Wolverine Krypto

Mining Bitcoin, mocking fiat, dodging bad trades.
Daily takes on BTC, markets, and money moves.

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

1/5
Crypto Fear & Greed just hit 13. That’s not “scary”…

That’s the biggest flashing BUY SIGNAL Bitcoin ever gives you.

When everyone is panicking, legends are stacking.

Let me show you the receipts 🧵👇

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

2/

Everyone tradfi pod and VC shitting on @saylor

My mental model AND my tradingview model tell me this is a screaming buy

NFA.

Bookmark it. Lets review this in a year!

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

1/
Low fear and Greed correlates to outsized returns and vice versa. This may seem obvious but the narrative around crypto and $BTC is in the toilet.

Crypto Twitter is an absolute ghost town.

The anti Bitcoin crowd is grave dancing as they do every bear market

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@chinamaniac tag him?

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

"Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life" - Jerzy Gregorek

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@robpizzola Bro, it actually is your job lol

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@AntiquesDeva @PierrePoilievre @joerogan @CBCNews You're not from planet earth

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@AntiquesDeva @PierrePoilievre @joerogan He should have be on all pods. If center left, center and center right heard his message he'd have won by an absolute landslide.

It's hard to imagine how getting your message out on the biggest podcast in the world is stupid in any regard.

Enjoy @CBCNews 🙃

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@LukeWarmMining Any warranty left?

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@liuiam13 @bet_105 Whoa. That's a terrible look @bet_105

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@ronmortgageguy Ron,

You clearly understand the macro picture and that governments will print their way out. That makes hard assets like Bitcoin and gold the obvious trade. Feels like a natural lane for you to lean into.

Just my two cents.

Love the pod!

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@BitcoinNewsCom HOW

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@basso_tom @dubsndoo Very well said Tom

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@denverbitcoin @canaanio Fan Speed?

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@sweatystartup Been a +ev bettor for over a decade and I actually agree with Nick and @haralabob here.

Young men are getting absolutely smoked by gambling. It's not good for society all things being equal.

Mounting debt everywhere and they are sold a dream that is very hard to succeed at

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@spanky @HarryDCrane I've been a +EV for over a decade and I totally agree with Nick ironically.

99% of bettors are young men who are getting absolutely crushed. I see it everywhere.

Totally price insensitive and think picking sides is how you pick winners and become a winner.

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@JeffreyBenson12 @grpwins Jeff you are on quite the heater lately my friend!

[Wolverine Krypto @wolverinekrypto]

@Rajatsoni The humility is extremely rare on CT. Appreciate you

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

MICHAEL SAYLOR'S STRATEGY HAS CRASHED 56% IN JUST 56 DAYS.

Strategy holds $55 Billion worth of Bitcoin but its market cap is now just $47 Billion.

And here’s the confusing part:

One of the biggest fears around MSTR was the idea that they might be forced to sell Bitcoin to keep paying dividends.

But that risk is now off the table.

Strategy just set aside $1.44B in USD reserves, enough to cover 23 months of dividend payments without touching any of their BTC.

So the main reason people were worried is gone but the stock dropped even harder.

This is where the valuation gap becomes very clear:

↣ Their assets (Bitcoin + cash) are worth more than the whole company’s market cap
↣ Even after subtracting their $8.2B debt, the net value of their Bitcoin is still above the market cap
↣ Their LTV (loan-to-value) which means how much of their BTC value is backed by loans, is at very safe levels
↣ Their balance sheet is cleaner than it has ever been
↣ Their Bitcoin stack keeps increasing

Under normal conditions, a company with assets greater than its market cap usually trades at a premium.

But the opposite is happening.

Which brings us to the real issue:

The selling pressure on MSTR does not look natural.

In the last two months, several things happened at the same time:

↣ JP Morgan sharply raised margin requirements for MSTR trading
↣ The MSCI classification issue added more pressure
↣ Short interest increased aggressively
↣ Selling volume stayed high even on positive news
↣ Price behavior looked like forced or coordinated selling
↣ The drawdown is now one of the worst in the stock’s history

This does not look like regular market movement.

It looks like large players actively pushing the stock lower.

Some people are even calling it a new Operation Choke Point 3.0, but aimed at companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet.

Because here’s the basic math:

Strategy owns more Bitcoin than the entire company is worth at today’s price.

This is extremely rare.

You almost never see a company trade below the liquid value of the assets it owns, especially when those assets are something as straightforward to value as Bitcoin.

And remember, this is also the same company that:

↣ Has one of the strongest institutional BTC acquisition strategies
↣ Has predictable revenue streams in its software business
↣ Has stable gross margins
↣ Has low operating risk
↣ Has a long-term structure designed around holding BTC, not selling it
↣ Has no near-term liquidity issues
↣ Just increased its financial flexibility with the USD reserve

So the ongoing selloff has very little to do with the company’s fundamentals.

This is about positioning, leverage, and short pressure not balance sheet weakness.

Whether the stock rebounds quickly or takes time, the valuation gap between:

what MSTR owns and how the market is pricing it... is now one of the widest gaps in the company’s entire history.

And gaps like this do not stay open forever.

[Lindsay @lindsay__stamp]

Once you get to the point where the fiat price of bitcoin doesn’t matter and the only thing you care about is accumulating as much as possible, everything changes.