Nett

Building bots for prediction markets

[Nett @web3tool]

@realnerrd @DeBankDeFi @Rabby_io If anyone knows the pain of indexing EVM data at scale, it’s the DeBank team

[Nett @web3tool]

@appledog_xyz @Polymarket @mustafap0ly Ghost orders still around? Honestly thought that got fixed long ago

[Polymarket Developers @PolymarketDevs]

Deposit Wallets are live. New signups now get a deposit wallet at the door, and ghost fills should taper off through the day as the rollout spreads.

We're monitoring performance closely.

[Nett @web3tool]

@DegenApe99 @Polymarket Stopped all bots and watching the clock for today's ghost fill fix.

[Variance Lover @variance_lover]

I’ve been one of the biggest market makers on Polymarket for a long time. At peak I was doing $10M+ daily volume and paying thousands in fees every single day.

The current state is the worst the platform has ever felt.

Ghost fills still everywhere. Markets constantly breaking. Payouts randomly missing. Exploits going on for months while the team says “it’s fixed”. You spend more time defending against bugs than actually trading.

Meanwhile, communication is a joke.

They say “we’re listening” → ignore emails, ignore DMs.
They say “we’ll work with top users” → instead it’s random private Telegram groups with whoever shouts the loudest.
They say “issue fixed” → it clearly isn’t.

At some point you stop believing anything they say.

The fee situation is another one. If you’re generating serious volume and paying serious fees (thousands a day), most exchanges shower you with attention and perks. I'm not asking for that but would be nice to at least be acknowledged that you exist and have basic communication, especially after they've announced publicly multiple times that they will start doing this.

Instead we got a week-long hype campaign for a “big update” that turned out to be… a hidden fee increase.

How dumb do you think your users are?

And then stuff like April 5th, missed referral/rebate payments, no announcement, no explanation, nothing. Just silence. That’s not a bug, that’s trust damage.

The bigger issue is it feels like nobody on the team has actual trading experience. The design decisions show it. Every update introduces new edge cases, new exploits, new ways to break the order book.

People have made many millions exploiting this stuff. Many of these accounts are obvious, trackable, preventable. The community has been pointing it out for months.

Ignored.

Only now that the markets are borderline unusable does it seem like there’s urgency. Right now the platform is honestly close to untradeable:
– ghost fills
– manipulation
– unreliable payouts
– constant bugs
– zero transparency

And surprise, volume is dropping.

Meanwhile Kalshi is catching up fast (have basically overtaken in volume in almost every category except for politics) and Hyperliquid is entering with a team that actually understands trading systems.

I want Polymarket to succeed.

And yes, maybe the upcoming ghost fill fix helps. But if this pattern continues, terrible communication, fake timelines, ignoring core users, then this won’t be a place serious traders stick around.

You can’t build a market while eroding the trust of the people who provide the liquidity, especially not as a many multi billion dollar company! I have spoken to many large polymarket whales (of which a considerable amount have already given up on the platform) and they all share this sentiment.

@Polymarket @mustafap0ly @SuhailKakar @_kanarazu_

[Nett @web3tool]

@0xMovez Curious which part landed as Jane Street‑tier for you? Watched it, felt like a standard Claude Code intro.

[Nett @web3tool]

@graviahq @Polymarket End of a 5m BTC round, price slamming 0→1→0 in the last seconds. All ghost fills.

[Nett @web3tool]

@Eltonma @penguin_pmkt @Domahhhh May 2nd closed at 8.5% revert rate — even worse than I posted. 1 in every 12 trades.

[Nett @web3tool]

@Domahhhh @Eltonma 7% of all Polymarket transactions failed today. The ghost-fill exploit is being drained as hard as possible ahead of Monday's promised fix.

[Nett @web3tool]

The ghost-fill exploit on Polymarket has hit catastrophic levels: 6.6% of all trades reverted on May 1st, 7.0% on May 2nd.

Attackers are draining the bug at full throttle ahead of the patch Polymarket promised for Monday. Everyone trading is paying for it right now, no matter what side of the book they're on.

Failed-tx count should be a multiplier on the future $POLY airdrop.

Hoping the fix lands cleanly. @PolymarketDevs 🙏

[Nett @web3tool]

@Eltonma 6.6% of trades failed on May 1st. A few weeks ago almost none did. Looks like attackers are squeezing the exploit before Monday's fix closes it.

