Wagermetrics

Always looking for an edge. #SellTheTeamBob(AndPhil)

[Wagermetrics @wagermetrics]

@cgarber8 @MoEgger From 2011-2019, there was no correlation between payroll and wins.

The Castellinis are the problem. They need to go.

https://t.co/IIM3OBkpXX

[Jeff Passan @JeffPassan]

Now, the league says the CBT is important for competitive-balance reasons, even though from 2011-19, there was no correlation between payroll and wins. (I did the math.) This much is also true: Every World Series winner during that time started the season with a top 11 payroll.

[Rupali Chadha, M.D.🩺 @RupaliChadhaMD]

I know a lot of nice, church going, relatively pretty single gals in their 30s. As an older married woman, I’ve been talking to men as to why marriage to this cohort may not be attractive and I wanted to share. It may seem harsh, but it’s better to face reality and then contend with it.

 If you're over 30 and you want a husband, there are questions that men will ask themselves but rarely you:

If you’ve been working for the past 10 or 15 years, what do you have to show for it? In other words, do you have assets or debt? The man is trying to figure out if he's your bailout from a life of selfishness.

A lot of women don't realize that they're being evaluated this way, and would regard it as unfair, but it isn't. Women have been applying this test to men for millennia. What have you accomplished with your time on this earth? It’s a universal and fair question!

If you're 20, the answer can be "nothing." You're all potential and learning to assess potential is the key skill for successful marriages in this age range. When you're 30, it cannot be that. You have to accomplish something. It doesn't mean you need money, but it has to be something meaningful.

If not, the man is going to think: she lived a selfish life and now she wants me to rescue her from it, but there's no reason to think she won't continue being selfish.

Men don't want this.

[Wagermetrics @wagermetrics]

@MarinoMLB If no one else would beat it. What are the Tigers to do?

[Andrew Harvie @drewharvie]

To be honest, I’m very much into the idea of the PGA TOUR returning to Sahalee. I know we all love Chambers Bay and it’s a better golf course but I like the idea of seeing them negotiate with trees/having to hit it straight. That sounds like a good event to me; and prime time!

[Wagermetrics @wagermetrics]

@ThreePuttPar__ Forest Highlands (Canyon)

[dom @ryiacy]

Claude Fable estimates the probability of an LLM solving the Jacobian Conjecture this year as <0.1%

[MetaCritic Capital @MetacriticCap]

Superforecaster LLMs are not here

[Andy Johnson @AndyTFE]

That is one of the most absurd birdies I have ever seen.

I do not agree with that rule or ruling and the R&A should be ashamed of what they just allowed to happen at this point in the tournament.

There is no way of actually knowing if a ball ended up in the TIO area if you don't find the golf ball.

[dog @a_musingcat]

a vc told me startups keep raising because talent is expensive so i asked why talent is expensive and he said everyone has to pay $4,000 rent to live near the office so i asked what happens when rents go up again and he said the startups have to raise another round so i said it sounds like he’s feeding his capital to SF landlords and then he started crying

[Bryan Caplan @bryan_caplan]

"Europe explained for Americans."

Pretty good.

[fed_speak @fed_speak]

If you’re not following @mattkalish (President of DraftKings) absolutely beclown himself on here attempting to claim the moral high ground versus the prediction markets it’s really a sight to behold.

Sportsbooks in this country are predatory AF with no high ground to stand on.

[Wagermetrics @wagermetrics]

@WaterworldCapi1 Memory is actually worse bc you can't make more oil.

[Alex Hardin @fearmyturtleDFS]

its very simple

[Ben Cary @Ben_Cary_]

This made layup in 2023 by Nick Boyd caused such an insane butterfly effect for the career trajectory of Dusty May @ryanhammer09

[Kyle Porter @KylePorterNS]

I think you could talk me into playing every U.S. Open at either Pinehurst or Shinnecock.

[Michael Caley @MC_of_A]

the dog that hasn't barked at this world cup is the new automated offside system and how much less time we are all wasting arguing about refereeing instead of talking about the games

they've more or less solved offside with technology and it's a huge upgrade to the experience

[Wagermetrics @wagermetrics]

@brianschatz well voters of one of the parties will

[Wagermetrics @wagermetrics]

@OnodaCapital SATS deal w/ SPCX also hasn't closed and won't for a while

[based16z @based16z]

a long winding decade of stocks becoming cryptocurrencies

[Sid Prabhu @sidprabhu]

If your models are so smart, why are you still paying Nvidia 80% gross margins?

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

I think this is a very important point. Big 7 management are clearly not “retards”, they see the way the puck is going and AI represents an existential threat - imminently - to huge chunks of their businesses (esp Google).

That is obvious and means endless capex to win AI race is not optional - it’s almost like maintenance capex at this point - but given it’s forced there is a huge chance it’s malinvestment/just a massive waste of money.

Obviously, in this scenario all the CEOs will tell you it’s not a woodchipper, it’s actually got amazing ROEs to it attached. Internally I bet you there are SOS emails going back and forth (“we have to spend the money Sergey otherwise we fucked anyway”).

It’s just another technology transition where the incumbents are petrified their current businesses are the horse and buggy. They will obviously spend anything, anything, to try to avoid that fate.