J

[J @wervvuim]

@Christo08487755 @catchapstick @Silky1776 @patrick_just @TomerAzarly What are you even calculating then? The probability that a team wins the exact games that they won is always small!

[J @wervvuim]

@Silky1776 @Christo08487755 @catchapstick @patrick_just @TomerAzarly Ok my point is it's a completely useless stat. The probability that the Spurs went 62 for 62 in the games they won is astronomically small. Not a useful stat though

[J @wervvuim]

@Christo08487755 @catchapstick @Silky1776 @patrick_just @TomerAzarly You can't just exclude game 3 though. That's like dropping the 20 games the Spurs lost and parlaying the Spurs 62 wins together.

[J @wervvuim]

@Silky1776 @gppeixoto @patrick_just @TomerAzarly It's not a very meaningful stat though. I could do the same exercise with the 62 games the Spurs won and get a really tiny number.

[J @wervvuim]

@Christo08487755 @catchapstick @patrick_just @TomerAzarly You're missing his point. The math isn't wrong but it's just meaningless. You can't cherry pick only the times a team came back, while ignoring the times they didn't come back. You can literally do this same calculation with any team then.

[J @wervvuim]

@only_shans_ @jeremymonline @Khwastgaran Why would I care about your stat when you don’t even know what it means

[J @wervvuim]

@only_shans_ You suck at math

[J @wervvuim]

@TheAntMail This app literally just adds up PRA and then maps it to a win total using a monotonic function. Something my TI-84 can do. You have a very liberal definition of AI if you consider that AI.

[J @wervvuim]

@TheAntMail Predictive model does not equal AI.

[J @wervvuim]

@TheAntMail I have never heard anyone call a logistic regression (I assume what this app uses) as AI. But maybe we just disagree on semantics

[J @wervvuim]

@TheAntMail Buddy I am a stats major I do regressions for my job. Regressions are not AI

[J @wervvuim]

@TheAntMail So you just resort to insults instead of a rebuttal bc you have no idea what you’re talking about got it

[J @wervvuim]

@douglaschu_ @JackRNewhouse @WokeFDR Idk why you’re putting “need-based” in quotes. Anyone under 200k of parental income goes for free. They do not look at if you’re an athlete.

[J @wervvuim]

@2real30842261 @Oneiric47 Granted nembhard is one of the most extreme examples of all time and of the thousands of nba players, someone HAS to have had a lucky streak in the playoffs, so this could be considered p-hacking. Regardless, it is an extremely strong statistical signal.

[J @wervvuim]

@2real30842261 @Oneiric47 A career .521 efg% player shooting .596 efg% on 405 playoff shots is a 10 sigma deviation. Roughly 1/10,000 chance of it being random noise. Chalk it up to scheme or opponent but such a deviation over a 405 shot sample is not due to random variation.

[J @wervvuim]

@2real30842261 @Oneiric47 Andrew Nembhard not a playoff riser?

[J @wervvuim]

@JeromeDyson5 @gobucs8828 @theblockspot Forgot him fair shoutout

[J @wervvuim]

@TheAntMail The game could literally run on excel. My TI-84 is AI now I guess

[J @wervvuim]

@TheAntMail Since when was regression AI?

[J @wervvuim]

@NormanOtterman @c4Bostonn He’s a more aggressive but worse version of amen