Sure, the price will drop so much that it prints another "bullish divergence." But are you really going to "buy the dip" into a death spiral? That’s the real question.
I'm not here to be exit liquidity for the team and trapped holders."
In a downtrend, a "bullish divergence" between price and fundamentals (like TVL/fees) is usually just a value trap.
Why? Because DeFi is highly reflexive. Falling prices cause TVL to bleed and volume to dry up,
I just added $LIT to my portfolio after comparing it to $HYPE
The current price of $LIT is poor: from the peak has decreased by more than 65%, FDV is only $1.1B (just 3.6% of the FDV of $HYPE).
Compare revenue (annualized in the last 14 days):
> Lighter: $60M
> Hyperliquid: $760M
→ Lighter's revenue is approximately 8% of Hyperliquid's revenue.
P/E ratio:
> Lighter: 18x
> Hyperliquid: 39x
→ $LIT is 2.2x cheaper than $HYPE.
Buyback (past 30 days):
> Lighter: $4.25 million (1.6% market cap)
> Hyperliquid: $41 million (0.6%)
→ Lighter acquired relatively stronger.
Volume & fees 24h:
> Lighter: Volume $2.9B
> Hyperliquid: Volume $7.9B
I see @Lighter_xyz is not far behind @HyperliquidX but in terms of price, $LIT is significantly lower.
This is my personal opinion, not investment advice. Good luck!
Suddenly, the illusion that the token is "undervalued" because of a low MC/TVL ratio completely disappears. In a market losing liquidity, the chances of this happening are extremely high.
When this happens, the $LIT price will dump even harder.