1/ On Losing Faith
Is it over?
Was it all a fever dream?
Have we run out of steam?
Is it time to pivot to AI for real this time?
2/ Everything is dead?
BTC: DAT premiums down, nobody cares
ETH: Stablecoin
Alts: Crushed
NFTs: Right click saved
Meme coins: As expected tbh
Zcash: Pumping! which ofc means "cycle is over"
3/ This is the worst cryptotwitter timeline I have ever seen relative to the environment.
Nobody is attacking us, USA is being reasonable and rational, no CEX has run away with our money, and yet, dead, dead, dead.
No narrative, no spark, nothing.
4/ Why?
I read the timeline and it tells me:
a/"nobody owns BTC" (odd, I mean someone has to own BTC, there is a ton of BTC)
and
b/ "the gamblers have liquidated themselves (again)" - true, but it was always like this
5/ This TL feels different. This does not feel like
"fuck I got liquidated", it feels like malaise, tiredness.
Like boredom, to be honest.
I know you think it is the price action but the price action is obviously downstream from psychology.
6/ I have a different view of what is going on.
I think almost everyone forgot what matters, chased after things that did not matter and, we are in the process of discovering they don't matter.
7/ What matters? Only decentralization, only permissionlessness. Nothing else matters at all.
Everything else about crypto is WORSE than a centralized database and always will be because that is how computers work.
8/ In my view, basically everyone "major" except vitalik has strayed from the light on this.
Let's start with Team BTC which USED to be very interested in how to build a network that become nation-state resistant.
This was the BTC of Antonopoulos, of Lopp
9/ We are 5 years into the BTC of Saylor and that BTC is 100% about driving price action.
It is about driving flows to BTC, about getting fully integrated with the USA financial system.
10/ It sounds nice, it sounds better than the system beating us with a big stick, but the net effect is that more and more BTC ends up in Coinbase Custody in New York State
Nothing wrong with that, but none of that BTC is nation-state resistant.
It is 100% non-resistant to the US government specifically.
11/ The problem with this is that with permissionlessness off the table, the only thing left to drive purchases of BTC is FOMO.
"there are only 21M, they are going to run out, you need to buy some before others do and it goes exponential"
12/ I mean, maybe that is true.
I am not making price predictions, I still own BTC and always will I think.
But it is cringe, and it is wrong.
13/ You can think about this by taking it to the extreme case and trying to understand which of the two scenarios adds value to the world.
14/
Scenario A: Blackrock owns all 21M BTC, everyone on planet earth owns shares in the Blackrock ETF and Brian Armstrong is in charge of making sure we don't lose Our Precious
Scenario B: Everyone on earth has their own BTC wallet and BTC is distributed in several billion places around the world and it is literally impossible for any government to stop BTC
15/ In Scenario A, BTC is a complete and utter failure. It is just a pet rock. Yes it is "rare" but it is also "100% seize-able by the USA government"
At which point, it might as well be an IOU from the USA government that it pinky-swears is rare
16/ "but it is not like this because other nation-states are accumulating and game theory blah blah blah"
No my brothers and sisters.
The exact scenario where your BTC get seized is a) centralized and b) hyperbitcoinization
Maybe the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is happening and it is your ETF and $STRATEGY (TM) capital stack all along (thank you for your contribution to our national security)
17/ To be clear, nobody is seizing your BTC (let alone your ETH) now because it is not important enough yet.
But, if it was, I dunno, I would not trust those centralized vehicles.
CEO, Board, shareholders, SEC, US government, state government, custody firm, their regulators all have an angle of attack on a DAT.
18/ If USA seizes BTC, other countries won't save you:
EU: "Thank god our dreams have come true, we can ban it also"
UAE: "grumble grumble, but fine we will go along"
China: "ban. unban. ban. unban. anyway so long as currency is not free-floating, BTC won't be free here"
Russia: "someone falls out of a window"
19/ Of course, BTC in ETFs is by no means the worst of it. The "crypto's main use is a casino" crowd is the worst.
This is not a zero-sum game, it is a negative sum game because it is rigged.
20/ "what about the JPGs huh?" -> I still love them.
