports administrators in this country - if not the top. Massive coup for TA.

https://t.co/0QPilLP7Oy

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@VaughanLewis1 @streetruffian It’s a very good point - especially when you overlay the channelisation of wagering offshore.

The model for racing is broken in many senses. Need a proper advocacy group that puts all vested interest aside and calls out the real challenges, whilst proposing solutions

[Wagering Edge @wageringedge]

@VaughanLewis1 Vaughan been happening for years off the back of the introduction of PoCT in 2019.

There are little, if any incentives to grow racing wagering now.

The erosion of turnover in the last three FY’s should be alarming for PRA’s but don’t think many like to acknowledge that fact