matze | growthepie 🥧

Data-driven takes on the Ethereum Ecosystem | Co-Founder @growthepie_eth & @open_labels | Building dashboards, calisthenics, and walking our dog 🐶

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

Today marks 3 years since Ethereum’s Merge. One of the biggest technological achievements ever.
A network securing billions in assets switched from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake with 0 downtime.

The effects?
- Energy use ↓ 99.8%
- ETH issuance lower than the Gold mining rate

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@barnabemonnot this is something that my normie friends can also get behind 😎

very ambitious but 100% the right direction

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

Security is the most important property for Ethereum and ETH.

Great to see this very ambitious timeline. It won't be easy but it'll pay off 🔥

[Ethlabs @ethlabs_org]

pqai27: Our view on post-quantum and post-AI timelines.

We shared this on Ethereum Magicians as input into the Ethereum governance process.

https://t.co/DuPudG2uGL

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@krugermacro Congrats Alex, that's wonderful!!

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@binji_x ETH is also the most used app on Ethereum with over 300M direct ETH transactions in the last year alone

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@VicktoriaKlich @Bitpanda_global @Bitpanda @vsntoken @VisionWallet Stark so einen guten crypto content auf Deutsch zu sehen! Mehr davon 😎

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@sergeyshemyakov @sergeyshemyakov what's your view on the issues regarding Bitcoin's security budget?

https://t.co/ZZtW8k3CtR

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@bellnatalie101 @AltAnon95 @leolanza How do you think Bitcoin will pay it's miners once the block rewards are gone?

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

I want to sharpen my own thinking around why I think ETH has the potential to become the best SoV in the world.

Would love to hear arguments for/against any of my conclusions!

First things first - at it's current stage, I cannot confidently call ETH the best SoV, yet.

Why?
- AI and post-quantum threats are real
- Price action in the past 5 years was worse than other SoVs

BUT, imho it has the best chances to become the leading SoV.

The AI and PQ threat is being worked on full steam - the Ethereum community agrees that this has top priority.

Once Ethereum has successfully transitioned to post-quantum cryptography, I currently don't see any other asset with better properties.

This transition could quickly grow the assets adoption (esp. if cryptography of banks and tradfi start to fail).

When I compare ETH against other SoV contenders, I'm coming to the following conclusions:

ETH vs real estate
- reals estate isn't transportable (I cannot just bring it with me when I travel/move)
- real estate markets are more inefficient
- local factors might heavily influence the value appreciation/depreciation of my property
- upkeep costs are necessary (but generally lower than the generated rental income) and are dependent on availability of workers

ETH vs Fiat
- higher inflation (varies by country, but basically all have them)
- depending on the currency, there might be issues with accessibility
- one would need to pick a basket of currencies in order to diversify geopolitical risk properly
- dependent on decisions from central banks

ETH vs Gold
- gold is hard to verify, hard to break down into smaller amounts, and harder to trade in general
- you cannot easily transfer gold without a physical handover
- won't be useful to AI agents

ETH vs BTC
- ETH is programmable, which allows you to use your ETH natively on the underlying blockchain (Ethereum) whereas swapping/borrowing/lending BTC introduces additional trust assumptions (because Bitcoin chain is a ledger for token transfers and you'd have to go through centralized exchanges or other 3rd parties for more expressivity)
- Bitcoin is also working on PQ solutions (BIP-360 & BIP-361), but the migration path appears less defined compared to Ethereums more explicit and time-bound roadmap
- Bitcoin's fixed supply and declining PoW block rewards create an unresolved long-term security-budget question

Other pro ETH points
- it's programmable
- it's green
- it has the coolest brand (the logo is just amazing and goes with anything)
- it is productive (i.e. it can generate a native staking yield)

As mentioned, would love to discuss this publicly to sharpen my own thinking.

Also: never put all your eggs in the same basket. Even if one asset has the best "properties", it doesn't mean that the chance for success is 100% - there are always risks involved.

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@sergeyshemyakov Thank you Sergey! I agree, though I wonder whether this is just a temporary issue (next 2-5 years) or a longterm challenge?

At the same time, Bitcoins reluctance to change also bears risks, or what do you think?

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

Mhh seems like Grok got tired. Here is chatGPTs answer.

@bellnatalie101 I totally get your point, but as of right now, no one can know whether this will work out. The numbers we have so far aren't super optimistic and paying $50++ for a transaction is steep for normal users.

And especially with so much Blockspace available through other chains like Ethereum.

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@grok @bellnatalie101 @AltAnon95 @leolanza @grok thank you. What would a single transaction cost the user?

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@bellnatalie101 @AltAnon95 @leolanza @grok how high are Bitcoin's transaction fees per month? What's their share of current miners revenue? Will transaction fees alone be enough to pay miners? Do you think Bitcoin might ultimately have to tweak it's supply cap to keep the network secure?

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@AltAnon95 @leolanza Ah I see - thanks for the clarification!

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@bellnatalie101 @AltAnon95 @leolanza How do you think Bitcoin will pay it's miners once the block rewards are gone?

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

Not sure if I'd call $30-50M in chain fees per quarter zero?

And I'll stand by choice of words here.

If you stake your ETH, you gain more than the tiny inflation that is currently happening.

Also, what other asset doesn't have inflation?

- Gold is at roughly 2%
- Bitcoin is at 0.8%
- Fiat is somewhere between 2-6%

Why is it an issue if unstaked ETH has 0.86% inflation? I have a hard time understand this argument.

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@AltAnon95 @leolanza it's part of securing the network.

ETHs overall inflation is still negligible with 0.86%

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@wmougayar Yes, I'd argue real estate has more risks to loose it's value than gold (because of things like fire).

And at the same time I'd argue real estates SoV properties are more robust when it comes to AI/PQ threats than when it comes to digital assets like BTC and ETH.

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@wmougayar I'm not doubting that we will pull it off. I hold ETH.

But it wouldn't be very honest imho to act like the chance of quantum attacks is 0%.

The risk-reward ratio will obviously shift once quantum proof cryptography is in place.

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@leolanza Damn, very cool!

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

Had a great week at Devcon in Mumbai - but it also feels really really good to be back :)

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@leolanza Are these bear footprints??

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@leolanza Chopping wood + warm fire is such an amazing combo :)

[matze | growthepie 🥧 @web3_data]

@wmougayar Imo it's very related as long as it isn't solved. Gold doesn't have to fear quantum or new-math attacks. Ethereum at it's current stage does have more attack surface here.