Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social)

See y'all on a platform not run by an edgelord boosting a mendacious, misogynist, fossil fuel loving, fascists' friend for POTUS. GFY Musk.

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@Whatareyouthin6 @jonathanstea And how much they can deadlift. Don't forget that. (Which is why I paid no attention to Stephen Hawking).

[dave lawrence 🐟🐟🐠 @dave43law]

Another day - another deceased troll 🤣🤣🤣
It was murder..........

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@HaShem_GAZA_ @malonebarry And there aren't many prisons in which the prison guards fire bullets at the inmates when they're queuing for their meals.

[Just Stop Oil @JustStop_Oil]

Just because the tories are going extinct doesn't mean we all have to.

https://t.co/4pz2RVOdix

[Owen Jones @owenjonesjourno]

This is devastating.

Over a hundred BBC staff have signed a letter declaring they've been forced to do PR for Israel.

Just the latest chapter in the biggest scandal of Western journalism of our time

https://t.co/cgPpEZOK0U

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@Spriderz @AlanHol39083774 @ejwwest @Artemisfornow You need to read this:
https://t.co/qJueAd8Z9E
As for Mars, its average atmospheric density is only 2% that of Earth's, being about the same as Earth's at 35km above the surface. Coupled with its extra distance from the Sun, it's temperature is hardly surprising.

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

☀️The sun is brighter than for over 23 years.

This contributes to all the temperature high and sea ice low records being broken.

🌍🌡️📈 🌊🌡️📈 🧊➡️🌊

Bring in the human caused climate change deniers, it's the sun!
But don't get too exited. The current average (global, 365 days, 24 hour) 12-month solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere is only +0.4 W/m² (Watts per square meter for the average 510,000,000,000,000 m² of Earth's surface) higher than the lowest value in 2008.

The amount of solar radiation that Earth absorbs
has increased much more. This is caused by a decrease in the reflectivity (albedo) of our planet.

Because of less (sea) ice and snow and decreasing aerosol and clouds, Earth now absorbs about +2 W/m² more sunlight.
And now the same deniers will double down and say it is the sun and not greenhouse gases.

That's not a strange first thought.

Earth's Emitted Thermal Radiation has increased, while we are being told that greenhouse gases should decrease outgoing heat radiation.
Physics tells us that Earth radiates more thermal radiation as she gets warmer. That happens at temperature in Kelvin to the fourth power (Planck radiation feedback: σT^4).

Earth warmed by about 0.5°C in the past 23 years. With that the outgoing heat radiation should have increased by about 3 W/m².

But it increased by only ~1 Wm². The increased greenhouse gases (mainly CO2, methane, N2O and Water Vapor) absorb ~2 W/m² of the increase in heat radiation.

These are the forcings (and WV feedback) that cause the planet to heat up.

Without the greenhouse gases humans have put in the atmosphere in the past 270 years, the outgoing heat radiation would be about 4 W/m² higher and Earth would be rapidly cooling down:
So yes, the sun is currently making warming worse than it would be if the 11-year solar cycle was at its low point.

Let's use this fact to understand the rapid changes that are happening, not to deny that we have a lot of challenges ahead.

----

Thank you for reading such a long text on Twitter..
Please let me know if you have any questions or feedback.

I'm trying out these notes with embedded figures to help explain crucial recurring climate questions.

----

Disclaimer: These forcing and flux numbers written here were all rough ballpark numbers, to help understand the main forces at play.

Data in figures shown is from NASAS CERES EBAF Ed.4.2, available here: https://t.co/eJ8IsUTBno

Effective Radiative Forcing figure is from this recent paper:

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

@piersforster et al. 2023:
https://t.co/sApdsa8yqZ

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@RedLaser4000 @SMTHFC1 Are you suggesting there's no greater expectation on Israel (a country with which we've had relatively strong diplomatic, cultural and commercial ties) to uphold international law and human rights, than there is on the regimes, insurgents and rebels in the countries you list?

