Wealth ME Plan

Wealth Stories, You need Planning.

[Howard Marks @hmarksofficial]

My latest memo discusses recent attempts to rein in long-dated government bond yields and why the only sustainable solution is responding to the underlying factors pushing interest rates up, even if politically uncomfortable.

You can read it here: https://t.co/RakxMnFvOY

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

I've been saying "bond traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking."

I guess I should have said, "bond traders can stop panicking when Scott Bessent starts panicking."

*TREASURY DEPT ANNOUNCES INCREASED SIZES OF LONG-END BUYBACKS

*LONG-TERM US YIELDS DROP ON TREASURY PLANS TO BOOST BUYBACKS

Three-day tick chart of 30-year yields.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

US 30-year yields have remained above 5% for 27 days this year, including the last 12 days in a row - the longest stretch since 2007. Real yields on 30-year notes are the highest since 2008, at nearly 3%. https://t.co/rCTSWBW4G8

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

EM ex TSM, Samsung, SK Hynix is +9% YTD... not bad

EM ex Korea, Taiwan is -6% GS

[Demis Hassabis @demishassabis]

https://t.co/PTeDiv1b6L

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

An important read.

#econony #ai #innovation #transformation @satyanadella

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

The data center buildout, alongside EVs and electrification, is driving demand for base metals like copper and aluminum.

Torsten at Apollo

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Stocks jump after President Trump says Iran deal is "all wrapped up"

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

This chart is more important

Token usage (blue bars) is exploding higher. It started in January when Agentic AI went mainstream with Claude Cowork and Moltbook (OpenClaw).

AI users are creating agents and code, leading to exponential growth in AI usage.

It's just starting.

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

Michael Hartnett, BofA | This Is The Biggest Bubble Since The Railroads

The current AI-driven market rally resembles one of the biggest speculative bubbles in history, comparable to the Nifty Fifty or dot-com era, but investors are unlikely to aggressively sell before two catalysts occur: a major OpenAI/SpaceX-style IPO cycle and a clear Fed policy tightening shock tied to rising CPI from tariffs and inflation.

- AI mega-caps now dominate market concentration, with the “AI bubble” larger than past railroad, Japan, and dot-com bubbles by some metrics.
- Bond yields are the main warning signal: the rise in long-term yields and global cost of capital seen as dangerous for risk assets, especially leveraged consumers, private equity, housing, and emerging markets.
- Several macro stress signals are flashing: weak Asian currencies (KRW, JPY, INR, IDR), widening high-yield spreads, EM outflows, and BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator hitting a contrarian “sell” level.
- Historically, speculative IPO waves (Alibaba, NTT, Visa, etc.) often marked medium-term market tops rather than immediate crashes.
- Current gains are very narrow (“wealth effect, not wage effect”), while equal-weight consumer stocks remain weak versus the S&P 500.
- Despite near-term bubble concerns, structurally bullish on emerging markets and commodities.
- Preferred post-bubble opportunities would be consumer stocks and smaller AI adopters/disruptors rather than dominant mega-cap AI platforms.
- Geopolitics, energy, AI competition with China, and inflation are increasingly interconnected themes shaping markets.

Zeitgeist quote: "Everyone is now convinced that equities are the best inflation hedge."

Feedback from recent London trip, main soundbites:
- "we’re long and paranoid,”
- “wants/needs to de-escalate Iran, and stocks pop, yields drop on deal,”
- “if UK gilts find love, everything finds love,”
- “European electorate shifting decisively right, Farage in UK, Le Pen in France, and you watch the AfD in Germany will win Saxony-Anhalt in September, their first state election,”
- “the fear in bonds is nowhere near as strong as greed in equities,”
- “Warsh will be rhetorically hawkish but practically dovish over the summer,”
- “US actions in Venezuela, Ukraine, Iran, Greenland, Cuba should be viewed through single strategic lens competition with China in AI, which can only be won by securing access to critical resources.”

( h/t Octavian Adrian Tanase)

[Wealth ME Plan @wealthmeplan]

ตลาดทุนปัจจุบันไม่ได้อยู่ในช่วงลดราคา โอกาสในการซื้อสินทรัพย์ราคาถูกจะเกิดขึ้นก็ต่อเมื่อนักลงทุนเกิดความตื่นตระหนก Panic ขายไม่มีเหตุผล..ซึ่งยังไม่เกิดขึ้นในปัจจุบัน
-Howard Marks-
On CNBC 20.04.2026

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Overseas investors are piling into US stocks:

Foreign investors now allocate a record 63% of their US financial assets to equities.

This percentage has more than DOUBLED since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

This also surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by ~10 percentage points.

By comparison, the long-term average allocation is ~40%.

As a result, foreign investors now own a record $21.3 trillion in US stocks and equity funds, surging +170% since 2020.

Foreign investors are doubling down on US markets.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Remember my four-phase framework for the economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War?
This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I and II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into a broader inflationary process.
#economy #markets @ft #middleeastwar

[Wealth ME Plan @wealthmeplan]

OpenAI พลาดเป้าหมายสําหรับผู้ใช้รายใหม่และรายได้ CFO กังวลว่าบริษัทจะไม่สามารถจ่ายค่าใช้จ่ายบริการ Cloud กับสร้าง Data Center ในอนาคตได้
- Wall Street Journal

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Something is happening in bond markets. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have fallen to the lowest this year, while credit spreads are widening to the highest this year.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve has officially PAUSED interest rate cuts for the first time since July 2025.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

1/2

The U.S. 10-year yield has broken out of its 2+ year old symmetrical triangle.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announces they will sell all US Treasuries by month-end, citing "rising credit risk" under President Trump.

The fund's CIO says US finances are no longer "sustainable," due to weak fiscal discipline, a softer Dollar, and Trump’s push for Greenland.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Spreads on corporate bonds globally have fallen to the lowest since 2007. @TheTerminal

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Powell had hired powerhouse DC firm Williams & Connolly as outside counsel before the DOJ subpoenas arrived—a sign he has been ready for whatever turns the White House pressure campaign could take.

Powell hasn't sought a fight over the Fed's institutional autonomy, but Sunday's extraordinary two-minute video statement suggests he won't shy away from one either. https://t.co/Vs89eVAzj4