cultured boar

Engineer & Python developer

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

SpaceX cannot pay a reasonable premium for the breakout that a lot of investors are holding Tesla for

I'm not holding a stock this volatile for a measly 30% premium, I hold it because I think it can reach $1000 (3T valuation) or more in a reasonable timeframe

In the merge scenario, we get a single entity at ~3T+ and it pushes back the "breakout" date by at least 5y because SpaceX will take at least that long to be worth the IPO valuation let alone more than that, and any cashflows Tesla generates get drowned in the infinite money abyss that is xAI and space-based datacenters

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@Marcus70672192 We aren't failing, the people of Europe are NOT and have NEVER BEEN in favor of this shitshow

Our politicians have betrayed us

and they will come to regret it

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@JohlMarc @RDWnl https://t.co/N20zeSwU7i

Naja dauert noch immer vmtl

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@DoctorJack16 One of the few scenarios where I'd loose most of my confidence in the company

you can solve freaking autonomy but not build an app? Please

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@TSLA_inside_ I swear, as a European this shit gets me every time and it is grating

🚨🚨🚨BREAKING🚨🚨🚨

European governments are starting to consider to maybe someday hold a meeting about the meeting to decide on FSD some unknown time and date ... maybe

HOW IS THIS NEWS😡

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@KaiPloeger Na 5 balls is doable in < 6 months, starting from 3

2 months to master 4 balls, another 4 to master 5 balls

6 and 7 is where it gets dicy. 6 months of practicing both and I still wasn't anywhere close to mastering either. 28 catches on 7 balls after 6 months ... it's hard

[James Stephenson @ICannot_Enough]

If you voted Yes last year, these are the market cap goals you voted to measure Elon’s performance against. Something to ponder— if anyone offers to buy all of your $TSLA shares, at… I don’t know…$600? 🤔

I’m not selling below $1169.420. Are you?

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@Patryn23 @WhatNarrative Finally a positive take on this merger bullshit

[Bobby Plewniak @BoBbyPleWniaK]

Any $TSLA investor that wants $SPCX exposure has the opportunity now to buy in. Sure, some may not want to sell due to taxes, but that’s their choice—and a decision they’ve had to live with since the 2021 highs. If anyone wants exposure to spcx, there are no restrictions.

I see no reason why $SPCX and $TSLA need to merge. As a $TSLA shareholder, I’d want more of a premium which as a spcx shareholder, I don’t want to play. If $SPCX’s market cap rises, that just makes a merger a worse deal in my eyes for tsla.

If $SPCX dumps to a sub-$1 trillion market cap and $TSLA can get 70% of the new company, sure, let’s do that. If spcx drops there, I’ll likely keep adding exposure to it on my own. I don’t need tsla to merge to get this upside.

Why now? Why not a year ago, two years ago, or during the 2021 run-up? Why all of a sudden now that xAI and SpaceX have run up and hit peak valuations?

$TSLA is nowhere near where we expect it to be.

Tesla is doing great. I don’t see why it cannot continue. I want it to fulfill the Elon comp plan we approved to keep him engaged with Tesla. This is what I voted for.

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@BoBbyPleWniaK @JOBhakdi I'm sorry but 2T ***is*** a very generous valuation for SpaceX already and merging anywhere close to the current shareprice is a slap in the face

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@muskonomy Softbank is a pretty good contraindicator

should I sell my SPCX puts?

[BOOM @boom_sausage]

I don’t want to give SpaceX investors my Robotaxi money. It’s pretty simple

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@DrTradeInt @EFIEBER_ANDRE kommt drauf an

E-Auto laden kann ich steuern, und das ist 50% meines Verbrauchs. Selbst mit so absurden Preisen, kommt ich im Schnitt auf <10c hier in Ö, weil der Energiepreis am Wochenende oft null ist.

