王维

【20%返佣】币安注册：CBA321
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[王维 @wangweibtc]

$NBIS

[王维 @wangweibtc]

$XFAB

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

@jim29223471 Can’t give advice on what you should do.

But personally I think $XFAB valuations are a joke at $1.45B MC if they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics supply chain efforts.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Names like:

- $ASX
- Sumitomo Electric
- $JBL
- $VICR
- $GFS
- $AAOI
- AlChip
- $TSEM
- $FN
- Furukawa Electric
- $CLS
- $NBIS
- $NOK
- $AMKR
- $LITE
- $COHR

Off the top of my head.

So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range.

Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit?

(Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above)

I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns.

Still feels like many of these have room to go.

[王维 @wangweibtc]

@aleabitoreddit @ai_9684xtpa 我帮你买一点

[王维 @wangweibtc]

@aleabitoreddit

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Nah, Jim Cramer is like the 4th Newton’s Law.

Inverse Cramer just written into the laws of the universe.

I’ve been bullish on $RDDT since $140.

But Cramer was telling everyone to buy Reddit the entire time since Feb.

So it’s been flat.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector.

I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique.

Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk.

Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times:

-> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear).

-> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced.

In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover:

1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry
2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together
3. Mass production capability at low cost.

For each humanoid made.

Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling.

Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components.

As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors.

But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China.

So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains.

Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth:

Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March.

But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large, if he's expecting millions of humanoids to be produced a year.

So my expectation is the current $10.65B MC would look very tiny in hindsight of LeaderDrive's market capture of the overall robotics market.

So I don't believe thesis like this should be measured in short term timeframes (or that people should actively trade names like these).

Moreso a long term investment idea about how this company could capture a material part of the overall humanoid market that exponentially grows over the next few years.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection:

It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?

If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.

Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.

$RPI is the perfect example:

1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.

Earnings comes out and I was right.

Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).

So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.

For stuff like $AXTI:

1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls.
7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations.
8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc.

A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up.

With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing:

1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player.
2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here.
3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows).
4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts?
5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess.

_

I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life.

So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers

Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years.

Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels.

Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs.

Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid.

So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff.

Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

[王维 @wangweibtc]

实力最强的应该是西班牙和法国
其次是 英格兰 巴西
阿根廷和葡萄牙实力一般，
德国荷兰也不错
日本我觉得实力比葡萄牙强一点
现在的日本真的很强了 上一届赢德国西班牙
美国快乐足球，记得上一届踢荷兰，差距太大了
挪威 突尼斯预选赛踢的很好
瑞典踢的很差
上一届的超级黑马摩洛哥也值得期待
上一届踢葡萄牙直接对攻击，葡萄牙根本踢不过，踢西班牙就防守反击，最终淘汰西班牙。
不知道现在的巴西实力到底怎么样，上一届是真的太强了，估计是踢假球了。
上一届阿根廷夺冠主要是国际足联特别偏袒了，这一届我买了他不能夺冠

https://t.co/j4JgQrWGtW

[王维 @wangweibtc]

世界杯来了 ，我是真正的球迷啊 哈哈
买了点韩国小组赛不能出线
另外买了阿根廷不能夺冠，挪威不能进决赛
本届世界杯
纸面实力 西班牙和法国最强
这两个冠军可能性比较大
个人是西班牙死忠粉，希望西班牙夺冠
另外希望佛得角踢的好一点

https://t.co/sxSXODPKvW

[王维 @wangweibtc]

最近对比了一下
最好用的还是 #盈透 #ibkr
嘉信也注册了，感觉有点复杂

https://t.co/djqsn4gTc8

[IBM @IBM]

@trythreews We're super excited about this 😀

[王维 @wangweibtc]

我刚在 @Polymarket 上交易了。

来跟我对赌： https://t.co/sxSXODPKvW

[王维 @wangweibtc]

$XFAB

[王维 @wangweibtc]

@aleabitoreddit

[王维 @wangweibtc]

ibkr 盈透非常好用啊，界面看着真舒服！
嘉信也注册了，感觉复杂多了
https://t.co/djqsn4gTc8
海外地址证明也很简单了

[王维 @wangweibtc]

@jason_chen998 瞎几把扯

[王维 @wangweibtc]

ethereum:0xb0076de78dc50581770bba1d211ddc0ad4f2a241

关于“4400万美元钱包砸盘”的传言
这是引发本次暴跌在社区内讨论最广的链上原因。根据多方链上数据监测和市场流传的分析，有特定巨鲸（或关联钱包）控制着价值约 4400 万美元 的大额代币，这些代币被发现通过分发地址逐��转入交易所进行抛售，从而直接引发了市场流动性的崩溃和恐慌性砸盘。

[王维 @wangweibtc]

正在看黄仁勋的直播
看看可以买什么股票吗
https://t.co/1dxZ4bfFHQ