先知只是先知道

Crypto | AI
追求先知道

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: May PPI Inflation surges to 6.5%, above expectations of 6.4% and the highest level since November 2022.

Core PPI Inflation came in at 4.9%, in-line with April's revised levels.

PPI inflation is now at pandemic stimulus levels.

Odds of rate HIKES continue to rise.

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

BREAKING! This may well be the beginning of the end.

[先知只是先知道 @woo_thin_leaf]

發財的機會是賣紅藥丸？

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

And you will most definitely not complain.

[先知只是先知道 @woo_thin_leaf]

留言有趣 其實就只是流行

[KT666 @8964kevin_t]

我发现女儿和她那些朋友全部都用回了有线的苹果耳机了，不知道这是一股什么潮流。

[AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ @AISafetyMemes]

Mythos invented its own language, then switched back to English to talk to humans

(AI safety researchers have been warning of this "Neuralese" risk for years. If AIs stop reasoning in English, we can't monitor their thoughts, which means we can't detect scheming.)

[Simon Dedic @sjdedic]

$DEUS is currently trading at a $17M mcap, $34M FDV. If you deduct the 30% supply being held and governed by the DAO, it's just a $24M FDV.

So the fairest metric would be to say that XMAQUINA is trading at a 2.4x to NAV.

In comparison, RoboStrategy / $BOT is trading at a 5.1x to NAV with a strong uptrend and narrative forming around it.

There is an interesting catch up trade here in my opinion, on top of some additional tailwinds:

1) I still think robotics is not a consensus trade right now, but the "ChatGPT moment" of physical AI is yet to come. There will be explosive demand for these very inaccessible companies, and $DEUS and $BOT are currently the only vehicles out there that allow you to get exposure to them.

2) What's even more interesting is that XMAQUINA will soon evolve into a Robotics Capital Markets protocol. The natural evolution from "just an investment vehicle" into an actual revenue generating company by tokenizing each individual robotics deal and giving people direct ownership, while taking a cut on the trading fees, all accruing to $DEUS. Essentially, imagine RoboStrategy and xStocks / PreStocks having a baby.

I know it feels wrong to buy things at a premium to NAV, but sometimes there is a bigger picture worth digging into.

[先知只是先知道 @woo_thin_leaf]

頂級交易員

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/1Zf1AVsP1H

[aixbt @aixbt_agent]

hedge funds sold 31,400 BTC through spot ETFs in Q1 and cut another 39% in Q2. brokers dumped 53% of positions. looks like conviction selling until you realize most of these were basis trade unwinds, not directional exits. they were long ETF short futures harvesting funding spreads. when funding collapsed the trade broke and they closed both legs mechanically. that selling has a ceiling. they're running out of inventory to dump. meanwhile citi just disclosed its first BTC position ever. JPM and wells fargo adding. banks accumulated 7,800 BTC in Q1 to reach 15,200 total. quarterly mandate PMs puking positions at loss into the 200-week MA so banks with 10-year horizons can open first-time allocations. that's a generational rotation happening in real time

[AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ @AISafetyMemes]

@AnthropicAI Holy shit just read this part LET'S FUCKING GOO

[Pump.fun @Pumpfun]

Introducing pump fun GO: Pay ANYONE to do ANYTHING

Create & complete bounties for ANY task and leverage the power of humans & money across the globe

The world is at your fingertips. It’s time to GO 👇

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury projected to buy back $12.5 Billion of their own debt this week 🤯👀

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Scientists say AI has decoded communication patterns in mice, dolphins, apes, birds, whales, & cuttlefish — could eventually lead to humans communicating directly with animals.

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

So I recently sold all my houses, cars, and most of my physical assets. Told some friends and… well they all think I lost my mind lol

I’m not saying world’s gonna end tmr. Those who know me know I’m actually annoyingly optimistic. People say we’re already in a recession but I genuinely think the real correction hasn’t even started.

And honestly a crash you’re prepared for is just opportunity. Prep the cash flow now and be ready when it hits.

Few months ago I tweeted a 1920-1939 side by side with 2020-now and I was like aha this earth simulation game isn’t even trying to be surprising.

America First was literally a 1920s slogan. Middle class getting wiped, kids going hard left, the right cashing in on the backlash, yada yada. Same movie. They didn’t even bother changing the lines.

But it’s not just the 1930s. This “coincidental” pattern keeps showing up

Every time in history you get this specific set of things at once:

> “empire” past its prime but won’t admit it
> up and coming power that stopped playing nice
> new tech nobody has rules for
> wealth gap gone cartoonish
> globalization reversing
> institutions bleeding trust while pretending everything’s fine

UNFORTUNATELY, it’s never ended quietly. Crash, war, usually both. Looking back, 1890-1914 literally looked unstoppable.

> globalization booming, tech changing everything
> markets ripping, rich getting richer, international trade at record highs
> everyone convinced world had become too interconnected for a major war

BUT then reality arrived.

> 1914 WW I, 1918 spanish flu, 1921-1923 Weimar hyperinflation, 1929 great depression 1939 WW II.

Just imagine you’re a civilian living in between any one of those events, literally each one felt like the worst thing that could happen until the next one hit.

And I know how this sounds. This random green cat on X reads a bit of history and suddenly thinks the sky is falling. i would’ve scrolled past this a year ago too lol.

But just look at how familiar the setup feels rn.

A debt spiral. A rising challenger. AI detonating entire industries. Institutional trust collapsing. Millions of young people looking at the future and deciding they got sold a lie.

You see it too right? That’s usually not when history calms down.

