Will Denyer

Chief US economist at Gavekal Research, father, husband, boater, and forever student

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

US net equity issuance was positive in 1Q, for the first time since 2001. Robust dividend growth is keeping the net shareholder payout positive for now. But with mega-IPOs, secondary issues, and shares unlocking months after the IPO, this could all weigh on equity multiples.

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

Korean equities have been on a tear. But forward earnings multiples remain attractive, as earnings have been revised up even faster than prices. Korea thus remains one of the few markets in the world with risk-adjusted valuations that can compete with US bonds. Brazil is another.

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

Based on Maurice Allais' "golden rule", bond yields should tend toward the structural growth rate of the economy. US 10 year yields only offer fair value today if you assume (as the market seems to do) that the Fed will get inflation back to 2%.

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

Gold Drops 6%. Why It’s Losing Out to Higher Oil Prices and Interest Rates. https://t.co/3mKDkPe2nv via @BarronsOnline

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

US treasuries and gold show strong return-to-the-mean tendencies when priced in oil. If this tendency persists, gold is vulnerable to a major price correction.

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

US spending on offices for computers has now surpassed US spending on offices for humans:

https://t.co/fQstRLnjUG

[Peter Lewis Money Talk @MoneyTalkR3]

with Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Asia CEO Forum at IMA Asia, Will Denyer, US Economist at Gavekal, and in Washington D.C., our US Economics Correspondent, writer & broadcaster, Barry Wood.
2/3

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

https://t.co/p6JrkCnXZG

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

The latest spike in oil prices could lift inflations expectations and make it hard for the Fed to cut rates further. If inflation expectations rise and stay high, hikes are even possible.

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

It would be inflationary, bearish dollar, and bullish gold. That is, unless the Fed decides to “sterilize” this new money by selling securities. If only the Fed had a Chair who wanted to sell mortgage-backed securities and long-term treasuries. Queue Kevin Warsh….

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

In 1973, the US Treasury issued gold certificates against its gold holdings, valued at US$42.22/oz, and sold those certificates to the Fed for freshly printed money.

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

It could revalue, reissue, and remonetize these certificates today, forcing the Fed to print US$1.3 trillion and give it to the Treasury. This could cover two-thirds of this year’s budget deficit, in lieu of additional borrowing.

[Peter Lewis Money Talk @MoneyTalkR3]

with Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Asia CEO Forum at IMA Asia, Will Denyer, US Economist at Gavekal, and David Roche, President & Global Strategist at Quantum Strategy.
2/3

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

Fed governors approved all regional Fed Presidents for another 5 year term, 1 month earlier than last time and 2 months earlier than required. This got it done ahead of Supreme Court hearing of Gov Cook’s case in Jan. Even harder for Trump to “pack the Fed” now.

[Gavekal @Gavekal]

US consumer staple stocks is one of a few potential contrarian trades for 2026. US economist Will Denyer explains five catalysts that could lead to US consumer staples outperforming in the coming year—breaking a long cycle of underperformance: https://t.co/eUGNGGnDmF

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

Good article about an important theme. I was happy to be a part of it. Driverless cars are now proliferating, which is great news. They will make the world safer and more productive.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

The economics of robotaxis are entirely different to either regular cabs or cars. We explain how self-driving vehicles will reshape cities https://t.co/saptOziCk9

[Peter Lewis Money Talk @MoneyTalkR3]

with Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Asia CEO Forum at IMA Asia, Will Denyer, US Economist at Gavekal, and in Washington D.C., our US Economics Correspondent, writer & broadcaster, Barry Wood.
2/3

[Diogenes @diogenes]

https://t.co/ZnHKS5BbRf

[Will Denyer @willdenyer]

Bond yields do not always fall after the Fed starts cutting rates...