Jotanus

Nur noch mit Ironie zu ertragen

[TheStockGuy @TheStockGuyTV]

Every stock you don't own looks like this right now

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🇺🇸🛢️US oil and petroleum product inventories just hit a 22 year low.

The last time stockpiles were this low, the iPhone didn't exist....

48 hours ago, ExxonMobil's SVP Neil Chapman told CNBC inventories were heading to "really, really low levels" and physical Brent would move to $150–160 in 2 to 3 weeks.

This chart is what Chapman was looking at when he said it.

Here's the question every trader should be asking: if combined crude and product inventories are at a 22-year low, why is Brent still trading at $96?

The answer is in my latest article, link in the below comments

[NZ ☄️ @CodeByNZ]

CEOs after spending $500M on AI and still not finding growth

[Midas @DeFiMidas]

ANTHROPIC VALUATION: $965B
EXXON VALUATION: $780B

ANTHROPIC REVENUE: $47B
EXXON REVENUE: $340B

AI IS A BUBBLE

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️US private credit stocks are in FREEFALL:

Shares of Blackstone, Blue Owl, Apollo, and Ares all fell more than -4% on Wednesday, extending year-to-date declines of between -20% and -40%.

This comes as Cliffwater's $31 billion Corporate Lending Fund reported ~17% redemption requests in Q2, forcing it to cap withdrawals at 5% for the 2nd consecutive quarter.

This has triggered a fresh wave of fear across the $2.0 trillion private credit market.

Retail investors are increasingly requesting their money back on concerns that private credit funds are heavily exposed to software and technology businesses at risk of AI disruption.

The gap between private credit stocks and the broader market has rarely been this wide, and it keeps growing.

[philarekt @philarekt]

Two times in history

Both ended in -60%

But sure this time is different

[Dividend Hero @HeroDividend]

This is what investing is like in 2026

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Three customers. 64% of the money Nvidia is owed.

The investor who shorted the 2008 housing crash just bought puts on 1 million Nvidia shares, and that one number is the reason.

It is not the size that matters. It is the slope. Those three were 33% of Nvidia's receivables in 2020. They were 56% last quarter. They are 64% now. The dependence has nearly doubled in six years, and 8 of those points landed in a single quarter.

Here is the part the headlines skip. The money Nvidia is owed is now more concentrated than the money it earns. For the first time in 13 quarters, its single biggest customer claimed a larger share of receivables while taking a smaller share of sales. Burry's read: that buyer is paying slower than it is buying, or orders got pulled forward. His phrase for it, a finger on the trigger.

His thesis: today's AI spend is a benchmarking race, not durable demand. Empty planes flown for the leaderboard. Nvidia has fallen 43% to 67% in past cycles, and he thinks the next one is worse.

And the same three giants are building their own chips, Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium, Microsoft's Maia, to need Nvidia less every year.

Now the bull case, and it is real. Nvidia discloses all of this by law, still collects its cash on time, and is rated 39 buys to 1 sell. The cloud giants have lined up $660 to $700 billion of AI spending this year alone.

So this is concentration, not a crime. One of those three delaying, renegotiating, or shifting to its own silicon would hit the most important cash flow in the market harder than anything else. A real fragility. Not proof the demand is fake.

The test is the next filing, in August. If the three slip back under 60% and the cash keeps flowing, Burry is early. If their share climbs or payments slow, the finger tightens.

The number is real, and Nvidia disclosed it. Whether it is a warning or just arithmetic is what the next two quarters decide.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🔴THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE:

US technology and communication services sectors now reflect a RECORD 50% of the S&P 500's market cap.

Since 2018, this percentage has more than DOUBLED.

By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, the tech share was ~44%.

Meanwhile, 12 companies accounted for 12.2 percentage points of the S&P 500's +16.3% total return in April and May.

The level of market concentration is absolutely huge. For how long can this last?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Jobless Claims Jump As US Tech Firms Announce Most Job Cuts In 2 Years https://t.co/060Ci65iE9

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

California is about 4 weeks away from running out of jet fuel and diesel.

The issue is that there is no pipeline setup to get these fuels to California from other parts of the USA.

There are simply not enough tankers arriving in California to meet current demand.

The Strait of Hormuz is reducing oil supply and certain areas of the world without their own refineries are losing access to fuel.

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

97% probability $SPY crashes at least 10% after June 15.

There's 4 massive reasons $SPY can't avoid it:

1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.
Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before $SPY crashed 78%.

2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17
Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.

3. $MU $ORCL earnings is the peak of market
Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops. $MU peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.

4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year
Midterm years average a 17% $SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw $SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.

♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share with you my $SPY target for the crash.

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

🚨 CRASH: JAPAN

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Tremor.

It’s a start.

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Stock Market says Goodbye to Greed for the first time in almost 2 months 🫡

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️Bearish bets on US stocks are rising to levels not seen in over a decade:

Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock jumped to 3.0% of market cap, the highest since 2012.

This is DOUBLE the level seen during the 2020 Crisis and approaching the Great Financial Crisis levels.

Furthermore, short interest among the most heavily shorted 10% of S&P 500 stocks surged to 8.0% of market cap, the highest since 2018.

Both metrics now exceed the levels seen during the MARKET CRASH that followed the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst.

Are some investors betting for another crash?

[DeFighter @0xdefighter]

THE S&P 500 IS RUNNING THE BITCOIN PLAYBOOK

Called the BTC dump before the 30% drop

Nobody wanted to hear it, played out anyway

Same liquidity drain now hitting equities

Different asset, identical mechanics

Broadening wedge topped at $7,550

$6,200 breakdown is next

35% of the entire index concentrated in 8 names

Meta already cracked 7% in days

One more domino falls and the narrative collapses

Market moving exactly where it needs to trap the majority first

Seen this setup too many times to ignore it

Follow me - next update incoming as this plays out

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years.

The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972:
– 1973 Inflation: -43%
– 1987 Liquidity: -30%
– 2000 Tech: -47%
– 2008 Credit: -55%

Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk.

Right now, all four are present at the same time.

1. INFLATION
A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months.

2. LIQUIDITY
The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026.

3. TECH
Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern.

4. CREDIT
Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time.

Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present.

But here's the part nobody talks about

While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead.

– Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points
– Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows
– HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia
– Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low

The last time this happened?

December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price.

Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%.

What followed:
– Berkshire +29% over the next 24 months
– Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months

The setup today

Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years.

The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this.

Quality stocks aren't out of style.

They're being orphaned.

That's when generational positions are built.

The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time.

History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.

[Lexa 🇩🇪 @rebew_lexa]

Netzfund 💯‼️

[Georg Pazderski @Georg_Pazderski]

ZWEIERLEI MASS❗️

Gegen den GRÜNEN Banaszak wird wegen Steuerhinterziehung ermittelt - Zweitwohnung „vergessen“ beim Finanzamt zu melden.

Hofreiter hatte es auch vergessen.

Michael Ballweg saß wegen 19,53 € 9 Monate in Untersuchungshaft - war halt kein GRÜNER!