I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
Your greatest leverage comes from making consistently good decisions over time. This makes Twitter tricky. You're exposed to a decision being taken, and then later, to its outcome, but rarely to the underlying process that connects the two.
Left with only the decision and its result, your brain does what it’s wired to do: fill in missing logic by assuming outcome equals decision quality. The issue might not even be obvious: In the absence of process data, your mind defaults to judging decision quality based on observed outcome.
But this is structurally flawed, especially in high-variance domains. It causes you to copy noise, reject valid strategies prematurely, and misattribute success or failure, corrupting your own decision model in the process. A good decision can lead to a bad outcome due to randomness. A bad decision can lead to a good outcome by pure luck.
took us 3 months to build a school
special shoutout to the Indo gang for helping us spread this in the Indonesian crypto community @StressCapitals@JawaCapitalDAO@FrensPods, those chad help us out in the early days.
Designing Your Decisions
One of the most overlooked ideas in trading and in life is that decisions can be designed. Not every choice needs to be made in the moment. In fact, many of the most important ones shouldn’t be.
It’s something you figure out after years in the game: the edge isn’t just in spotting opportunity it’s in preserving the quality of your thinking when it shows up.
In trading, most of the damage doesn’t come from being wrong. It comes from making decisions when your mental state is off. Tired. Emotional. Frustrated. Burnt. That’s where you give back everything in one mistake, or a string of them.
So you start building systems.
Not algos. Just mental protocols.
- You reduce decisions.
- You default to “do nothing” unless clarity is high.
- You pre-make responses to scenarios while your head is clear.
- You block time to not decide anything at all.
The result is that when volatility hits, you're not scrambling. You’ve already decided what to do if X or Y plays out. You're not reacting you're executing a path you thought through when the pressure was low.
This isn’t productivity fluff. Decision fatigue is real. And in markets, it has a actual $ cost.
The more decisions you make, the lower their quality gets. You get sloppy. You forget to manage positions. You overreact to noise. You confuse action with control.
That’s how people blow up. Not from lack of information, but from cognitive overload.
The fix is counterintuitive: do less. Trade less. Decide less. Schedule less. Create gaps in your day where your brain can breathe. Walk. Lift. Think. Let ideas show up without force.
Some of the sharpest decisions aren’t made at a desk - they emerge in stillness, when the brain finally has space.
You don’t need to respond to everything. You need to respond to the right things - with the right mindset.
That’s the real skill: not just making good decisions, but protecting the state from which they’re made.
And it starts with treating decisions like capital: finite, valuable, and worth protecting.
If you're trying to predict the market, you're already losing.
Profitable traders don't predict—they play the odds.
Trading is a Game of Expectation.
A 🧵
mfer thinks mms are out to hunt them as if they’ve been chosen by citadel to be sacrificed at 9:47am sharp.
he built a cult based on conspiratorial framing and misused terminology
and i dont have anything better to do than debunk his bullshit.
a thread:
For those of you that didn’t get to join our first podcast, here’s the summary for the first frensPods!
Expect a lot more write ups and summary ~4-5 days after The Pods
Join us now https://t.co/HoifZ9eDzC
Introducing, frensPods
Where we trade and talk about condition of the market, live trading, or just yapping with frens.
Expect good amount and quality of guests!
Starting this week, May 23rd 2025.
Meet us every Friday 8PM Western Indonesia Time.
See you guys! https://t.co/DEuG0CTv2F
In any high-volatility, positive-EV scenario, the path to long-term profitability for the majority is careful position sizing.
It’s not about pushing EV as high as possible in a single shot, but about staying in the game and letting your edge work in your favor over many iterations without getting wiped out by volatility.