Last week, $SCZ published it's Q2 2026 production data with growth across the board (17% in Silver and 7% in Zinc over Q1), especially at it's Bolivar mine, which has made big progress and increased processed ORE vol and grade, and resulted 32% QoQ increase in Silver production.
In Q1, SCZ published Avg Silver Sale Price of $63.6, which was substantially lower than avg $84 LME Ag price. the MD&A explains that shipments are provisionally priced and then finally settled "typically one to four months after delivery," based on the market price at that later date. This creates a built-in lag between when metal is produced/shipped and when its final price is locked in. Based on this built-in price lag nature, we should expect higher Q2 avg Silver sale price.
According to factor that we expect both higher production volume and higher sale price in both Silver and Zinc, I expect SCZ will report a much better financial report in couple weeks compare to Q1. Below is my estimate based couple assumption:
EST 1 in blue line, assume SCZ maintain roughly 50/50 in Silver and Zinc, and have an average 12% growth in overall production and REV. The production increase and grade improvement also bring down the AISC, and result the even higher improvement in earning and EBIDTDA by about 20% compare to Q1.
EST 2 in green line further factor in and estimate 10% improvement in sale price on both Silver and Zinc, which will result additional 10% in REV, and I applied 80% of the increased Rev to the bottom lines.
Based on this estimate, $SCZ $SCZM is currently trading 2.9xEV/Net Earning, and 2.1xEV/EBITDA, Which, IMHO, is the most undervalued among all #SILVER producers, and none of others are even close to in terms of the similar earning matrix comparison.
P.S. Since this estimate is based on production growth and price increase compare to Q1 report in percentage, so the factors of 45% ownership in Bolivar and Porto and San Lucas Margin business are factored in automatically.
@TheApeOfGoldST@DonDurrett
The next leg up will be epic!
Ongoing de-dollarization trends, massive central bank reserve diversification into gold, and concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits/debt.
Gold is a hedge against fiat debasement and questions about the USD’s long-term reserve status.
This is the modern equivalent of the post-Bretton Woods shift.
@bozkaschi Since the high of wave 3 pointed to around $115, so it’s likely we’ve run the course of 4, or very closely. Either way, it’s very remarkable job back in 2020
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You should check out Santa Cruz Silver SCZ.V SCZM, about 10M Silver Equal annually, trading about 3x FCF at the current silver price (the best value among all Silver producers IMHO). No debt and generating FCF every Q, developing its Surabaya project, company expects to get the permit this summer, and starting production lasted this year. The will use PAAS mill facility nearby or haul to their existing 3 processing facilities initially while building its own processing facility (should be able to fund it with FCF), it will add 4M oz silver annually once in full production.
Hi Bear, what you draw is a quarterly chart. If you look at the last break out at 1973, it has 4 green bars before it starts to pull back (the 2010 break out should not be considered as one since it's within 1980 high). The current pull back we are experiencing is really in daily chart level, in your quarterly chart, so if we look back in years, you may not even see it if we close the Q with a green bar. So I'm not sure if it makes much sense to talk the $24 number you mentioned on a quarterly chart. If we repeat something like 1973 beak out, and have 3-4 green bars in this quarterly chart, we will reach a lot higher in 2026. Just my 2 cents to share, and hope it makes sense.