🚨 NEW paper out in @PSRMJournal with @lockhartm, Huber, and Gerber: Common polling methods can significantly overestimate attitude change. We show a null effect of Trump’s felony conviction on vote choice using eight-wave panel data.
🔗 https://t.co/gyUt5phJOH
I love Oprah but am not a fan of Oprah-style tax policy: "Tipped workers, YOU get a tax break! Teachers, YOU get a tax break! Overtime workers, YOU get a tax break!"
My latest in @nytopinion on the case for raising tax revenue rather than racing to cut
https://t.co/nlGMkm46If
New: A top White House aide intervened to get a $620 million Pentagon loan for a company tied to Donald Trump Jr.
“The call came from the White House: We have to get this done,” said one person involved.
https://t.co/duvJ0cQ9bH
SCOOP: Recent internal polling from the pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising PAC shows Talarico has a 7-point lead against Paxton. The PAC says it's brought in "a number" of six-figure donations/commitments since Trump endorsed Paxton last week. w/ @adamwren
https://t.co/r9XeGzZXRV
Breaking News: Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general who was endorsed by President Trump, ousted Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary for Senate in Texas, a result likely to energize both MAGA loyalists and Democrats hoping to flip the seat. https://t.co/8ifZavhwyR
From our February Issue: Mass Versus Donor Attitudes on the Importance of Supreme Court Nominations by BRANDICE CANES-WRONE, @JKastellec and NICOLAS STUDEN. https://t.co/ZHWnAN1tYF
Scoop: The top lawyer at the Treasury Department suddenly stepped down on Monday.
Comes in the wake of the Trump admin's $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization fund."
⚖️ Do major campaign scandals change voters’ minds?
➡️ @lockhartm G. Huber, A. Gerber, J. Walker II show Donald Trump’s felony conviction had virtually no effect on his supporters, while common survey methods produce conflicting estimates https://t.co/YXjlK39iQ2 #FirstView
Just dropped my second Substack post! Using broadcast news transcript data, @cantstopkevin and I look at how media consolidation is softening news coverage of Trump. We also have an app that we’ll launch soon where folks can track broadcast and digital news coverage of the president across different outlets. Stay tuned!
https://t.co/s3qYyTuDSQ
@YamilRVelez@YaleLawSch@PUPolitics@NSF Thanks Prof. Velez! Your experimental research course played a big role in my decision to pursue empirical political science.
Change of plans! I’m excited to be pursuing J.D.-Ph.D. study at @YaleLawSch and @PUPolitics.
I’ll head to Princeton as an @NSF Graduate Research Fellow this fall and begin at YLS in 2027. Thanks again for the support.
Our paper on how Democrats and Republicans vote on state/local referendums, nonpartisan offices, and partisan elections is in the latest issue of the American Political Science Review.
Feel free to contact us if you're interested in any aspect of this cast vote record data.
President Obama wanted to honor America's 250th anniversary with something special... Then Larry David called.
Life, Larry and The Pursuit of Unhappiness premieres June 26 on HBO Max.
How can we measure whether an event impacts public opinion?
Our new @PSRMJournal shows the Manhattan trial had no effect on support for Trump and that leading cross-sectional methods fail to identify the "real" null effect uncovered by panel designs.
https://t.co/mjuKeENjoG
🚨 NEW paper conditionally accepted at @PSRMJournal: Gerber, Huber, @lockhartm, and I use large-scale panel data on Trump's felony conviction to show that common polling methods can significantly overestimate attitude change. 🧵: 1/7
🚨 NEW paper out in @PSRMJournal with @lockhartm, Huber, and Gerber: Common polling methods can significantly overestimate attitude change. We show a null effect of Trump’s felony conviction on vote choice using eight-wave panel data.
🔗 https://t.co/gyUt5phJOH