Wall St Action

Just here for the financial market action! Tweets are not financial investment advise.

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

FinTwit Friday 5:
(5 Q&A’s with some of X’s favorite financial minds)

This week we get to know @JeffMacke a bit more. A big thank you to Jeff for sharing his insight and feedback! (Not financial advice)

Q1: How long have you been trading financial markets?

A1: I don’t really consider myself a trader, to be honest. It insults traders. I invest then apply leverage selectively. I think it’s a process everyone should start as young as possible. For me that’s 45yrs, give or take. My dad started teaching me.

Q2: What motivates you to keep sharing your insights on X?

A2: I like to teach. Always have. I also sort of don’t mind being a know it all sometimes and love sharing opinions on all manner of things. So… those reasons and networking with genuinely smart people. Gotta share value to get it back

Q3. What piece of advice would you give your younger self as it relates to trading/investing?

A3: Trade much, much less. Buy and hold > everything. Whenever you get a chance to take the other side of “America is failing” take the other side as big as you can without leverage. (The timing is tricky, the trade has never failed)

Q4: If you could have lunch with 1 person past or present who would it be and why?

A4: My dad when he was my age, but that’s personal. He died of corticobasal degeneration, starting in his early 50s. He lived another 20yrs. It’s a cruel disease. Anyway, I don’t know how much of him I really “knew”. I have a lot of questions. Practically, the lesson is one of being able to know yourself best through the window of your parents; which of course effects investing. Personally, just know yourself best through parents while they’re here, as best you can.

I’ve met Warren Buffet, Carl Icahn, Munger… all of ‘em. You’d need more than lunch with them to learn what their magic is and there’s a very remote chance you’ll be able to apply it.

Q5: How much do you attribute your success to luck versus skill?

A5: That's a more complicated question than it appears. I think, to a degree, everyone has elements of both tragedy and good fortune. My dad becaome CEO of Dayton Hudson (now Target) when he was only 44. I was incredibly lucky to have him as a role model regarding the values of hard-work and upward mobility. My dad also started dying of an incredibly rare degenerative brain disease when he was 54. His judgement, memory and body declined for 15 years. It took a tremendous emotional and financial toll on the whole family. Professionally, I spent years of my career controlling the situation. I'm not sure where that nets out in terms of 'luck' as far as my background is concerned. If you live long enough you expereience enough good and bad luck to define your life, if you let it. I guess the skill is in coping with both the good and the bad.

Please repost/share if you’ve enjoyed this week’s “FinTwit Friday 5”. Thank you!

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

Nice summaries here of recent info provided by $HROW $CRDO $HIMS $TMDX

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

It's a big month for investor conferences... many of our top holdings are presenting multiple times.

Yesterday it was $HIMS, $TMDX, $MDB, $PRCT, $CIFR and several others.

Today it's $CRDO, $ALAB, $APP, $RDDT, $HROW, $PLTR, $NBIS, $CRWV, $EOS, $RBRK, $LITE and several others.

I'll keep this thread going with notes from some of the presentations.... (below is $TMDX, $HROW, $HIMS)

$TMDX (CEO) - mostly repeating stuff from the last couple investor presentations and earnings calls... talked about the current investment cycle, OCS 2.0 for heart and lungs, OCS Kidney and CHOPS... I'm growing more excited about CHOPS because I do believe it will be additive and not cannibalistic.

Right now there are approximately 90k transplants every year in the US and Europe, there's another 90k transplants in the rest of the world. 50% of these transplants are using cold storage because preservation times are under 3-4 hours which means they were unlikely to ever use OCS for warm perfusion. Until now, $TMDX never had a product for cold preservation / cold perfusion... going forward they'll have OCS for half the transplant market and CHOPS for the other half of the transplant market.

Last year $TMDX gave their long-term case targets of 10k in 2028, 20k in 2030 and 30k in 2032. Not only has management reiterated these targets multiple times but they've also said it doesn't include CHOPS. I crunched some numbers and I believe CHOPS can add at least 2k cases to the 2028 number, 4k cases to the 2030 number and 6k cases to the 2032 number (all of these increases are conservative).

The biggest takeaway from the presentation yesterday is that Waleed talked about revenue targets for the first time ever and he repeated those targets at least 2x which means he didn't slip up. He meant to share this information and it's very likely he's already discussed these financial targets with his team and got their blessing.

When I heard Waleed share these numbers my jaw dropped because they're above my bull case estimates. It's very clear the market doesn't believe $TMDX can hit these numbers otherwise the stock would not be trading in the highs $60s. It's always possible that Waleed is being too optimistic and discounting possible risks or headwinds however he knows this business and industry better than anyone so I'm going to trust him and his experience.

