AngloZurich

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@andycowens @geordiejosh Haha yes. Add pundits & journo’s being on the gravy train who don’t mention PSR/UEFA spending limits once, despite it being 99% of the implosion. Im finished watching football. Not because I’m rebelling. Watching any sport where one side has an unfair advantage is pretty boring.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@nickgiva1 Meh. France have looked unconvincing in spells until Mbappe just moves up the gears. Bellingham is world class & can do the same, which is all you need to win tournaments. Need more in the semis though. Rice fully fit and Gordon with a pair of bollox to run on the outside helps.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@RazorOil Indeed.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@ClarkSquareCap I was referring to the irony. It’s came from a President who has made it his mission to pump the equity market and even quantifies his success by how high it soars. Maybe that could reduce the future benefit for the young people he’s claiming to help. But, let’s ignore politics.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

https://t.co/4IG9Ruyaez

“Phase 1 is expected to maintain 30,000 bopd of production for in excess of 25 years.”

…Yet people focus on daily Trump tweets. $IPCO reserve life is huge, growth capex is rear view & Blackrod now in cruise control. Sit back & enjoy the free cash flow.

[BOE Report @BOEReport]

International Petroleum Corporation Corporate Update: Blackrod Phase 1 First Oil Achieved https://t.co/gqtKcHRUDP

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@geordiejosh as much as they want if they deliver like he does.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

$GFR capex of $200m for a 14k bpd asset undergoing worrying production decline = nasty. Meanwhile, $IPCO production about to surge with minimal capex requirements. Perhaps Adam Waterous / $SCR can bid 1000 SEK a share for $IPCO in 2028 for a modern SAGD plant, better team / rock.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@nickgiva1 @RestIsPolitics @Victoria_Spratt + lets hold rates at 0 for 13 years & moon RE prices. While we're at it, lets overshoot on regs & require a £80k deposit on a £300k house from a 40 yr old couple working at an Amazon warehouse. Actually, lets stress test their mortgage at 5% rates to really fk their affordability

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@SulleySteven Well done Tom. Great stuff.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@phil_hk @rockcreekfreak @ShaleTier7 Blackrod is enormous. Look at the 2p and contingent. They have a license to get to 80k bpd. 30k bpd is just phase 1. They wont want to sanction phase 2 in the 60s though. They will want phase 1 online and higher oil before green lighting. The torque is obv huge.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@phil_hk @rockcreekfreak @ShaleTier7 Their market cap is $3.0bn. Assume they get share count down to 100m shares 2028. Steamy yes, but say at 85 wti $500m in fcf (they are conservative) so $5 of fcf per share. Quite comfortable ascribing a 10-15x multiple on that given continuing growth prospects. $70 cad achievable

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@phil_hk @rockcreekfreak @ShaleTier7 A generous multiple is justified if blackrod phase 1 delivers. That implicitly means phase 2 is happening, especially at a higher floor in oil prices. The time synergies (e.g. road access/people) is big. Look at Leismer. The market, quite rightly, loves homogeneity/safe growth.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@phil_hk @rockcreekfreak @ShaleTier7 Fair enough. The newsflow is now at your back now though. Blackrod will start pumping and the company can generate 400+ usd fcf oil price depending (could be way north). Still in pre payout. Mcap really is nothing still. Big institutions arent involved but will come etc.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@phil_hk @rockcreekfreak @ShaleTier7 On the $450m bonds, they are now a non-issue. Small financial leverage relative to post Blackrod FCF. They have the RCF if needed. Bonds are termed out to 2031 and fixed coupon. They probably trade above par given rates rising currently. Balance sheet is rock solid.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@phil_hk @rockcreekfreak @ShaleTier7 Fair point. In retrospect, I didn't appreciate the risk I was holding in 2023/4 as oil could have cratered (the Saudi's bailed $IPCO shareholders out by cutting whole Blackrod was being developed) so i was lucky. I think its much cheaper now at a higher price.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@phil_hk @rockcreekfreak @ShaleTier7 On Suffield gas, the team are not trying to market this as a great asset. Its a decent hedge, allbeit not perfect, on Blackrod input costs. The company is net short gas from 2029. Who knows but the market is not bidding IPC based on Suffield lol.

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@phil_hk @rockcreekfreak @ShaleTier7 Im happy most folk think $IPCO is too expensive. They've been saying that for years while watching it go up. 2028 FCF per share is key (includes Blackrod ramped, NOSH reduction & Blackrod phase 2 sanction) $5-8 USD? Stick a good multiple on for RLI, growth prospects. Huge runway

[AngloZurich @westerhope2000]

@MLiamMcCollum No, you need some class back.