Walter Cavinaw

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

@pineconemacro And as Rory points out, the only thing that matters in the medium term is production restarts.

Soh transits obviously help short term but are effectively transfers between inventory (like spr).

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

@AaronSepulvedaC Milei is definitely a schizo...

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

@albertvancouver Yep, pretty much ruined my love of Star wars!

[Steve Saretsky @SteveSaretsky]

This is totally bananas.

[Dan Albas @DanAlbas]

There are citizens in my riding who are unable to afford their mortgage renewal. The only options for them are to sell at a loss or face foreclosure & a court ordered sale. This is why court ordered sales are on the rise in BC. There are no bailouts for them but they will be paying for Carney's bailouts for corporate developers in Vancouver.

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

Mou price action drove a new narrative: we will shortly get back to normal and ramp production.

But price action was a result of major liquidation of leveraged positions, including option vol crush.

It's very clear the strait is "under new mgmt". Supply will look different too

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

“It’s madness. This whole situation is a mess,” said one major tanker owner with ships currently exiting the strait.
https://t.co/sQSqQrv98p

[David @DavidSHolz]

you gotta be confident enough to act and open enough to learn

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

An outcome of the proliferation of "product managers" in big tech. Each focused on some kpi checkboxes.

No one really asks the simple questions anymore:

"is this product making people feel better or more productive?"

"Does this make sense?"

Only a few, exceptional, co's do.

[carried_no_interest @carrynointerest]

WHO WORKS AT LINKEDIN? This company is a joke.

LinkedIn banned my account for automations (what a joke) and then continues to charge me for premium lmao.

If you're going to ban someone, cancel their subscription. I literally cannot login to cancel it, because again, I am banned.

WHO WORKS AT THIS A COMPANY.

[Harrison Kinsley @Sentdex]

You can just decide to do stuff

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

The sentiment and price action feels a lot like total capitulation.

Reminds me of private credit earlier this year. Total capitulation, yet market bottom even as things got more and more bearish.

Positioning just gets ahead of itself.

Oil fndmtls point to 75-120 oil

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

From what I can see, market has puked oil positions. Likely some forced liquidations. Group chats with capitulation, worries about divorce. Etc. people got over their skis paying for option premium.

Luckily I was sitting in '27 Brent and wti, but still down 6% since war. 21%ytd

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

@Big_Orrin It's been quite entertaining. He got all the price moves right, for all the wrong reasons (imo)

[Harrison Kinsley @Sentdex]

@TheAhmadOsman In my humble opinion, GLM 5.2 is the #1 most important moment. Finally a real ossai MIT license swing at a viable frontier model.

Its not of tangible use to most to run locally, but this is a major moment.

There is no moat.

The emperors have no clothes.

[Mark Hammond @MarkHam80780803]

“I have totally defeated you and also transferred $300 billion dollars into your bank account”

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

@Sentdex Thanks for sharing.

[Harrison Kinsley @Sentdex]

Zai was gracious enough to give me a key to test out GLM 5.2. I used it on a few simple tasks and quickly realized this model is on another level.

I committed to using GLM 5.2 solely for the weekend and yesterday on everything from simple data analysis, random queries, side projects, and real work, and I can honestly say this is the first open model that I could comfortably replace Opus 4.8/GPT 5.5 with. It’s THAT good. When I say everything, I mean everything. I never needed to fallback to GPT 5.5 or Opus 4.8. This really blew my mind.

I was unable to find any task where I knew GPT 5.5 or Opus 4.8 could solve, but GLM 5.2 could not, and I actually found a few cases where GLM 5.2 was better. I am not trying to overhype anything here. It's just my actual experience with this model. It was of course only 3ish days of usage, maybe cracks would form in time, but the perf is staggering imo.

I see it's an "inferior" model on the benchmarks even Zai has shared, but I am not so sure and I think this is the first time I've experienced that with an open model. I am not saying it's necessarily better, but I believe it's a replacement that you could run on-prem, which is crazy to me.

It was to the point where I was double triple quadruple checking that I wasn't accidentally running Opus or GPT. I ran thru both Hermes and my own custom coding agent harness with extremely great success.

I cannot believe this is only a 754B model that's also an open MIT licensed model. Do not sleep on this one, and definitely try it out.

Get it locally if you can!

Can I find a way to run it locally? That’s a different question, but I will be trying to get it done because this model is epic.

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

@policytensor @ProfessorPape What was the wager?

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

this can't be real.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: A source close to the IRGC says there is "growing satisfaction" inside the Revolutionary Guards over the deal, with IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi saying "first, we take the money" in reference to the $300 billion in reconstruction funds and $24 billion in frozen funds Iran is receiving, and then the IRGC takes over the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb after Hormuz, where it plans to "play exactly the same game."

The IRGC's internal assessment is that Iran preserved its ballistic missile program, full regional proxy network, complete control over Hormuz and ability to rebuild while extracting hundreds of billions of US dollars and recognition, with discussions already focused on "the day after the agreement, not the agreement itself."

[Walter Cavinaw @wcavinaw]

@Sentdex @AndrewCurran_ I used fable for a project for which I previously was using opus 4.8. Was marginally better. Required less specific prompting or pushback from me.

Unless I wasn't actually using fable, I don't think it's such a big loss. Some report that 5.5 was sometimes better.

[Harrison Kinsley @Sentdex]

@SearchDataEng This is why, imho, we're seeing everyone scramble to IPO and to nationalize. There is literally no moat.

Mythos isn't a moat, but they desperately NEED it to be one.