![Andre_Dragosch's tweet photo. ๐ญ"๐ธ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐."
This is one of the key charts from our latest @bitwise Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others.
It can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin.
Data were provided courtesy of @river.
[Seriously - you should bookmark this ๐งต for later review].
๐จ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ "๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ต ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ"
The key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors ("individuals") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments.
Unlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin.
Even today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!
In contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher.
Take a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:
- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%
- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%
Compare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% โผ๏ธ
(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)
๐So, "we're still early" as they say in terms of institutional adoption.
Nonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak.
You will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:
๐๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฑ๐ผ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ.
1โฃ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ.
Stating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend.
The truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being "HODLed".
Only ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid.
#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive.
Many early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to "buy a house" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD.
In order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly.
In the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors.
At the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast).
2โฃ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ.
Probably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence "halving").
However, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation.
With increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished.
In 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already!
In the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true "macro asset".
This is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐ด๐ฌ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป'๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ด๐น๐ผ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. ๐คฏ
However, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely "dead".
It ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion.
๐ง๐;๐๐ฅ:
- The "Great Wealth Transfer" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors .
- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true "macro asset" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving.
Thanks for reading!
Hope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here.
Follow me ๐ @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights.
Stay humble and stack Sats,
Andrรฉ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4Vxy3mWoAAMesW.jpg)
![Andre_Dragosch's tweet photo. ๐ญ"๐ธ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐."
This is one of the key charts from our latest @bitwise Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others.
It can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin.
Data were provided courtesy of @river.
[Seriously - you should bookmark this ๐งต for later review].
๐จ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ "๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ต ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ"
The key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors ("individuals") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments.
Unlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin.
Even today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!
In contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher.
Take a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:
- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%
- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%
Compare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% โผ๏ธ
(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)
๐So, "we're still early" as they say in terms of institutional adoption.
Nonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak.
You will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:
๐๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฑ๐ผ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ.
1โฃ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ.
Stating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend.
The truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being "HODLed".
Only ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid.
#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive.
Many early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to "buy a house" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD.
In order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly.
In the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors.
At the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast).
2โฃ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ.
Probably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence "halving").
However, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation.
With increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished.
In 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already!
In the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true "macro asset".
This is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐ด๐ฌ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป'๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ด๐น๐ผ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. ๐คฏ
However, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely "dead".
It ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion.
๐ง๐;๐๐ฅ:
- The "Great Wealth Transfer" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors .
- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true "macro asset" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving.
Thanks for reading!
Hope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here.
Follow me ๐ @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights.
Stay humble and stack Sats,
Andrรฉ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4Vu6wvXcAAYI4F.jpg)
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Digital asset investment products saw a fourth consecutive week of outflows totalling $173m, bringing the cumulative four-week run of outflows to $3.74bn.
Source: https://t.co/XlTItfi7Ua
Crypto Market Under Stress Today as Institutional Outflows Continue
Read more:
https://t.co/ieP3V1hiDY
#bitcoin #crypto #cryptonews
The integration suggests potential future routing pathways.
If FIAS Arches execute trades:
โข They need liquidity
โข They need routing
โข They need settlement
DevvExchange is designed as a routing + settlement infrastructure layer.
Speculation: If FIAS Arches plug into DevvExchange routing rails, we could see AI executed institutional flows settled atomically.
That would not be retail.
That would be structural.
Bitcoin Drops After CPI Report Spark Sell-Off
Top Crypto News Today (Feb 13, 2026)
https://t.co/3bbSQQ6nYV
Why Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies Are Crashing.
More details below๐
https://t.co/5w1W7a2v5U
Bitcoin Slide as Gold & Silver Surge, While Davos Talks Keep Crypto in the Global Spotlight!
Even as Bitcoin struggles below $90k, crypto is no longer just a speculative assets; it is now part of global financial and policy conversations.
https://t.co/jGfGjIQOgh
Here's the latest crypto market news today 01-22-2026 covering prices, regulayory, developments, institutional moves and key market drivers.
https://t.co/cnNQ9EeV3Z
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Sign up for FREE Explorer Ticket๐ https://t.co/cPVNuHyGLv
Weโre proud to announce that @web3alliancePH is an Official Community Partner of @YieldGuild for the @YGGPlaySummit 2025! ๐ฎ
๐
November 19โ20, 2025
๐ SMX Aura, BGC
๐ Get your tickets at https://t.co/WGvpBJEPpe
๐ธ Use code: " W3APH20 " for 20% off!
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This Halloween, the only thing to fear is not having enough Bitcoin.
The percentage of retail investors in Bitcoin is still approximately 66%, which indicates that the vast majority of Bitcoins remain under the control of non-institutional investors.
https://t.co/xL2dkJxDtA
๐ญ"๐ธ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐."
This is one of the key charts from our latest @bitwise Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others.
It can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin.
Data were provided courtesy of @river.
[Seriously - you should bookmark this ๐งต for later review].
๐จ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ "๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ต ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ"
The key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors ("individuals") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments.
Unlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin.
Even today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!
In contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher.
Take a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:
- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%
- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%
Compare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% โผ๏ธ
(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)
๐So, "we're still early" as they say in terms of institutional adoption.
Nonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak.
You will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:
๐๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฑ๐ผ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ.
1โฃ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ.
Stating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend.
The truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being "HODLed".
Only ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid.
#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive.
Many early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to "buy a house" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD.
