Waters Into Wine |3,3|

[Waters Into Wine |3,3| @watersintowine]

$PAGS reminder

[Waters Into Wine |3,3| @watersintowine]

@KoyfinCharts $PAGS P/E: 9.85x
Was in 20-80 range in 2018-2022

$PAGS EV/EBITDA: 0.37x
Was 1.5-2.5 historically

$PAGS Price to Sales: 0.96x
Was in 20-55 range in 2018-2022

$PAGS Price to Free Cash Flow: 5.29x

Like $PYPL, but $PAGS cheaper and more likely to double from here

[Billy Oppenheimer @bpoppenheimer]

After his second year at Michigan, Tom Brady wanted to transfer.

He wasn't playing in games, and he was so low on the depth chart that he only got 2 reps in practice.

Brady met with his coach to express his frustration, “The other quarterbacks get all the reps.”

Coach replied,

“Brady, I want you to stop worrying about what all the other players on our team are doing. All you do is worry about what the starter is doing, what the second guy is doing, what everyone else is doing. You don't worry about what you're doing.”

Coach reminded him, “You came here to be the best. If you're going to be the best, you have to beat out the best.”

And then he recommended that Brady start meeting with Greg Harden, a sports psychologist who worked in Michigan's athletic department.

Brady went to Harden's office and whined, “I'm never going to get my chance. They're only giving me 2 reps.”

Harden simply replied, “Just go out there and focus on doing the best you can with those 2 reps. Make them as perfect as you possibly can.”

“So that's what I did,” Brady said. “They'd put me in for those 2 reps, man, I'd sprint out there like it was Super Bowl 39. 'Let's go boys! Here we go! What play we got?'”

“And I started to do really well with those 2 reps. Because I brought enthusiasm, I brought energy.”

Soon, it went from getting 2 reps to getting 4 reps. Then from 4 to 10, “and before you knew it,” Brady said, with this new mindset that Greg instilled in me—to focus on what you can control, to focus on what you're getting, not what anyone else is getting, to treat every rep like it's the Super Bowl—eventually, I became the starter.”

Takeaway 1:

Greg Harden telling Brady to just focus on being great during his 2 reps reminded me of a piece of advice from the entrepreneur Mark Cuban.

“People come to me all the time and tell me they're stuck,” Cuban explained. “They're stuck in a job they don't like. They're stuck working for a boss they don't like. They're stuck on a team they don't like.”

“I just tell them, 'Be great.'”

“The reality of life is that you can't just always quit your job. You can't just always go to your boss and say, 'Give me the promotion, or I'm out of here.'” You can't just always go to your coach and say, 'Give me more reps, or I'm transferring.'

“So when you're stuck, you've gotta find it within yourself to say, 'Ok, this is where I am. And if I'm going to be here, I'm going to be great.'

Because if you're great at your job, typically other people and companies find out, so it creates opportunities.”

Takeaway 2:

I've written before about “lead measures”—the actions and behaviors that predictably drive success.

The core characteristic of a lead measure, the authors of The 4 Disciplines of Execution (4DX) write, is that “a lead measure is influenceable; it can be directly influenced by you.”

To achieve your goals, they recommend (echoing what the Michigan Coach told Brady), apply a disproportionate energy to the things that are in your control.

Starting at Michigan and for the rest of his career, that’s what Brady did, that’s what drove his success.

In his first media call after he was selected by the New England Patriots with the 199th pick in the 2000 draft, Brady was asked: “Are you aware that [along with starting quarterback, Drew Bledsoe] there’s another quarterback here that they drafted last year?”

Brady said he was aware of that. “And I know he’s a heck of a player,” Brady said. “But I’ve always really concerned myself just with the things I can control. I don’t put a lot of thinking into the other guys because I know I’m not at my best when I’m not just thinking about playing as well as I possibly can.”

- - -

“I never once in my life ever said I wanted to be the best of all time. Ever. I wanted to be the best I could be, period. I learned that in college. It didn’t matter what the other guys were doing. It mattered what I was doing.” — Tom Brady

Follow @bpoppenheimer for more content like this!

[Ed Bradford @Fullcarry]

USTs with a quiet bid this morning led by the front end that got smacked yesterday. 5s30s 5 bps steeper with 20y auction later today marking the last of long-end auctions for the month.

[𝐀𝐢𝐫𝐥𝐨𝐯𝐬𝐤𝐲 🇺🇦🇨🇦 @airlovsky]

$NFLX is leading the way

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

At the pace of what it did during May-October 2023, the reverse repo facility would be drained by April 2024.

If it keeps the recent acceleration from August-October 2023, then it would be drained within January 2024.

[Harmonic Patterns @AltcoinGem]

A Possible scenario on $SPY if fail to hold above 433.

[Manz🌪 @ManzTrades]

$SPY Daily

- Tomorrow will be Day 7 inside "the range"

- 431 -> 437.5; you should know it like the back of your hand at this point.

- 418 or 448.5 once this breaks imo and it will be an explosive move.

- Take your Pick 🧨

[Fernando @fernandowavesfx]

SP500 if keeps H and S 1 H it will drop to 4240 again before rally again
If you want short SP500 now the opportunity with SL 4400 Tp 4240
Keep the long from 4235 still open as its running good profits yet

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

$VIX 25 ⏰

[HY6 @highyield6]

Interesting

[Waters Into Wine |3,3| @watersintowine]

Holy 😂

[rizz! (おはよう) @rizzleso]

While Fintwit keeps talking about Black Monday, here’s a fun stat.

We’ve been green 15 times in a row on Monday.

🤔

$SPY

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Bottom-line, the only thing that matters is this, all the rest if the narrative will get run over by market flows.

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

Have a nice evening everyone

[Swordfish @Swordfishv44183]

Breadth leads the market. Following the 2022 lows, breadth improved drastically, leading to a market rally.

We're now seeing the opposite, as the measure of how many S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average is declining aggressively off of a market high.

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

🔮 New Post: 10 Year Rate to 5%? MOVE Index Cycles Analysis

$MOVE $TNX $IEF $TLT #bonds #cycles

https://t.co/ewSZF1Obog

[Mlabs0967 @mlabs0967]

Played this very poorly. Those pinks were a gift. over thought & let bias take me out of the game. Failed Pinks are rare & majority of players are neg or playing cautious. All its done is pulled into 1st Pink print of 4340/30 & defend. If #ES_F gets > 4440 could easily test 4520

[Namzes Cycles @Namzes_G]

The only thing that stands between you and happiness is your mindset. You need 2 things to unlock it:
-Purge negative thoughts from your mind
-Rid yourself of desires for more things (materialism). The things you own end up owning you.
I try to take 1 step a day towards both. It’s not easy. Even a few minutes of Mediation helps you clear your mind from clutter. 🧘🏻‍♂️

[Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc]

What is the true sign for a new bull market in small caps?

“IG/Treasury yields and junk yield both fall. Junk yields fall faster, leading to a narrowing spread.” @WallSt_SunTzu

$RTY_F $IWM

[Harvey 🇺🇸 @AlphaSubRosa]

Discipline and determination. Potent tools for self improvement.

[Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc]

Will the same reasons they fell in 2022 be the reasons they fall in 2024? 😉

#GrowthToValue
#USD #10Y #WTIC
#Magnificent7
#ConcentrationRisk

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

After 5 red weeks, #ES_F has put in its 1st green week; caused by reclaiming its bull market trendline from Oct 2022 at 4320. Now, bulls must hold

Plan: 4345, 4320-25=support. As long as 4320 lowest holds the next leg targets 4400, dip, 4477. 4320 fails, new lows to 4230 likely