Instead of watching an hour of Netflix, watch this 1 hour lecture on Bloomberg Terminal. It will teach you more about trading markets than a 2 month internship at Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan.
Most people will go to bed tonight the same way they woke up this morning.
Spend 1 hour with this.
A MIT lecture on generational wealth that teaches you more about money, compounding, and building something that outlasts you than 20 years inside any hedge fund, investment bank, or financial institution ever could.
Wall Street teaches you how to make money for someone else.
This teaches you how to build something for yourself.
The people who watch this tonight will make one decision differently this week.
That one decision will compound for the next 20 years.
The people who skip it will keep taking financial advice from people who profit when they stay confused.
Completely free.
Bookmark this before you open Netflix ๐
โI canโt time stocks based on what theyโre going to do this quarter or next quarter, and I donโt know anyone else that can either. If Iโm right about where theyโre going to be in 5 or 10 years, weโll make a lot of money.โ
~ Warren Buffett
This is Marie Curie.
โข pioneer of radioactivity
โข first woman to win a Nobel Prize
โข first person to win Nobel Prizes in 2 fields
Sadly, her legacy was a heartbreaking tragedy. Here's How the Genius of Marie Curie Killed Her: (thread)๐งต
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 15.67x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.81x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.21%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.88%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~54% MORE in operating cash flow & ~23% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $101.20B
โขLong-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2023: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2023: $38.22B
โขCAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2023: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~54% MORE in OCF & ~23% LESS in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.65 (26% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (23% YoY)
2027E: $19.46 (16% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.46 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18x P/OCF: $350.28๐ต โฆ ~18.9% CAGR
17x P/OCF: $330.82๐ต โฆ ~16.5% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $311.36๐ต โฆ ~14.0% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $291.88๐ต โฆ ~11.4% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $272.44๐ต โฆ ~8.8% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple below what itโs trading for today (a multiple it hasnโt traded for since 2010) & a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates ๐
2025E: $50.28B (31% YoY)
2026E: $75.14B (49% YoY)
2027E: $109.56B (45% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $107.55B
๐Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $214๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
Before Apple, Steve Jobs was just a normal kid in California.
Until one day, he called the CEO of HP.
That one call gave Jobs the foundation that would later turn Apple into a $1 Trillion empire.
Hereโs the untold story of one of the boldest cold outreaches in history: ๐งต
Rich people know a secret.
While normal people grind for a promotion or start side hustles, the wealthy get rich quietly.
But I think everyone deserves to know the secret, so this is what my book โMain Street Millionaireโ is all about:
In 1973, Xerox was the worldโs most powerful tech giant, worth billions.
They controlled 85% of the copier market and invented the future of computing.
Then they made the most EXPENSIVE mistake in techโhanding Steve Jobs a $3 TRILLION empire.
Hereโs the full story: ๐งต