The best ones are the best tokens in the world by far, rare, suffused with meaning, with no external dependencies and great to hold on-chain.
And beyond the art JPGs, I think that NFTs can do many more things, but this is on me to "show, not tell"
21/ I want to circle back to BTC because it is the easiest to reason about.
When people explained to me time and time again that it was a ponzi, I had a simple explanation of why it is not.
21/ BTC lets you do some things better than the existing system. "be sovereign over your money" or "send money to anyone on the planet within minutes" or "maintain an insurance policy against the existing financial system"
22/ I could not tell you how much value this had, but I knew it was not zero.
In fact, the value went up the more people used it, the bigger the network was, the more people you could transact with, the more resilient it was to government censorship.
These are the economics of a network system, not of a ponzi.
23/ If you take this away, if you stop building a network but instead just, at the extreme, just sell everyone shares of the ETF, well there is no network, there is no incremental network value being generated by the next buyer.
24/ In this model, BTC becomes more ponzi-like.
If a new participant does not make the network stronger by joining, they are not adding value, therefore there is a fixed pie and it is just value transfer to an existing holder.
25/ Again, take it to the extreme other direction -> assume we managed to move the whole economy to decentralized rails.
I think that world would be better, it would make better decisions, it would take advantage of the wisdom of crowds, there would be more transparency, less rent-seeking and the aggregate value of the world goes up because it is more productive.
Some % of the improved value of the world will get captured by the early participants to the network (which is normal and fair) but some % will be captured by everyone (as a late participant or consumer).
26/ But if we don't make the world better, if the world is exactly what it is, but also we play with a pet rock, this will not happen and, well, eventually playing with pet rocks gets very boring
27/ So what to do?
The same things you always should do:
a/ push yourself, and by extension, the world an inch, a foot, a mile down the pathway of decentralization.
many ways to do this, it is a journey, start today.
b/ remember, you, yes, you in the mirror have no business trading perps or day-trading stupid coins.
you are bad at it and your future self will be mad at your current self.
28/ If you must do it, carve out a budget and test how great you are across the cycle with your budget (1%, 5%, 10%, 20% of your portfolio, not all of it)
I am of course a dinosaur, but my total portfolio % of "putting money into stupid coins I have been FOMOed into it" is less than 1%. It has gone about as well as you might expect.
29/ Other than that, own some BTC, some ETH, some NFTs (good ones, that you like) in a self-custodial wallet, a small number of your favorite alts if you must.
And keep your job. Earn money, don't try to be a pro crypto trader, this is an imaginary job that only cobie and like 5 other people are qualified for.
I have always worked, every single day of my adult life. You should too.
30/ Crypto is a bad way to get rich quick, but a decent way to get rich slowly. In any case, you should have some stake in the decentralized world, in the digital world.
31/ I think in the end, "it" will be OK but "it" it not everything, it is not most things. As it always was, most coins will go to zero, most NFTs will go to zero. These are the rules of the game.
32/ Most of you are young. You have time, you have time into the ASI world, you have the greatest gift and wealth of all. You will be ok.
33/ Don't mope. It does not help anything. If you are bummed out, sad about your outcomes, there is only one sure thing that helps.
Get back to working.
34/ Even if you are young, life is short, your life is the important thing, money is just a game, just a tool, just an information system.
Don't anchor to your wealth, don't anchor to your ATH, it is not real, my ATH wealth has gone down 90% multiple times. Note it and just keep going.
If you are healthy, in a decent country, in a half-decent economic situation, you are better off than almost anyone who has ever lived
35/ If you have an opinion (even a dumb one) about Monad or Grifters, you are in the 0.001% most forward thinking people in the world.
Did you make a "mistake"?
Who cares, everyone makes mistakes - keep going, keep trying, keep making mistakes, eventually you will find your way, you will get a win.
This is how it goes.
36/ use a hardware wallet and even better a SAFE
37/ and to close again with the most important thing. decentralization is the only thing that matters.
if you go in that direction, if we go in that direction, in the end, it will be ok.
i have no doubt about this, i have never had any doubts about this, it matters so much more than you think it does.