[Nett @web3tool]

@devjoshstevens Proposal: failed tx count = $POLY airdrop tier. Turn our suffering into allocation 🫡

[Nett @web3tool]

@bryantheden @mustafap0ly That's a ghost fill. Your order matched off-chain but the settlement reverted on-chain. The trade never actually happened. It's an active exploit and lot of people are affected right now, especially on 5-min crypto markets. Polymarket said a fix is coming as a fast-follow to V2.

[Nett @web3tool]

@GomuCrypto_eth Doesn't really matter — I run taker-only bots on 5m crypto and had to stop all of them this week.

[Nett @web3tool]

@trylimitless 0x469894E7c0F9be018cB50b22735ad1e06554fff4

[Nett @web3tool]

@dankerwim @fantasy_top_ Not 100% sure, but I think the main issue could be Twitter API limits. When I was building my own system to analyze heroes’ activity, I realized how complex (and expensive) it is to constantly scan Twitter. After Musk bought Twitter, the API became extremely restricted.

[Nett @web3tool]

gm
Back to @fantasy_top_ after a deep dive into prediction markets.
Fixed the "unknown" method bug on fanscan(dot)live and refreshed all affected cards.
Next: recalibrating the Dune dashboard for accurate tracking.

[Nett @web3tool]

@polylayerx How do I get an access code?

[Fantardio @Fantardio]

"As long as there is delusion there is hope"

The elephant in the room for @fantasy_top_ is the market value of cards free-falling since April this year. A few things have been tried (seasons, new league, arena) but none of them have been the solution we are looking and hoping for.

I want to discuss three topics that I feel are the biggest contributors to the free-fall of card prices and what the team can do to support their community who is losing money at an unprecedented pace which is bleeding into the sentiment on the timeline.

Let me preface this by saying:
I love the game. I love @travisbickle0x . I love @710_eth, I love @0xKipit and @0xMikado , the builders, the mods, the community. This is not a post to "dunk" on the project. This is my perspective on a solvable problem and an attempt to help.

Fantasy tournaments have three reward mechanisms:

1. FAN points
2. Fragments
3. ETH

Let's dive in to why the market is losing steam.

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FAN POINTS
--------------

A lot of Fantardio's who lost money recently on their purchases or holdings, have come to the obvious conclusion that in order to make it all back, they want to cash out by dumping $FAN allocation on TGE. This is obviously not a sustainable solution, but that doesn't mean we should not explore TGE at all.

The Fantasy TGE has been the most anticipated airdrop of Summer 2024. As we are currently in Winter 2025, it is fair to say that it is now one of the least anticipated airdrops, and many doubt it will even happen (mental damage caused by Stars and ELO).

This doubt in $FAN plus the fact that EVERY WEEK the number of FAN points in circulation increases, has lowered the expected value of FAN points. People were willing to not make much money on a weekly basis as they were still racking up FAN point which would eventually pay itself back at a TGE, but it's now been almost two years of inflation of points, causing billions of points to have been amassed.

With FAN points not factoring in on ROI anymore, FAN as a reason to re-invest your winnings into new cards or to keep good card pulls has diminished. But this is not a lost cause. My proposed solution to this is a three-stepped approach:

1. Snapshot current FAN holdings and reset the count
2. Announce a Season 2
3. Design allocation mechanics for a potential TGE where if you only play Season 1, you get a lower multiplier. The fewer tournaments played, the lower the multiplier. Play both seasons, higher multiplier

This not only DIRECTLY confirms that a TGE will still happen and putting some hope/belief back into the system, it also entices people who cashed out along the way to come back for round 2.

We do need a set time limit for Season 2 (3 -5 months imo but open for debate), and a fully designed TGE plan, but we still have half a year to figure this out.

You can even soft-lock part of the allocation (frame it as BONUS TOKENS) behind having to play more tournaments to unlock the tokens, ensuring not a complete standstill after TGE.

This puts value back in to the FAN points we earn every week, solving part one of the rewards.

--------------
FRAGMENTS
--------------

It is no secret that with current market conditions, fragments just are not worth playing for. The current floor price of cards is 0.0013 ETH, or $5. You can buy 50 fragments for one floor card, which gives us a value of $0.10 per fragment (which is an optimistic price, since burning floors for fragments is about ~75% EV, so $0.075 per fragment is likely more realistic).