[Jonathan Cook @Jonathan_K_Cook]

The BBC, which has been downplaying – or more usually ignoring – Israeli atrocities in Gaza every day for 13 months, dedicates 2 minutes of its hour-long lunchtime news to the ICC issuing an arrest warrant against Netanyahu for committing crimes against humanity.

Those two minutes are from their Jerusalem correspondent, explaining why Netanyahu and Israelis will disagree. That's it.

Nothing on the diplomatic significance.

Nothing on how this will strengthen the genocide case against Israel at the World Court.

Nothing from international law experts.

Nothing on how embarrassing this is for Israel's patrons like the UK and US.

And nothing, of course, on how it leaves western politicians – and media like the BBC – dangerously exposed for their complicity in the genocide.

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@MaureenWRC @SangitaMyska @dudulives24 @metpoliceuk @MetCC The right to free speech isn't a right to break the law and it doesn't give you immunity from the consequences of doing so. Here's an example of legislation which the right to free speech doesn't override:
https://t.co/c5g75DVEl1

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

"Nothing to hide, nothing to fear."
Why this is nonsense on stilts. Reason #153.
(See the parent post for context)

https://t.co/OJwiGKJ0SC

#surveillance #ANPR

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@MarkTrewick1 @dpcarrington "Damien Carrington's statement, while well-intentioned, could be seen as lacking depth or specificity for several reasons"
Do you think that might be because it's a rallying cry delivered via a tweet, not an IPCC report, COP agreement or policy manifesto?

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@Mr_Lick @T_Extinguishers @edinburghpaper @EdinburghLive_ @ScotNational @timesscotland @SundayTimesScot @ScottishSun @BBCScotlandNews @elpaisinenglish @Publico @STVNews Quite the perspicacious take. Next up: vegans who envy meat eaters and animal rights campaigners who really just want to slaughter animals.

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@TomCase79066776 @GaryClarke27 @CharlieJGardner What's this got to do with climate science or with whether or not Matthew Wielicki is a fraud? Physics and chemistry doesn't care what people at the World Bank are up to. Is this really something that needs to be pointed out to you?

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@NelsonAlmUK @BobFromAccounts @LouHaigh Oh dear. You suck at climbing down from high horses. I think the sentences you were actually looking for go something like:
"Ah, how embarrassing. I feel a right charlie now. Sorry about that Bob. I'll get my coat..."

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@TomCase79066776 @GaryClarke27 @CharlieJGardner Everything that happens does so within the context of our destabilising climate. Wielicki may have quit academia and now spends his time reiterating the same talking points as the fossil fuel-funded think tanks, but he understands this as well as anyone.
https://t.co/TqaRh33Diw

[Ceist @Ceist8]

Examples of the climate change disinformation posted by self-proclaimed "expert" Matthew Wielicki (He's not)

The first time I encountered him in Aug 2022 I asked him why he had a fake blog graph by a non-scientist as his header.

Debunking thread:

1/

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@TomCase79066776 @GaryClarke27 @CharlieJGardner A year's worth of rain in 8 hours. Yep, totally normal 🙄

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@GaryClarke27 @CharlieJGardner So rather than face uncomfortable physical truths, you've dismissed an entire cluster of related sciences and the tens of thousands of scientists working within them, and fabricated your own explanation instead? Can we all do this about things we don't want to have to deal with?

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@VoteReform2029 @JulesBywaterLee @processangel1 @MarinaPurkiss No. CO2 is a "greenhouse gas". It affects our climate, but is not directly damaging to health. Local air quality is affected by pollutants like carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter from brakes, tyres, ICE exhausts, wood burners, etc.

[Robert Reich @RBReich]

Some people seem to have forgotten how bad a president Trump was, so I made a list of the 100 Worst Things About the Trump Presidency, in no particular order. Please share and add anything I missed. 🧵

[Roger Lancefield (@spudger.bsky.social) @waxlithical]

@adiosmuchachos4 @GaryGaryholman @BladeoftheS Indeed. When he was sued by Jeremy Vine in the UK High Court, Joey Barton's lawyers tried to use a similar defence. Barton was deemed to have defamed Vine and had to pay out £75,000.