Will Scheffler

Researching public opinion @diffleypartners | Previously: @HouseofCommons, @ScotParl, @LSEMethodology, @WisDems | All views my own, not of employer 🇺🇸🇬🇧

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Our polling at @diffleypartners released this morning showed that a majority of Scots (53%) support the Scottish Government devolving more powers to local authorities, including 55% of 2026 SNP voters and 65% of Labour voters.

[The Scotsman @TheScotsman]

Scotland should give more devolved powers to regions and cities, says Andy Burnham https://t.co/b9mMDyumW0

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

The full polling, including results showing strong support for further devolution to both the Scottish Parliament and local authorities, as well as details of public opinion towards the Scottish Labour leadership contest can be found here: https://t.co/wrmvFInc9S

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

We’re delighted to release new polling at @diffleypartners today, in partnership with our friends at @Survation. Our research shows that Andy Burnham is the most popular leader in Scotland, and the only one with a positive net favorability score (+9).

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Despite this, there is little evidence that Burnham’s popularity has translated into a bounce in the polls for Scottish Labour, who remain about 15pts behind the SNP in our polling, and level with the support seen for the party in April 2026.

[YouGov @YouGov]

Which do you think it is possible to throw further: a baguette or a naan bread?

A baguette: 51%
A naan bread: 36%

[Survation. @Survation]

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

RFM 24% (-3)
LAB 24% (+5)
CON 21% (+1)
LD 11% (-1)
GRN 11% (=)
SNP 3% (=)
RB 2% (=)
PC 2% (=)
OTH 4% (=)

F/w 10-14 July 2026. Changes vs 17/06/2026

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Also on devolution, ‘Scotland’s Rural Voice’ polling conducted by @diffleypartners last year, found that giving rural communities power to make decisions about local services and development is popular among Scots living in both rural and urban areas.

https://t.co/VwhbpbUQ4e

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Clearly a great deal of signalling from Burnham throughout the by-election campaign and after on restoring hope and trust in the political system. Does he view increased devolution as a piece of this puzzle?

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Amidst the commentary on devolution today following Burnham’s speech, it feels timely to think about @diffleypartners 2025 polling for Electoral Reform Society Scotland.

Despite low ratings across the board, Scots tend to have more trust in institutions that are closer to them:

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Hard to overstate how astonishing a result this is for the Tories, who appear to have hoovered up Labour’s tactical vote.

Particularly given that so many 2024 GE Labour voters in Scotland were former SNP voters, these swings are rather impressive.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

🚨 | Aberdeen South Parliamentary By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 49.5% (+25.1)
🎗️ SNP: 28.6% (-4.2)
➡️ RFM: 8.6% (+1.7)
🌹 LAB: 5.4% (-19.4)
🔶 LDM: 4.4% (-1.9)
🌍 GRN: 3.4% (-0.1)
✊ ADF: 0.2% (New)

Conservative GAIN from SNP.
Changes w/ GE2024.

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

A truly seismic result for Burnham here after taking a huge risk and standing in a Reform-friendly seat. His camp will argue that this is proof of concept for his premiership. PLP colleagues should expect to hear a lot of “only Burnham can beat Reform” over the coming days.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election

🔴 LAB: 24,937 (+6,725) - 54.8%
➡️ REF: 15,696 (+2,893) - 34.5%
🟣 RES: 3,111 (NEW) - 6.8%
🔵 CON: 997 (-3,382) - 2.2%
🟢 GRN: 308 (-1,468) - 0.7%
🔶 LD: 163 (-2,572) - 0.4%

Changes w/ 2024
58.75% turnout

[Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley]

NEW from @Ipsos_in_the_UK: % of adults in the north west of England favourable towards parties & leaders.

- 48% favourable towards Andy Burnham.
- 22% favourable towards the Labour Party

Feels significant. Reform / Greens top but for Burnham.

analysis by @Ben_Roff17

[Miriam Brett @MiriamBrett]

Shetland has voted for the liberals for around 80 years. It’s difficult to convey the cultural shift that has happened today. And the result wasn’t even close.

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

A few early results in - Shetland has surprised everyone, but something we are keeping an eye on is that on average, MRPs look to be very slightly underestimating Labour in some seats and overestimating Reform. Remains to be seen whether this is early noise or a genuine trend...

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Looking to follow along with live analysis and commentary as Holyrood election results come in today? Follow along with our live blog from @diffleypartners 👇

https://t.co/YhHb19PgKR

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Following on from our final seat projection released earlier today, our latest @diffleypartners Holyrood blog takes a look at the tightest races across Scotland and the regions which could make or break party campaigns.👇

https://t.co/40jOiWZFkL

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Myself and other Diffley Partnership colleagues will be providing live commentary as the results come in tomorrow, discussing what early results could mean for the final outcome and how the polling/modelling has performed. Do stay tuned!

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Delighted to be publishing our final seat projection from @diffleypartners today:

SNP - 56
Reform - 19
Labour - 18
Greens - 16
Conservatives - 11
Liberal Democrats - 9

[Will Scheffler @will_scheffler_]

Labour look to be more competitive in the West of Scotland and *might* be set to upset the SNP in Clydebank and Milngavie - although this race is a toss-up.