Getting first place in Elite will give you 2500 fragments, which you can expect to get $188 for if you spend it on Jade Packs.

Winning elite is not a good benchmark to look at fragments, as the money you have to spend to win ($75,000-100,000 at least) means you will never make anything significant back through fragments.

Bronze is a better example:

Placing in the top 10% of bronze will get you roughly top 1000 - this will give you 50 fragments, or $5.

There are no ETH rewards here, and nobody really looks at the $FAN anymore. So this is just not enticing at all, considering you need to beat 90% of all decks to win $5, so you must have competitive cards.

Currently, Fragments are being used as a "free" rewards mechanism for devs. They can slap a fragment reward on anything at zero cost of their own.

The burn leaderboard does nothing. Nobody is burning more cards due to the burn leaderboard, but we are refunding 100,000 fragments. We are giving Fragments to Arena players, Arena heroes, grants, and while I am thankful for it and recieve fragments in these ways myself, it is clear to everyone involved that too many fragments are being printed right now.

Solution - Lower fragment output by ~15%, compensate with ETH

This is a tough pill to swallow and easy to shout from the sidelines, but we need to turn this boat around somehow. Remove reverse for all I care, or at least get more creative with it.

-----------------
ETH REWARDS
-----------------

The start of the market downturn was the huge 40% rewards nerf we saw in April of 2025, combined with a bye week. Luckily for us the bye week didn't last more than, well, a week. But the rewards nerf in ETH is still very tangible.

Less ETH rewards directly means less funds available for people to re-invest into the game. I get the need for a sustainable runway, but once FAN has monetary value, we are less reliant on those ETH reserves and it is alright to blast through them at a slightly more rapid pace than we are currently doing if it brings back players, excitement, and hope to the game.

Nobody knows how long this "bull" market will last. All I know is, with FAN points and Fragments already at a low point, if ETH would suddenly be <$2500 again, there is a serious lack of incentive to play core at all. And that is coming from someone who dedicated his entire online persona to this game.

Solution: increase ETH rewards by 15% to compensate for the Fragment reduction

-----------------
OTHER ISSUES
-----------------

One of the things that I miss a lot in Fantasy is sneak-peeks, updates on what is being worked on, and what is in the pipeline.

There has always been an inherent lack of transparency and communication that makes it very hard to look forward to what's coming next. We simply don't know what you are building on.

Communicate MORE. I want updates on bugfixes, changelogs, get people talking about the game again on the timeline!

Secondly, there is inherent sluggishness in development. I feel like since Clout was introduced and now Arena is a priority too, the updates that Core is getting are few and far between. Core needs some love, and the 6-week season means that the game is stagnant for 6-weeks at a time.

Experiment more! More star changes, experiment with reverse (rotating gamemodes like closest to 2500 points wins). There is so much to explore that I feel could be a smash hit.

-------
HOPE
-------

I would not be speakin honestly if I didn't shine some light on the reason why we are all still here.

The game fuckin slaps.

Predicting virality and strategizing around the content you read every single day regardless, is insanely fun and addictive.

I love Arena, I love that anyone can be a hero and I love seeing my friends in my draft picks. That just puts a smile on my face every single time.

The partnerships are PHENOMENAL. We have partnered with @monad (thanks @intern & @sherlock_hodles), with MANY NFT projects along the way, and now @ParallelAiRev got us the @ParallelTCG partnership. This avenue is definitely one of the bright lights of Fantasy, as every hero has their own benefit and contacts within the industry, which means the team has those contacts indirectly as well. A lot of potential here.

The community surrounding the game is insanely talented. We have @Khallid4397 and @thecarpenter creating content weekly, we have @0xthemolt, @boredsharky, @web3tool and MANY MANY other talented devs create third party websites and tools to use (findable on https://t.co/dG9BIsA2Qj fantasy hub!)

Fantasy literally made my Web3 presence in what it is today. I will be eternally thankful for this experience no matter where we end up.

If Fantasy has a million Fantardio's, I am one of them.
If Fantasy has a thousand Fantardio's, I am one of them.
If Fantasy has one Fantardio, I am him.
If Fantasy has no Fantardio's left, I am dead.

/fantardio