Waleed said $TMDX can get to $2.5-3.0B within 4-5 years. If we assume $TMDX hits the high end of their range this year it means $757M in 2026 revenues.

In order for $TMDX to get to $3.0B revenues within 5 years... it would be a 31.7% revenue CAGR for the next 5 years... clearly some significant revenue acceleration would need to happen over the next 18-36 months which I believe will happen with OCS 2.0, OCS Kidney, CHOPS and International expansion.

Right now $TMDX is trading at 3.5x NTM revs and 14x NTM ebitda during a period of higher investments and lower margins. Waleed has said that operating margins could hit 30% in the next few years... which could put them on track to have net income margins in the 24% range within 5 years as they're hitting $3.0B in revenues.

Here's how we get to $3.0B within 5 years which is 2032 if we're starting at the end of 2026 which lines up with their 2032 case target of 30k however I believe CHOPS will add at least 6k to that number.

So, lets go with 36k cases in 2032 at an average of $80-85k per case (OCS/CHOPS + NOP) = approx $3.0B revenues

If we assume net income margins can improve to 24% by 2032 which looks more likely after they introduce OCS 3.0 which will allow remote monitoring and a bunch of other cost savers... then net income in 2032 could be $720M... add back the cash... assume 45M shares... using a very reasonable 25x multiple = $460 stock price which is a 41% CAGR over the next 5.5 years.

if they do hit $3B revenues in 2032, it's possible net income margins could be higher than 24%, also possible the market is willing to pay more than 25x earnings because $ISRG currently trades with 2.5x PEG ratio and $TMDX would be growing earnings faster than 30% YoY in 2032 in order to hit the numbers I've outlined above.

$HROW (CEO) - talked about their existing eyecare portfolio, talked about some of their pipeline products including G-MELT, most important thing I heard was reiterating their 2027 Q4 revenue guidance of $250M

As I've stated before, if $HROW gets to that $250M quarterly revenue number by the end of next year... not only would it be a 67.5% CAGR from 2025 Q4 to 2027 Q4... but it would put them on track to do $1.1B revenues in CY2028, likely with 35-40% (or better) ebitda margins which means CY2028 ebitda might be around $400M and right now the stock has an enterprise value of $1.4B... likely a 6-bagger (or better) in the next 2 years if they hit these numbers.

$HIMS (CFO) - nothing new, talked about how they're disrupting healthcare, branded GLPs, building & integrating ai into lots of different aspect of the platform, the Eucalyptus acquisition, growth opportunities in US and non-US, peptides and reiterated 2030 guidance of $6.5B revenues and $1.3B ebitda (which I expect them to raise with Q2 earnings to $7.5B revenues and $1.5B ebitda)

Currently listening to $CRDO presentation then the rest of my day/week is full with replays.

NFA.
DYOR.
*We have positions in all stocks/tickers mentioned in this post.

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@JonahLupton Excellent summaries Jonah. Going to definitely share this post for others…

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@EmmaStockNotes @TheRonnieVShow $TMDX $IREN $APP would be on my list as well as the others you all named

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@mathlonning $RDDT is overdue!!

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@WisemanCap @JonahLupton $RDDT is due!

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

$CRWD this below 👇

[Ophir Gottlieb @OphirGottlieb]

$CRWD This may be the first time that we actually see a software company of substantial scale, actually realize ARR accleration due to AI. I don’t mean say big words, I mean, literally, accelerate its large ARR base with new scale.

This result, if people are careful to read it, can turn the bearish AI narrative that it won’t ever make anyone any money other than the chip companies, totally upside down.

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@Pharmdca Time for Facebooky to wake up and join the party!

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@benjitaylor @elonmusk How very X-tra of you :)

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

Bullish for $CRWD ?

[Sam Badawi @Sam_Badawi]

$CRWD named former $NVDA AI and cybersecurity leader Dr. Bartley Richardson as Chief AI Officer to lead Charlotte AI, AI Detection & Response, and the company’s broader Security AGI strategy.

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@troyofsparta @aleabitoreddit $253

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@EmmaStockNotes @amitisinvesting Glad I was awake last night when Jensen was speaking!!

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@LongGameEquity Agreed and likely not slowing down anytime soon

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

$PANW longs be like this right now…

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@Mr_Derivatives You have 2 kidneys, don’t sweat it :)

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@Pharmdca A 6 handle and this gets really interesting

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@AdamMancini4 Thanks Adam, really do appreciate your morning updates.

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@EmmaStockNotes @caleb_investTML @PLHstock @invest091 @HartofLearning Congrats Emma!

[Wall St Action @WallStAction]

@JonahLupton Good stuff Johah, thanks for sharing.