ハーネス

趣味、特技：日経平均株価。日々、ビットコインと日経平均を研究して中〜長期で値動きを予想しています。

[ハーネス @wellith6]

2025の日経工程表が初めて外れた、これはズレたと考えると、ダウのフラクタルも考慮して米指数は1下旬に調整、3月初旬に天井と見てる。それに合わせて図の2026のレンジを調整。もうちょい短いかもだけど。
左が225CFD、右がドル建て225。暗号も持つなら3月までかもね

[ハーネス @wellith6]

ほうほう

[东东弗斯 (hype/acc)👺 @dongdongRobin]

野村 @Nomura 这张图够炸眼

5 家 hyperscaler ( $AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $META $ORCL ) 未来 12 个月自由现金流预测 (FCF)，从 2024 年的～$330B 高位，断崖砸向现在接近 0 的水平

而同期 S&P 500 冲上历史新高
两条线过去 12 年第一次出现极端背离

[ハーネス @wellith6]

ちょっとこれ、予想と天井を大幅修正しないといけないなぁ。
個別の方ってどうなんだろう、米の煽り食うのかな？まったくわからん

[ハーネス @wellith6]

これ見てると、まだまだかなって思う。ただ7月上旬は気をつけたいけど
https://t.co/HEcCdoO8Mi

[ハーネス @wellith6]

@CELSIA_ai ほんとそれです。一言で終わると、会話にならないだけじゃなく、その人の発信への姿勢まで見えますよね。
なるほどと思ったのが、SNSは人の時間の奪い合いなので滞在時間のこと。画像や動画を添えるのもやっぱり効果的なんだなと感じます。読むだけで終わらず、止まって見てもらえる要素も大事すねぇ。

[ハーネス @wellith6]

@CELSIA_ai めちゃくちゃ分かります！
X運用マスターとかの人でリプが大事とはよく言ってるのですが、実際にリプしに行っても一言だけ返ってくることも多いんですよね。
それだと会話にならないし、いや意味わかってないでしょリプの重要性のみたいな。
リプは数より、ちゃんと続く形にするのが大事だと思います。

[ハーネス @wellith6]

めっちゃいいじゃんこれ。港区も同様の取り組みをしているけど、各行政に広がるといいな。でも30泊だとけっこうしそうだけど、、助成出ればいいね
https://t.co/XkzJWyzGFp

[ハーネス @wellith6]

え、数日でこんな上がったの？すご、、、

[ハーネス @wellith6]

AIバブル予測。日経平均は次に8万円を目指すのか？ #日経平均 #バブル https://t.co/gNXJMqZqOq

[ハーネス @wellith6]

絶対こうなると思う。しかもかなり長い間。

[Xremlin @xGremlin]

DO NOT FALL FOR IT

Today SpaceX goes public at $1.75 trillion

In the last 20 years the overwhelming majority of hyped IPO's were a DISASTER in first year

SpaceX is 10x hyped and 20x a big IPO's valuation

Meta: −30% in the first year
Uber: −25% in the first year
Rivian: −60% in the first year
Coinbase: −55% in the 1st year (since day 1)

It is not designed for retail to win

You buy at the top, early investors are up 100x to 1000x

Bankers will win, investors will win, early employees will win

AT YOUR EXPENSE

SpaceX is a great company, and you'll easily buy it at a discount in the next 365 days

Just be patient

[ハーネス @wellith6]

サーキットブレーカー発動！

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market has been halted after falling -8.4% at the open.

[ハーネス @wellith6]

フォロワーの多い、信ぴょう性が高いと言われる人たちが一斉にビットコインを買い始めて、マイクロストラテジーやイーサ創業者が売却。
どっちかわからないけど、タイミングとしてははとても良く見える。さてどっちに転ぶかな？

[ハーネス @wellith6]

S&Pはまだまだ上がり続けと思う。S&P買ってても良かったかな、ちょっとは、、

[ハーネス @wellith6]

VIXも低いしね。記憶しあみても最後の上昇はこれからという感じ

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

All Fear is gone

Goldman Sachs panic index closed Friday at a 1 handle (2y lows): It includes 2y pct rank of VVIX, VIX, skew, & ATM vol. It will open even lower this morning.

Prepare for June to throw market participants volatility to shake things up.

Have a lovely Monday😊

[ハーネス @wellith6]

海外勢がよく描いてるこれ、ちょっと違うと思うんだよね。

[ハーネス @wellith6]

あと一万ぐらいは225上がりそうだなと思い、iDeCoを225に全集中しといたらちょい上がってた

[ハーネス @wellith6]

225、77000円辺りでどうかな

[Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ @burrytracker]

Breaking: Michael Burry said "it feels like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble"

The last time the Knicks were in the NBA Finals, the Nasdaq peaked 9 months later and fell 78%

History is rhyming hard right now:

1999:
• Knicks are in the NBA Finals
• Nasdaq up 84% that year
• Tech was 33% of the S&P 500
• CAPE ratio hit 40x
• Margin debt at record highs
• Hedge funds had 31% of portfolios in tech

2026:
• Knicks are in the NBA Finals
• Nasdaq up 31% in 12 months
• Tech is 32% of the S&P 500
• CAPE ratio at 40x
• Margin debt at record highs
• Hedge funds have 33% of portfolios in Big Tech

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 MICHAEL BURRY WARNS THREE UPCOMING IPOs COULD COMPLETELY CRASH THE STOCK MARKET.

Michael Burry reported that the upcoming public listings for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are going to pull more capital out of the market than the entire dot-com wave of 2000.

Adjusted for inflation, just these three companies will raise more money than the hundreds of tech firms that flooded the market at the peak of the 2000 bubble.

The historical data from 2000 shows exactly why this is dangerous for stocks.

That year, the market saw 446 IPOs raise a record $108.15 billion. The Nasdaq peaked on March 10, 2000, at the exact moment this massive supply of new shares hit the market, right before crashing 80%.

The crash happened because of a simple liquidity drain.

When giant companies go public, big institutional funds need cash to buy the new shares.

To get that cash, they have to sell their existing stock positions. This creates immediate selling pressure on the most expensive tech stocks.

Today, the setup is identical but much more concentrated. Instead of hundreds of small startups spreading out the drain, just three mega companies are absorbing the market's capital.

This directly impacts current market leaders.

Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion cloud backlog tied to OpenAI, and Oracle has 54% of its pipeline dependent on it.

The same big funds that need to buy the new IPOs are the ones currently holding these tech giants.

In the first quarter of 2000, the average IPO nearly doubled on its first trading day because cash was easily available.

By the fourth quarter, capital markets dried up.

Gross IPO proceeds collapsed 63% in a single quarter, and average first-day gains dropped to just 14% as companies rushed into layoffs and bankruptcies.

When an unprecedented amount of money is pulled out of existing stocks to fund a single massive IPO wave, the broader market historically runs out of the liquidity needed to sustain its peak.

[ハーネス @wellith6]

今回の阿部監督のような件があると、これまで見えにくかった問題が広く世間に知れ渡り、いかに自分が古い認識だったのかを知るいい機会になるという効果もありますね。
SNSで議論活発になるのはいいことだと思います。