Travis Wright

Field notes about life, craft, and markets. @uscviterbi ✌️

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

listen
for the silence
they’ll never tell you
— the music’s stopped

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

init gravity.exe

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

@SacAppraiser Great read! Your point about the increased risks of overpricing in a declining market was 🎯

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

Friendly reminder to mute anyone in Q1 who told you the world was going to end.

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

Friendly reminder to mute anyone in Q1 who told you the world was going to end.

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

@DaneKurtz Welcome back!

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

#Bitcoin Post-Halving Performance Index

The next 10k block window is the most obvious layup in all of finance.

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

#Bitcoin Post-Halving Performance Index

Time to lock in. See you at the top.

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

#Bitcoin Post-Halving Performance Index

Time to lock in. See you at the top.

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

@SacAppraiser This was a great read. Appreciate all the analysis work you do!

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Anybody suggesting a recession is imminent is ignoring reality.

Graphic from Apollo

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

This evolution is incredible

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

Excellent thread 👇

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

Existing home inventory: near record low.

New home inventory: near record high.

What's the real story?

Let's explore the true US housing inventory situation and what it means for the construction sector and the broader economy going forward 👇

1/x

[Dylan Jardon 🌈 @DylanJardon]

"Perfection is impossible.

In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches.

But what percentage of points did I win?

54%

In other words, even top ranked tennis players win barely more than half the points they play.

When you lose ever second point on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.

You teach yourself to think:
'Okay, I double faulted...it's only a point.'
'Okay, I came to the net and I got passed again...it's only a point.'

Even a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN's top 10 playlist – that too is just a point.

Here's why I'm telling you this.

When you're playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world. And it is.

But when it's behind you, it's behind you.

This mindset is crucial – because it frees you to fully commit to the next point with intensity, clarity, and focus."

–@rogerfederer

[Wrath Of Gnon @wrathofgnon]

#Biophilia in urbanism: organic, sustainable, human scaled. #GoodUrbanism

[Science girl @sciencegirl]

Waves against the cliffs of Inis Meain, Ireland

📹damiensdoodles

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

@CryptoCX1 @sweatystartup What are your favorite alternatives?

[Tim Ferriss @tferriss]

The most important actions are never comfortable. Fortunately, it is possible to condition yourself to discomfort and overcome it. I’ve trained myself to propose solutions instead of ask for them, to elicit desired responses instead of react, and to be assertive without burning bridges. To have an uncommon lifestyle, you need to develop the uncommon habit of making decisions, both for yourself and for others.

[Tansu Yegen @TansuYegen]

So simple👏

[Travis Wright @wrightology]

Thought provoking

[Rex St. John @rexstjohn]

Strong Evidence Of Simulation

#1: Existence of “Sleep.”

Isn’t it convenient that every conscious animal blanks out all their memory of the prior day every night? Almost as though clearing limited RAM is programmed in.

From an evolutionary perspective, it makes zero sense: Wouldn’t animals evolve that don’t sleep and eat all the animals that do sleep? Defies reason.

#2: Boring Local Solar System

Isn’t it useful from the perspective of conserving processing power that all the other planets in our area are barren deserts? Really saves on processing doesn’t it.

#3: Quantum Theory / Schrodingers Cat

How weird is it that outcomes depend entirely on being observed. Almost as though reality doesn’t get rendered unless it needs to be. That sure would save a lot of processing power.

#4: Existence of people who won’t change their opinions no matter what evidence you show them, people with no internal monologue

A huge percentage of people NEVER change their opinion regardless of how much new information they are shown.

This begs the question: What is the point of being conscious if you never change your mind?

#5: 50-70%+ of scientific studies can’t be replicated

Almost as though reality changed after being observed. Imagine scientists doing an experiment, getting a result, then being unable to recreate it. Does it really make sense that happens so predictably?

#6: Existence of a Placebo effect

How is this even possible? A significant percentage of people get health results based on what they believe? It is weirdly congruent with faith healing practices while also being “scientific.” It should be impossible.

#7: Double Slit Experiment

Particles which are also waves.

#8: Extremely “intelligent” people disagree over basic facts

How is it possible that so many extremely intelligent and logical people disagree?

If you have Albert Einstein, Steven Hawkings and Elon Musk (example): How can all three be unable to come to a consensus, consistently in our reality?

We are used to the smartest people never agreeing. Should we be?

#9: Constantly changing scientific consensus about origins of the Universe

Was there a big bang? Did everything originate from a single point? Or didn’t it? How come now we are hearing that there are galaxies older than the universe? Whatever happened to dark matter and string theory? Why do all the basic facts and observations keep getting scrambled?

It is almost as though noise, disinformation and chaos, static are deliberately being injected to prevent consensus.

#10: Existence of common distance paradoxes

It is impossible to measure a coastline because when you try to do so, the result is infinite. The more you zoom in, the more detail there is, the longer the distance is.

Has anyone ever actually looked into that? When you look too closely and start asking questions, scientists and mathematicians start waving their hands and muttering things about string theory. We just pretend it’s not an unsolved problem.

#11: Irrationality of economics and stock market

No one understands the markets yet they should be easy to understand. Why are stocks always randomly jumping around? How come no one can answer simple questions like “is gold an inflation hedge?” These are very simple questions.

#12: Profusion of very simple questions which are unresolved

Huge number of unresolved basic questions like “is there good and evil?” Or “what does it mean to be a good person?”

How is it possible that the simplest questions remain open, no matter how much evidence is available? Many examples.

Conclusion:

My conclusion is it seems like reality is deliberately being scrambled to prevent consensus on any topic, for unknown reasons. It is almost as though we are being cryptographically attacked by a hostile information system with the express goal of preventing truth discovery or improving our understanding of our reality. It can’t be an accident.

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

The Andromeda galaxy is 6 times bigger in the sky than the full Moon: it's just too dim to clearly see it with the naked eye.

This composite image shows what it would look like at night if it was just brighter.

[📸 Tom Buckley-Houston]