Arif Widianto

Founder @bolasaljucom. Periset saham. Programmer. Santri online.

Disclaimer: Penyebutan saham bukan ajakan beli/jual/hold.

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Apa ini sama dengan konsep seperti padi, makin tua makin menjadi?

🤭😆😁

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

You have noticed it. ChatGPT feels dumber than it used to. Your prompts that worked six months ago produce worse results now. The writing sounds flatter. The ideas sound safer. The internet itself feels like it is shrinking. Every article reads the same. Every email sounds the same. Every answer sounds like it was written by the same voice.

You thought it was you. It is not you.

Researchers at Oxford and Cambridge published a paper in Nature proving what is happening. They call it Model Collapse.

Here is the mechanism in one sentence. AI trained on AI-generated data gets dumber every generation until it forgets what real human data looked like.

The internet is filling with AI-generated content. Blog posts. Articles. Reviews. Comments. Social media. AI companies scrape the internet to train the next generation of models. Which means the next generation of AI is being trained on the output of the current generation.

Each cycle loses information. Not randomly. It loses the rarest, most unusual, most creative parts first. The researchers call these the "tails of the distribution." The weird ideas. The unexpected perspectives. The things that made the internet feel human. Those disappear first.

What remains is the average. The safe. The expected. The bland.

Then the next generation trains on that. And loses more. And the next generation trains on that. And loses more. The researchers proved this is not a slow decline. Major degradation happens within just a few iterations. Even when some of the original human data is preserved.

They tested it on large language models. On image generators. On statistical models. The pattern was the same every time. The output converges toward a narrow, flattened version of reality that looks nothing like the original data.

The lead researcher put it plainly. "Large language models are like fire. A useful tool. But one that pollutes the environment."

The pollution is invisible. You cannot see which sentence on the internet was written by a human and which was written by AI. Neither can the AI that is about to train on it. And once the tails are gone, they do not come back. The damage is irreversible.

This is not a prediction anymore. It is a diagnosis.

The internet you grew up on was built by humans writing things no algorithm would have written. Strange, personal, imperfect, alive. That internet is being diluted. One generation of AI at a time. And the models trained on what remains are learning a smaller and smaller version of the world.

Model Collapse is not a technical problem. It is a cultural one. The thing that made the internet worth reading is the thing that disappears first.

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Seringkali bagian tersulit dari mempelajari hal baru adalah melupakan apa yang sudah lama kita pelajari.

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Yang pingin belajar visualisasi data dari Wiley dll, ada buku konsep desain atau sistem/software: Power BI, Tableau, Google Data Studio, dll.

Total 19 buku.

Cek langsung ya: https://t.co/z8IXI6nP4g

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Atau Python dari @nostarch:

https://t.co/G16QtvqQVx

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Teman-teman coder, ada bundle ebooks #programming #fungsional dari @pragprog: Elixir, Clojure, Haskell, Kotlin, F, Elm, dan beberapa bahasa unik lain. Ada PDF dan Epub.

Dari 3 (3), 10 (6 buku), hingga 18 (17 buku). Sisa 5 hari.

Bukan pesanan ya 😁

Link 👇🏼

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

https://t.co/9Vh27YFoer

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Di pasar modal atau kehidupan, pasar bearish atau masa yang berat akan selalu ada.

Tapi ingat ini. Ada saat pasar bangkit. Ada kehidupan yang lebih baik.

Fokuslah mencari jalan ke tujuan yang baik, apakah di pasar modal atau kehidupan.

Foto: circa 2015

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

@lunedusk Mentalnya oke Kak 👍🏼

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Tidak menyangka melihat kembali BBCA di bawah 5000.

Sebuah era!

Senang? Jelas sekali!
Semangat? Pasti!

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

@RicoBalige Hehe 🤣

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Proyek open source bisa dipakai sebagai sarana belajar, berinteraksi, dan berbagi keahlian kita sekaligus menyumbang untuk kebaikan massal.

Dapat software gratis, bisa belajar, sambil merasakan sumbangan kita dipakai orang lain! Senang kan?

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Saya dulu mengira software sumber terbuka (open source) adalah semacam cara mendapatkan software gratisan.

Sudut pandang saya berubah sejak ikut mencoba kontribusi di proyek open source.

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Sudah lama banget nggak kontribusi di repo open source. Terakhir Feb 2020 di proyek WooCommerce.

Mulai dari proyek edukasi dulu. Bismillah.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

As with fat tails Llms are frequency machines that fail to extrapolate outside the sample set. What they know is the VISIBLE.

Almost as bad as economists, almost worse than psychologists.

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Ini kutipan quote dari Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

https://t.co/AESvLDwfMz

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Visible

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

PORTOFOLIO Memakai AGEN AI?

Saya tidak menafikan keunggulan dan efisiensi AI. Saya kira AI bisa bermanfaat untuk manajemen portofolio seperti di bidang otomatisasi transaksi dan operasional.

Tapi untuk decision making?

Yuk diskusikan.👇🏼

[Bolasalju @bolasaljucom]

Akhirnya ada yang memanfaat AI untuk uji coba portofolio.

Bahasan di bawah 👇

[Arif Widianto @widianto]

Tapi itu adalah oberservasi dan analisis saya pribadi dari skenario model yang mereka pakai.

Bisa saja saya salah. Biar waktu membuktikan.

Mari kita ebaluasi pada April 2027.
Sehat-sehat semua ya!