/the end
When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is.
I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k.
If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD.
If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax.
While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage.
In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didn’t have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live.
I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit.
Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. It’s easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious.
The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower.
In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course that’s what successful folks did.
In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk — have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups.
Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesn’t want to hear about “getting rich in a decade” though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.
ETH was *never* revolutionary because it generated fee income or burned supply. these things weren’t new to ETH, and equities did that with dividends and stock buybacks long ago, and they did it better
ETH was and is revolutionary for its ability to be a permissionless, censorship-resistant asset which is natively programmable, making it the world’s best natively programmable store of value asset with minimal trust assumptions
the first programmable SoV which ever mattered. the birthplace and core asset of DeFi. one which is meaningfully distributed with the deepest liquidity in the world. powerful, emergent value propositions
all narratives layered on since have been a distraction from this incredible, core value prop
go back to ETH’s roots
This is a post to all the Cosmos builders.
First off, you are complete badasses for believing in the Cosmos vision. You have true grit to still be here.
Cosmos has been the most ambitious and challenging experiment in crypto. We are building the only credible Internet of Blockchains. We are actually decentralized. We have the widest-used blockchain stack in the industry, and building your own blockchain is extremely hard.
Given where the market is, and the reality of available liquidity, a lot of teams in Cosmos (like everywhere) are second guessing themselves. VCs are not deploying much, anywhere. There is a flight to quality, and to assets with fundamentals. A lot of teams are thinking of how to approach, and whether to bet on, the new era of Cosmos.
I want to personally say, we are changing everything about the ecosystem behind the scenes. In our new position, we are radically changing how we fund, support, and incubate teams. We are bringing in external investment, and supporting teams in-house. We are ravenous, and we are deeply committed. And we will fight for you, and with you, if you join us.
We cannot lift all boats. There are so many teams we will not be able to support, that probably deserve it. But we are committed to making the best teams in Cosmos shine and become massively successful.
Our strategy has been to focus on the success of the Cosmos Hub as the benchmark for the ecosystem. We want to build it into an incredible platform that onboards new users, provides magical services to app chains, and become the best place for new products to grow up. This will give users and investors a clear entry point, and give us the ability to grow more chains in the ecosystem. Everything we do, we do to grow the Internet of Blockchains.
If you are in Cosmos, this is the time to take off the gloves. This is the time to fight for your product & community, and to make a fuck ton of noise. This is the time to get down to fundamentals, accelerate what's working, and cut everything - and anyone - else. A simple product that does one thing 100% well is infinitely more valuable than doing 10 things at 80%. Focus on simplifying your onboarding experience, your branding, your best feature.
And if you are a founder, be a goddamn founder - do not blame your ecosystem. Missing liquidity? Go market and take it from Ethereum. Missing users? Take a flight, close Twitter, and market your product door-to-door. There is an entire world to be onboarded to the decentralized internet, and we need to work with real people to build something they want to use. No one is stopping you from growing - try different things, be bold. Crypto is called the Wild West for a reason.
If you want new energy, this is the time to leverage ATOM and its community - one of the largest and oldest communities in crypto - to supercharge your application and adoption. Speaking for the ATOM community, we are incredibly excited to use and try new things.
We will be your ally, and you will not have to build this alone. Cosmos has been fragmented for a long time, but as we come together - and if we rally around the Hub - we are unstoppable. Liquidity, users, and attention is attracted to unity, and this is our chance to stop infighting, bite our lip, and align. We've already learned the lessons that Ethereum, Solana, and everyone else are just learning now with their fracturing ecosystems. If we can do this, we can level up and execute a turnaround people will remember for decades.
In the coming months, we will launch the first-ever permissionless VM and ecosystem on the Cosmos Hub. We will bring liquidity, and incentives. It will be deeply integrated with ATOM. We will incubate and launch incredible new applications that use Eureka to natively distribute to users and capital on every ecosystem. And we will support any application built on the Hub to then become their own L1 application. It's time to build a new Cosmos.
We will use the Hub to unleash the builders, and we would love you to be one.
Mag
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Please note: This timeline is indicative and subject to change.
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