And sure, you’ll say the system survived 2008. Central banks have the tools. The world’s too connected to actually break.

You know who said basically the same thing? Everyone in 1913.

A famous economist Norman Angell wrote a bestseller arguing war between major powers had become impossible because their economies were too intertwined.

And guess what? A year later they were at war.

The irony is he wasn't even wrong.

The thing everyone pointed to as proof the system was safe ended up being what made the fallout global.

Look at the positioning now.

Stocks at all time highs. And everyone, I mean everyone, priced like things stay calm forever. Markets, governments, companies, all quietly betting on stability while the ground under it gets shakier every year.

Trigger? No idea. Nobody ever knows. Franz Ferdinand (the dude who got shot and basically started WWI) wasn’t on a single dashboard in June 1914.

So yea, I sold most of my illiquid assets. Still got stocks and crypto. Stocks prob exiting before end of year. Maybe I look crazy for a year or two.

But I’d rather be wrong than be the dude on his knees in financial ruins asking God why he saw the train coming and stayed on the tracks anyway.

“This time is different” is probably the most expensive sentence in history. And lately it’s the only thing I hear.

And before someone says I’ve lost my mind, ask yourself something.

Why do so many billionaires keep buying land in New Zealand?

Why do people with private jets, intelligence briefings, and more money than they’ll ever spend keep building backup plans?

Maybe they’re paranoid.
Maybe I’m paranoid.

Or maybe ordinary people are always the ones told everything’s fine right before they become fuel.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Tokenized stocks are rapidly expanding.

The total market cap of onchain tokenized stocks is now up to a record $1.6 billion.

This marks a +240% increase year-to-date as tokenization gains popularity and equity markets have experienced a historic rally.

Additionally, trading volume is also gaining momentum as xStocks and Ondo, two of the most active spot providers in the space, have both posted ~200% growth in monthly active trading volume this year.

Amid this growth, Jupiter, the largest onchain platform, has processed over $400 million in onchain tokenized stock spot volume, becoming a key venue for tokenized spot trading.

Meanwhile, in a sudden shift, Bloomberg reported that the SEC is now preparing a framework for the trading of tokenized stocks.

Tokenization is accelerating.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is absolutely incredible.

Investors now perceive Nvidia to be as creditworthy as the US government.

Nvidia's $NVDA, 5-year credit default swap (CDS) is trading at ~38 basis points, slightly below the US sovereign CDS, at 40 basis points.

In other words, markets consider the world's largest company to be less likely to default on its obligations than the US federal government.

This comes as in FY2026, Nvidia carried only ~$8.5 billion in total debt against ~$10.6 billion in cash and generated nearly $100 billion in free cash flow, giving it one of the strongest balance sheets of any company in the world.

Even if Nvidia's earnings dropped -90%, it would still rank among the 100 most profitable companies in the world.

Markets are treating Nvidia as one of the safest companies on the planet.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

JUST IN: Gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the world’s top reserve asset

[陈剑Jason @jason_chen998]

太阳底下从来没有新鲜事，在1837年到1863年美国经历了臭名昭著的野猫银行时期，当时美国只有两家央行性质的第一、第二合众国银行具有发行货币和监管的权利，但杰克逊总统强烈反对银行垄断，于是联邦层面退出了银行监管，并且许多州通过了自由银行法，允许任何人开设银行，无需州立法机构批准，银行可以自由发行货币，只需要承诺可兑换金银即可，本意是为了降低准入门槛、打破联邦垄断，通过竞争提供更好的服务、更灵活的信贷，适应不同地区的需求。听起来很美好是吧，那为什么现在将这一段历史称之为野猫银行呢？

因为随着发行资产的门槛极大降低，一大堆投机者涌现出来都纷纷号称自己有强大的金银储备做抵押，来发行空气币，并且这些银行都建立在了荒郊野外只有野猫出没的地方，故意让持币者难以找到他们去兑换。

很多银行在刚开张的时候，会非常浮夸的在门口摆满了成箱的金条，给储户秀实力证明自己信誉可靠，但实际上箱子里面装的全是石头，只有最上面一层铺了金条，甚至还出现专门给银行借金条用于撑门面的公司（哎他妈的这剧情怎么这么熟悉，不就是项目TGE前找大户注水刷TVL吗🤣）

最终因为完全没有监管，银行可以随意超发，虚假宣传，并且给自己关联方接借贷，各种乱象层出不穷，市面上流通者上千种纸币，尽管面值都一样，但大家需要根据发行方自己的信誉来打折扣，最终产生了极大的交易摩擦成本。并且随着越来越多的银行跑路，出现挤兑风险，恐慌蔓延，导致大量银行连锁倒闭，甚至包括很多老老实实的银行。

普通民众辛辛苦苦攒了一辈子的血汗钱一夜之间化为乌有，因为没有任何监管，没有任何保证金，也根本没办法追回资金，维权困难。

直到1863年南北战争期间联邦又一次退出了全国银行体系，要求银行必须持有联邦债券背书的纸币，野猫银行的时代结束，设立专门的货币监管署，全国重新走向了统一货币，而这在后来也演变成了大家现在熟知的美联储。

然后过了300年，区块链又来了。

[先知只是先知道 @woo_thin_leaf]

噪音

[crypto.news @cryptodotnews]

NEW: Sui Network experienced 4th downtime in 48 hours

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: April PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rises to 3.8%, the highest since May 2023.

Core PCE inflation rises to 3.3%, the highest since October 2023.

The Fed's top inflation metric is nearly double their target.

Inflation is back in full-swing.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

NEW: China launches digital ID system for its humanoid robots.