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@litcapital yeah, the dump is in your future

I know why I'm holding SPCX puts for now. I'll switch to long in 6 months or so once this craze is over

might be wrong but I'll play the other side this time. Up 30% atm

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@grant_melson @DillonLoomis na it's actually really easy, because you just need to have the stance "0 accidents" and you can push it off indefinitely

we don't even know if zero accidents is possible, we always assumed 10x better than human would be enough. But last earnings it switched to 0 accidents...

[cultured boar @wiseboar7]

@DanielPriestley Don't worry, in Europe we have LLCs on paper, but in reality we got a bunch of laws that make (i.e. directory) personally liable if they make a mistake

So even if you set up an LLC you can get screwed by a bureaucrat who decides if he likes you

so we're back to 1855 over here

[Freedom Fulfilled @FreedomFulfill]

$TSLA influencers are going to have a meaningful negative impact to shareholder returns by pushing for this $SPCX merger before share lockups expire, and before the market has had price discovery. Watching the whole this is disgusting. Shame on you people

[John Carter @martianwyrdlord]

No one wanted mass immigration, in any of our countries.

But almost immediately following WWII, in every one of our countries, the legal framework was put in place to remove country restrictions on immigration.

Following that there was a global psyop to brainwash everyone into thinking that racism was worse than murder.

Following that policies were put into place to crash fertility. The pill, no fault divorce, women in the workplace, overpopulation propaganda, etc.

Following that, when the demographic crunch from the missing babies kicked in, and all the white boomers and their daughters were good and mindraped, the floodgates were thrown open, everywhere, all at once.

You will never convince me that this "just happened".

[🤖🧠👀 AI 4 Everman @Everman]

I see the fast-merger thesis is now “let’s not talk about price. Let’s focus on something else, shall we?”

Probably because giving up your $TSLA shares for $600 when you have a long term thesis they are soon worth $2,500 seems foolish.

Spoiler: it is.

Getting diluted BY HALF right before robotaxi in exchange for half of the $SPCX gains from space data centers in 3 years is imbalanced. Timing matters. A lot.

Counter proposal:
Merge in 2029.
Let robotaxi scale and TSLA hit $5T.
Let SpaceX get starship flying and see where they are at.
Terafab wont be making chips for 8-10 years anyway.

Simple, and everyone wins.

[Jesse🔋 @srvc76]

$SPCX | $TSLA

A merger today makes zero sense.

This is not a bullish or bearish view. It’s a market structure and capital allocation discussion.

Both companies carry substantial embedded value, but that value is tied to different timelines and investor expectations.

SpaceX is still in the early stages of public price discovery following the largest IPO in market history. The market is actively determining how to value Starlink, launch services, AI infrastructure and long-duration growth initiatives.

Tesla is being valued on the future potential of autonomy/robotics, AI & energy. Whether investors agree with the timelines or not, much of Tesla’s valuation is tied to multiple future phases of perfect execution.

Combining the two today would dilute both narratives rather than enhance them. The strategic rationale may exist over the long term. The market mechanics do not.

A merger would create a significantly larger and more complex capital-intensive entity, forcing investors to underwrite multiple long-duration investment cycles simultaneously.

In many cases, that results in a lower multiple than what the businesses can achieve independently.

Tesla Energy is a useful example.

Exceptional growth does not automatically translate into a higher valuation multiple when it sits inside a much larger organization. As businesses scale, markets often transition from valuing incremental growth to valuing consolidated cash flows, capital requirements and execution risk.

As investors, you have to evaluate both sides of the argument.

Today, I see far more reasons to keep SpaceX and Tesla separate than to combine them.

Just because you love both companies doesn’t mean they should be together 🤪

[The Limiting Factor @LimitingThe]

I don't share this sentiment because it's what I expected.

However, imagine if it keeps running and SpaceX acquired Tesla making it only about 40% of the combined entity.

That combined entity would be worth 4 trillion dollars.

In order to quadruple your money, the combined company would have to be worth 16 trillion.

Is that more likely to happen in the next 5 to 10 years, or is it more likely that Tesla could quadruple on its own to a market cap of $6 trillion in the next 3 to 5 years?