Hi All, we now have an official text of the USA-Iran MOU from the US point of view. It is extraordinary. The US is in a far weaker position than before it started this war fewer than four months ago. Here is a free, blow-by-blow description why.
BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Ministry now officially confirms that no Iranian nuclear commitments and uranium handover exist or will exist in any draft agreement with the US, calling all reports that claim otherwise a "pure lie," making further talks pointless due to the US insistence on this issue.
Based on that issue, the statement declares "we are not signing any agreement with the US" and "no one can claim we are close to reaching an agreement." Iran separately stated to Tasnim they are now on the verge of "cancelling" the negotiations completely.
Told my wife to have dinner ready at 6 or I will obliterate her entire civilization.
She now charges me a fee to use the bathroom, that used to be free, and I didn't get dinner. WTF
Iranian official to Al Jazeera: "The US has so far rejected our two main conditions - payment of compensation and recognition of aggression against us. The issue of closing the Strait of Hormuz is still on the agenda."
IRANIAN MEDIA SAYS THERE WAS NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTACT WITH TRUMP AND CLAIMS HE WITHDREW AFTER THREATENING TO ATTACK WEST ASIA ENERGY FACILITIES: RTRS
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They had all weekend to think something up. The best they could come up with is sailing into a turkey shoot…
Think it’s time to accept the obvious. Hormuz opens when the Iranians want it to open. Only way Trump can force the issue, is troops on the ground, but we need a force projection that is Gulf War 1 or larger in scope to do this. That takes 6 months to assemble and involves calling up reserves. Does Trump dare to do this?? Can the world make it 6 months with Hormuz shut??
Feel damn good to be running long vol and lower gross. Gonna be a great opportunity to gross-up as this becomes apparent to everyone else…
BREAKING: The G7 countries have concluded their meeting on a potential 400 million barrel release from oil reserves.
France's Finance Minister says "we are not there yet" on a deal for a joint release of reserves.
Oil prices are surging toward $105/barrel on the news.
2026 is set to be a big year in the market with a new Fed chair on the way.
The macroeconomy is shifting and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable.
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Curious to see if the market sells this bounce at the open.
So far they have a bit.
If the bounce holds we could see a rally.
This is an important day imo.