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[Deji @dejixyz]

On today’s episode of The Interview, our guest is @lmc_security, Founder of @kash_bot - a pretty unique Prediction Market platform and a highly anticipated Launch.

Keep reading to hear what Lucas has to say!

Hello Lucas, how are you doing today?

Hey Deji! I’m very excited and hungry to eat the world, with the landscape of prediction markets changing every day. Slightly recovering from a light fall from a horse but all good otherwise!

How’d you get into Crypto and what was the initial attraction to Prediction Markets?

I got intro crypto back in 2014, creating one of the first bitcoin mining pools in Southern Europe with some school friends. The main reason was intellectual curiosity to be fully honest, as the Bitcoin was making the right sort of noise I am always in the lookout for.

By then, I was already an “experimental black-hat hacker”, rather well-versed in mathematics, cryptography, electronics, AI and, of course, cybersecurity - and it played beautifully with my skill set.
Shortly thereafter, I became a smart contract security researcher, auditing tier-one protocols for several years early on, before moving to the hedge fund world in the field of MEV, algorithmic trading and high-frequency trading.

It was in the intersection of MEV and capital markets, together with the growing fear / concern of how AI was shaping culture and even the truth, that I realized that prediction markets were actually the “proof-of-stake or proof-of-work” of the blockchain when seeking to get closer to the truth. Then, the rest was history. I got as deep as the rabbit hole goes in this space, found several zero-to-ones that the large incumbents could not target and doubled down on those with an extraordinary team. This is what today is https://t.co/M2k7PlZ7mk

For anyone who doesn’t understand PMs, how’d you explain it to them?

It is a social layer of truth, a mechanism that enables users to leverage their own opinions / knowledge / skill about the occurrence of a future event, and get rewarded for it.

How’d you describe the current state of PMs and where do you think it’s heading in the short & long term?

Similar to Ethereum back in 2016, where PMF has already been proven, mainly driven by a couple of large events. Prediction Markets are still nascent, and most people have not yet realized the scope and size of this new financial asset class.

Short-term they are focusing on short-tail and global events, and long-term we will see how these fully embedded in people’s lives.

Do you think Prediction Markets are for absolutely everybody or for a specific sub-group?

Today, a subgroup, clearly. Tomorrow, absolutely everybody, Kash will ensure that happens.

You’re building Kash Bot, can you tell us what Kash is about?

https://t.co/M2k7PlZ7mk is a social-native, permissionless prediction market protocol that enables users to participate in prediction markets directly from their social media feed. For the first time, you can effortless discover, predict and even create new markets.

At Kash, we are solving three of the biggest problems in the prediction market space, specially the more you differentiate yourself from the larger incumbents: liquidity bootstrapping, distribution and prediction markets creation and resolution.

How’d you say Kash is approaching PMs in a different way to other platforms?

Mainly 5 things,

Distribution ⇨ We fully distribute on social media and enable users to participate directly from their feed, with AI taking care of the rest

Liquidity ⇨ I have created the first social-native bonding curve AMM hybrid which solves the initial liquidity bootstrapping challenge in PMM and enables native leverage for users.

Market Creation ⇨ AI-driven market creation or AI-assisted for user-proposed, permissionless markets.

1/x

[Deji @dejixyz]

Was reading a Research paper from 2012 on Economic Forecasting based on Prediction Markets earlier today,

And it’s genuinely incredible to see some of the concepts discussed playing out in real time now and it’s mainly due to the widespread development and adoption of platforms like @Polymarket + much more.

It is not news, and neither is it new that a mechanism for estimating event probabilities involve aggregating information from a crowd. In fact, there are multiple examples of this use case such as Polling.

But a noteworthy concept from the paper describes 3 key attributes that Prediction Markets specifically offer that other similar forms of information pooling such as Polling can only offer 1 or 2 of but not all 3.

