Dealer gamma is the dominant force. The desk is in positive gamma — long gamma — dealers SELL strength / BUY weakness, pinning price toward the walls (range-bound). The call wall at 7,500 is the ceiling magnet and the put wall at 7,450 the floor; the gamma flip sits 7,471 — above it volatility is suppressed, below it dealers add to moves. Today opened 7,495, first prints 7,495–7,540.
The market is pricing a ±77-point session (VIX 16.2 → 1.02% 1-day move). Against that, realized volatility is 17.8%close-to-close and 14.3% on a range-based (Garman–Klass) basis, leaving a variance risk premium of -1.5 pts — NEGATIVE — realized vol exceeds implied, a warning that the range can EXPAND beyond what's priced. The 14-day average daily range is 1.06%, consistent with the projection above.
Check out $INTC EMIB-T in real-time here, with the exclusive visualizer I made out. Focuses on MIM caps, along with TSVs and the electric flow.
Link: https://t.co/kKuOi1fyh1