DO NOT FALL FOR IT
Today SpaceX goes public at $1.75 trillion
In the last 20 years the overwhelming majority of hyped IPO's were a DISASTER in first year
SpaceX is 10x hyped and 20x a big IPO's valuation
Meta: −30% in the first year
Uber: −25% in the first year
Rivian: −60% in the first year
Coinbase: −55% in the 1st year (since day 1)
It is not designed for retail to win
You buy at the top, early investors are up 100x to 1000x
Bankers will win, investors will win, early employees will win
AT YOUR EXPENSE
SpaceX is a great company, and you'll easily buy it at a discount in the next 365 days
Just be patient
All Fear is gone
Goldman Sachs panic index closed Friday at a 1 handle (2y lows): It includes 2y pct rank of VVIX, VIX, skew, & ATM vol. It will open even lower this morning.
Prepare for June to throw market participants volatility to shake things up.
Have a lovely Monday😊
Breaking: Michael Burry said "it feels like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble"
The last time the Knicks were in the NBA Finals, the Nasdaq peaked 9 months later and fell 78%
History is rhyming hard right now:
1999:
• Knicks are in the NBA Finals
• Nasdaq up 84% that year
• Tech was 33% of the S&P 500
• CAPE ratio hit 40x
• Margin debt at record highs
• Hedge funds had 31% of portfolios in tech
2026:
• Knicks are in the NBA Finals
• Nasdaq up 31% in 12 months
• Tech is 32% of the S&P 500
• CAPE ratio at 40x
• Margin debt at record highs
• Hedge funds have 33% of portfolios in Big Tech
🚨 MICHAEL BURRY WARNS THREE UPCOMING IPOs COULD COMPLETELY CRASH THE STOCK MARKET.
Michael Burry reported that the upcoming public listings for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are going to pull more capital out of the market than the entire dot-com wave of 2000.
Adjusted for inflation, just these three companies will raise more money than the hundreds of tech firms that flooded the market at the peak of the 2000 bubble.
The historical data from 2000 shows exactly why this is dangerous for stocks.
That year, the market saw 446 IPOs raise a record $108.15 billion. The Nasdaq peaked on March 10, 2000, at the exact moment this massive supply of new shares hit the market, right before crashing 80%.
The crash happened because of a simple liquidity drain.
When giant companies go public, big institutional funds need cash to buy the new shares.
To get that cash, they have to sell their existing stock positions. This creates immediate selling pressure on the most expensive tech stocks.
Today, the setup is identical but much more concentrated. Instead of hundreds of small startups spreading out the drain, just three mega companies are absorbing the market's capital.
This directly impacts current market leaders.
Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion cloud backlog tied to OpenAI, and Oracle has 54% of its pipeline dependent on it.
The same big funds that need to buy the new IPOs are the ones currently holding these tech giants.
In the first quarter of 2000, the average IPO nearly doubled on its first trading day because cash was easily available.
By the fourth quarter, capital markets dried up.
Gross IPO proceeds collapsed 63% in a single quarter, and average first-day gains dropped to just 14% as companies rushed into layoffs and bankruptcies.
When an unprecedented amount of money is pulled out of existing stocks to fund a single massive IPO wave, the broader market historically runs out of the liquidity needed to sustain its peak.