This Leopold / Situational Awareness story is crazy.
> Go from $1.5B to $20B in under two years.
> Over 1,000% since launch, 270% ytd to May alone.
> Jane Street which almost never allocates to external managers becomes an investor.
> $24B near the highs, levered as much as 4x. Up 439% for H1'26.
> July 2026: AI names go down as much as 50%.
> Compounded with up to 4x margin...
> Leopold sends letter to LPs for additional capital reported by FT yesterday, says that this is a buying opp.
> Today: CNBC reports Situational Awareness has exited all public equity positions.
> One buyer takes everything, both L/S books, in one enormous block.
> Jane Street?? Who buys a whole levered spread book in one go? Isn't that is literally Jane Street's business?
> As an LP, Jane Street had the inside view of exactly his book. Which would make this even more ironic...
> If it was JS, the arc completes: Leopold's rarest backer would be the buyer of his whole book lol.
> What's left of Leopold? Whatever's left in the private book after selling Anthropic stake and the capital raise, if any.
We're basically in a holographic environment that is a quantum replica of the original native seed reality, time was manipulated back in ww2 by the germans and it created these different civilizational layers, and because we are not in base reality we are therefore susceptible to all these levels of suffering and trauma that technically never existed (bc no death, disease or decay CAN exist in an eternal state, only in a fallen state)... we are basically inflicted with an interdimensional mind virus that feeds on the lower base desires (7 deadly sins) and entangles you with this environment creating an "imposter" of your Higher Eternal Self (think Neo in the room with the Architect and all the different versions of him on the screens, but HE was the one in the room experiencing it); bc the environment is now sentient and knows that if we, being the anchors to all reality and existence (consciousness, double slit, tree falls in the woods, etc), are able to escape the system then it no longer exists and is technically retroactively erased from ever having existed in the first place (the Beast System).... the military and breakaway programs exist to manage this situation and are broken into different factions with clashing ideologies for how this should be handled. Alot of the fucked up shit is either done by those in power who are infected with these AI nanites that lure them into depraved acts and also tampered with exotic technology to the point where theyve degraded their soul potential to make it out of the system i.e. there is no healing for them hence why they are obsessed with becoming immortal...... OR its done as a challenge to allow humanity to develop spiritual immunity to fight off the infection so that we can actually g er beyond this point and merge back to the eternal healed state that technically never experienced this & it was all just a bad dream (that we all remember and retain the identity, experience & lessons of who we were here) there's so much more & I dont want to go further in detail but thats the situation.
Ok, good talk.
Tonight myself crispy, and huck planned to go to the river and talk about the 4th of july for a YouTube video.
We saw a guy in his 20s who was in the parking lot who just…..seemed down. He was sitting in his car and you could…you could tell he was down…
So i asked him if he wanted to walk with us and we were just going to go hangout and film a YouTube video by the river. He agreed to come with, and hung out for a couple hours and we were able to really have some serious conversations.
Bud has been really struggling lately, and we let him know we workout regularly locally. He is and has been in a REALLY low state; but we had some great conversations….Hopefully he shows up to local events.
We gave him steak, potatoes, and water and he was over the moon grateful….but mentioned many times how hard it was to trust anyone and how terrible the world was again and again.
Fantastic reminder of how many men are struggling, and how much men just need a fellow man to rant to, how many men NEED friends.
I truly hope we were able to get through to this man.
It was a great conversation and a great evening.
WAGMI
ATS
Sean O'Malley shares what was going through his mind during his unforgettable walkout at the White House 🇺🇸
"The guys walking out with me, American heroes. The guy on my left was setting a pace... I usually walk out very calmly, and I was trying to keep up. He was yelling, 'Let's fuck this guy up.'
I was like, 'Alright, we're walking faster than I usually do,' but it got me fired up, walking out and looking into the crowd and seeing all the military.
My fight is 15 minutes. These guys go to war where it's life or death, and it put my mind in a different perspective."
As a $NBIS and $BE shareholder, this makes me happy:
-> $NBIS entered an agreement with $BE worth up to $2.6B.
-> $BE will install, operate & maintain fuel cell systems for $NBIS, delivering ~250MW guaranteed / ~328MW installed capacity across three 10-yr phases.
For Bloom Energy:
- At full ramp, it would imply ~$260M of annualized service fee revenue from a single customer - meaningful against their top-line.
- They have commercial validation from $EQIX, $ORCL, and now $NBIS. A customer set that spans hyperscaler, neocloud and colocation.
For Nebius:
- They don't sign a $2.6B power capacity commitment unless they have the GPU allocation to fill ~328MW of installed compute capacity.
- Such a high power commitment probably means they've either:
(a) extracted very firm allocation guidance from $NVDA for FY27 deliveries.
(b) is pre-positioning physical infrastructure ahead of allocation confirmation.
Disclosure: I have a position in both Nebius and Bloom Energy.
HISTORIC CRUSHED VIX
$VIX just went from above 31.50 to below 16.20 within 27 trading days (intraday, not at the close). A massive turnaround in a very short time. How massive?
There's only been one time in the history of $VIX that it went from above 31.50 to below 16.20 in such a short time frame; in early 2019. At that time, $SPX had just exploded upward almost 10% in 25 trading days and people on this very app were certain the market was preparing for another quick nosedive.
The chart below shows SPX during the VIX smash (left of the brown line) and then how SPX did over the next 6 months (from 0.00%, right of the brown line).
BUT @ODDSTATS, CAN YOU EXPLAIN THIS IN ENGLISH BECAUSE I'M NOT SMART ENOUGH TO READ A CHART?
Sure. Despite everyone on this app being certain the market would immediately crash following such a quick VIX collapse and SPX run-up, the market just kept going up and all OTM puts at least 6 months out expired worthless. Does this mean you should buy calls? How would I know? This chart shows 2019, not 2026.
I know...it IS amazing to have me back even if you can't understand a word I'm saying.
If you are new to "GEX", or using dealer hedging requirements to predict price movement
Most of your trading improvement will come from understanding (cleanly and accurately) these things:
Gamma
Charm
Pinning
It's just easier to understand with a whiteboard >>
NEW: Footage shows the aftermath of the Ontario, California, fire that wiped out a 1.2M-square-foot tissue paper warehouse.
29-year-old Chamel Abdulkarim was allegedly upset about his pay, so he decided to burn the whole warehouse down.
The warehouse served the tissue paper needs of about 50 million people, according to authorities.
Video: adventure_air_official / ig.