In order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly.
In the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors.
At the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast).
2โฃ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ.
Probably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence "halving").
However, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation.
With increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished.
In 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already!
In the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true "macro asset".
This is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐ด๐ฌ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป'๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ด๐น๐ผ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. ๐คฏ
However, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely "dead".
It ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion.
๐ง๐;๐๐ฅ:
- The "Great Wealth Transfer" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors .
- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true "macro asset" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving.
Thanks for reading!
Hope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here.
Follow me ๐ @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights.
Stay humble and stack Sats,
Andrรฉ
![Andre_Dragosch's tweet photo. ๐ญ"๐ธ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐ฃ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐."
This is one of the key charts from our latest @bitwise Quarterly Market Review prepared by my US research colleagues @RasterlyRock, @Matt_Hougan, @singularity7x and others.
It can explain the ongoing adoption trend and even what's special about the current cycle of #bitcoin.
Data were provided courtesy of @river.
[Seriously - you should bookmark this ๐งต for later review].
๐จ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฒ "๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ต ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ"
The key to understand is that #bitcoins are being distributed from early retail investors ("individuals") to institutional investors like funds/ETPs, businesses, and also governments.
Unlike other traditional asset classes in history, #bitcoin adoption started with retail investors such as cypherpunks and early adopters first before institutional investors like family offices, fund managers, ETFs et al. started to do their first investment into #bitcoin.
Even today, the percentage of retail* investors is still ~66%. That means the vast majority of bitcoins is still controlled by non-institutional investors (see tile chart above)!
In contrast, the very latest data from the 13F filings in the US reveal that the percentage allocations by institutional investors in traditional asset classes is significantly higher.
Take a look at the % of major tradfi ETF institutional holdings:
- iShares 20yr+ Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) - 79%
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) - 58%
- SPDR Gold shares ETF ($GLD) - 36%
Compare this to the latest insights from the BofA's global fund manager survey which revealed that the average allocation into cryptoassets (which includes #bitcoin but also other cryptoassets) is only 0.4% โผ๏ธ
(BTW - IBIT's institutional holdings are just at 26%...)
๐So, "we're still early" as they say in terms of institutional adoption.
Nonetheless, there is a significant wealth transfer from retail to institutional investors happening as we speak.
You will be surprised how many implications you can derive from this wealth transfer from early retail HODLers to institutional investors:
๐๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ฑ๐ผ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป: ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ.
1โฃ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ.
Stating the obvious first, this transfer doesn't happen overnight. It is a longer-term trend.
The truth is: The majority of bitcoins are illiquid and are being "HODLed".
Only ~14.5% of $BTC supply is held on exchanges like Coinbase or Binance and is relatively liquid while the rest is being stored off exchange and remains illiquid.
#Bitcoin wealth won't be transferred without any economic incentive.
Many early adopters have a psychological (e.g. 1M USD per $BTC) or economic threshold (e.g. in order to "buy a house" etc) when to sell their precious bitcoins which is significantly higher than the current market price of around 115k USD.
In order to attract these illiquid coins to the market (i.e. exchanges), the price of #bitcoin will need to rise significantly.
In the process, #bitcoin adoption will broaden and more people will get exposure to the asset class as ETF holdings are held in a fiduciary matter for millions of individual investors. Treasury company shares are also being held by 100,000s of different investors.
At the time of writing, institutional investors (ETPs & treasury companies) hold around 12.5% of the BTC supply - and counting (fast).
2โฃ๐๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ.
Probably most analysts would agree that #Bitcoin's earlier bull & bear cycles used to be determined by the Halvings which happened every 210,000 blocks (~4 years) and halved the amount of bitcoin's produced by -50% (hence "halving").
However, the influence of these Halvings has been declining gradually over time with each successive halving, both in absolute terms and relative to the supply already in circulation.
With increasing institutional adoption and dominance of demand the effect of the Halving has clearly diminished.
In 2025, the demand from institutions has outsized the supply deficit induced by the halving by a factor of around ~7 x times already!
In the process, the relative importance of the traditional macro cycle has increased - #Bitcoin has become a true "macro asset".
This is also what our own quantitative analyses suggest - ๐ ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐ด๐ฌ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ถ๐๐ฐ๐ผ๐ถ๐ป'๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐น๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐ด๐น๐ผ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐น ๐ด๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐๐ต ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐, ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ผ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐. Less than 5% by coin-specific factors. ๐คฏ
However, the dominance of macro factors also implies that bitcoin's bull & bear cycles will fluctuate with macro/business cycles going forward and that the 4-year cycle induced by the Halvings is most likely "dead".
It ultimately means that bitcoins will be accumulated and distributed dependent on the dominant macro regime (expansion/boom vs contraction/recession) which will create short-term up- and downswings in price in a risk-on/risk-off fashion.
๐ง๐;๐๐ฅ:
- The "Great Wealth Transfer" ultimately means that prices will need to go higher - much higher - in order to incentivise further adoption of bitcoins and the transfer from early retail investors to institutional investors .
- Further adoption by institutional investors means that bitcoin has become a true "macro asset" implying that future bull & bear cycles will increasingly be determined by macro/business cycles and not so much by the Halving.
Thanks for reading!
Hope you enjoyed this thread! Appreciated you being here.
Follow me ๐ @Andre_Dragosch for more institutional-grade #bitcoin & macro insights.
Stay humble and stack Sats,
Andrรฉ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G4VyIxqXgAAHvfv.jpg)
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