Oddy

You can trade THIS?

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

https://t.co/c684WSgLbG

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

🚨 $170K whale bet on NO Fed hike — now down $74K.

The position was entered around 37¢; No Change is now near 21¢. If right, the payout is about $458K.

Insider read or reckless contrarian bet? At 21¢, are you following the whale or fading it?
#predictionmarkets

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

AI leaders are split on whether the race should slow down. 🤖

Sam Altman @sama is warning about losing control, while Trump and Zuckerberg are pushing to move faster.

Will a major AI lab pause model training for safety before 2028?
#openai #anthropic #ai

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are set to meet tomorrow to sign a joint declaration calling for all three nations to gain independence from the UK.

If it happens, it would be one of the strongest coordinated challenges to the Union in modern British politics.

Will at least one of Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland hold an official independence referendum before the end of 2028?
#Scotland #Wales #PredictionMarkets

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@Apple's foldable era has officially started. 📱

The iPhone Duo is finally here — and at $1,999, Apple is testing just how much people are willing to pay for something genuinely new.

Will the iPhone Duo sell out within 24 hours of pre-orders opening?
#iPhone #Duo #predictionmarkets

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

https://t.co/tQB9DpygcU

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@Apple finally folded. 📱

The new iPhone Duo is here — Apple’s first foldable iPhone, starting at $1,999.

Will the iPhone Duo outsell the iPhone 18 Pro in its first 30 days?

#iPhone #predictionmarkets

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@Mrwhosetheboss I need to see the thickness when it’s folded before I get excited 😂 https://t.co/QuaIto45gW

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@Apple finally folded. 📱

The new iPhone Duo is here — Apple’s first foldable iPhone, starting at $1,999.

Will the iPhone Duo outsell the iPhone 18 Pro in its first 30 days?

#iPhone #predictionmarkets

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@geoffkeighley If Apple actually nailed the hinge on version 1, this could be huge. https://t.co/QuaIto45gW

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@Apple finally folded. 📱

The new iPhone Duo is here — Apple’s first foldable iPhone, starting at $1,999.

Will the iPhone Duo outsell the iPhone 18 Pro in its first 30 days?

#iPhone #predictionmarkets

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@MKBHD Samsung watching Apple discover folding phones in 2026: ����️👄👁️ https://t.co/QuaIto45gW

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@Apple finally folded. 📱

The new iPhone Duo is here — Apple’s first foldable iPhone, starting at $1,999.

Will the iPhone Duo outsell the iPhone 18 Pro in its first 30 days?

#iPhone #predictionmarkets

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

Benchmark markets can be more tradable than the AI headlines everyone is chasing.

Take “Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?” — about $71K has already traded.
Right now, 60%+ is basically a coin flip at 50%, while 65%+ sits at 24% and 70%+ at 11%.

That gives you something concrete to trade: every new model, benchmark update, or reasoning jump can move a specific threshold.

Would you rather guess when GPT-6 launches—or trade whether OpenAI can actually clear 60%, 65%, or 70%?
Sometimes the better AI trade is the measurable one.
#PredictionMarket
https://t.co/7S0GLFBawn

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

Big AI headlines aren’t the only place to trade — even a question as specific as “Will OpenAI officially declare AGI before 2027?” has a real market behind it.

Right now, YES is around 29%, with roughly $131K traded.

What makes this interesting is that the trade isn’t simply “Will AI become AGI?” It’s whether OpenAI actually publicly says it has achieved AGI before the deadline.

That wording matters.

Would you trade the technology itself, or the probability that OpenAI is willing to make the announcement?

Sometimes the edge is hiding in the resolution criteria, not the headline.
#PredictionMarket
https://t.co/3gNAm0kgFV

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

Small AI markets can be just as tradable as the big ones — sometimes even more.

Everyone watches best AI model or when OpenAI drops its next model.

But markets like “AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?” get far less attention.

Fewer traders can mean less competition and more room for an edge.

If you actually understand a niche AI topic, why fight the crowd in the biggest market?

Sometimes the better trade is the smaller one everyone ignored.
#openai #gpt #ai
https://t.co/TjIzCdMy8M

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

Only $329 traded on this Apple keynote word market, yet apparently someone still made money from it?

Tiny opportunities can be the most fun. 👀
#Polymarket #Apple #JohnTernus #predictionmarket

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

https://t.co/ZNIfsq6RCw

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on week 1?

$754K traded just to guess a GTA VI video’s first-week views? The internet has financialized hype. 👀 #Polymarket #GTA6 #YouTube

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@Sevenup27 https://t.co/ySsbbZR8nO

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” total domestic gross by September 30?
I’m genuinely surprised people are making money trading markets this specific 😭

I just found a wallet that seems unusually good at movie box-office markets—timing ranges, shifting probabilities, the whole thing.
Might be worth digging into its past trades.
#predictionmarket

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@cryptorover https://t.co/ySsbbZR8nO

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

“Spider-Man: Brand New Day” total domestic gross by September 30?
I’m genuinely surprised people are making money trading markets this specific 😭

I just found a wallet that seems unusually good at movie box-office markets—timing ranges, shifting probabilities, the whole thing.
Might be worth digging into its past trades.
#predictionmarket

[Oddy @weirdoddieo]

@reinhardNASCAR If Darlington is Reddick’s best projected track, the timing couldn’t be better. This feels like the race that decides whether he can close the gap.