Info Aggregation ⇨ Ofc, any market aggregation mechanism should be able to do this 🫣

Incentivization ⇨ Prediction Markets have the advantage of being able to offer a direct path to rewards, on top of aggregating this info. Again, using Polling as an example - Participants don’t particularly have a direct path to calculating rewards/Incentives if vote for a certain candidate, at least not on an individual level.

Usefulness Timeframe ⇨ With Prediction Markets, data is represented in a way that can used to trade more efficiently. Say - a market randomly had a Yes share spike, you can most probably assume activity such as insiders which could help inform you on how to re-allocate your capital or trade another market that’d have an impact with such result actually happening + multiple other usecase examples.

Multiple variables are required in activities based around Economic Forecasting, such that sourcing for a thesis for each of them becomes too stringent. This is where the Efficient Market Hypothesis relates with Prediction Markets.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis says Market prices fully reflect all available information, and PMs on the other hand reflect the aggregate belief of traders on future outcomes, based on available information. Ofc, you’d have to factor in limitations such as Low liquidity markets, regional biases, market manipulation etc, but overall - the point still kinda stands.

An added advantage is PMs find it super easy to continually incorporate new information, because as more traders find out more during research, they rethink/re-distribute their capital allocations.

Also, the fact that market manipulations in worthy/widespread/high-volume/interesting/important markets only have short term effects is also pretty incredible and I’m not talking out my ass here - there are multiple historical evidences of this, whereby election candidates attempted to re-direct crowd attention and the price spikes lasted for short periods, because well-informed traders take advantage of the asymmetry fast, leaving such manipulations to serve as exit liq.

So far, the most common mechanism through which Traders/participants of the PM ecosystem know and use is the Winner Take All system.

This system is such that, a Contract costs X cents and pays $1 iff event Y occurs.

I.e Will Bitcoin close above $120k by November, trading at 68c. The cost is 68c and you get paid $1 if the event truly happens. Again, this is the most common form of trading PMs.

Other mechanisms include,
⇨ Index Method
⇨ Spread Method

The Index method is such that, the contract pays x amount for the expected value E[y] of the outcome.

I.e, How many new jobs will the U.S. add in November 2025?

Suppose the contract rewards out $0.01 per 1,000 jobs and traders think 200,000 jobs will be added, the price settles near $2. If the 220k jobs end up being the real life value, you get $2.20. Long as you’re above a certain threshold number - you get 0.01 on the dollar per 1k jobs accurately guessed.

And for the Spread Method, It pays a fixed amount if the outcome exceeds a threshold, and nothing if it doesn’t.

Pretty cool how Prediction Markets are the wild wild west , yet still play crucial roles across basically every niche.

[Deji @dejixyz]

On today’s episode of The Interview, our guest is @lcnxyz - Founder of @sportstensor & @almanac_market which imo is a pretty unique use-case product being built around Polymarket & the general Prediction ecosystem.

Keep reading to hear what Lucian has to say!

How’d you get into Crypto and what was the initial attraction to Prediction Markets?

I got in to crypto back in 2017 when I bought my first Bitcoin on the exchange Bittrex for anyone who knew that era. From there I delved deeper into blockchain technology and went down the rabbit hole of defi summer by 2021; quickly realizing how traditional finance is inefficient and questionable at best.

Prediction markets popped up on my radar during the 2024 elections when Polymarket probabilities were all over media outlets. I didn’t actually start trading on Polymarket until the end of 2024 when I placed trades using Sportstensor intelligence and surprisingly found the odds to be better than traditional sportsbooks. I’ve been trading sports markets exclusively on Polymarket since.

For anyone who doesn’t understand PMs, how’d you explain it to them?

It depends on the audience’s understanding of fundamental market dynamics but I usually say it’s a speculation market where you can bet on the outcome of an event. I then use an example of two audience members playing against eachother in basketball and ask the audience to bet on who would win.

For those who want a deeper explanation, I describe prediction markets as a decentralized intelligence network; where people are incentivized to trade in markets where they have information or edge. Using the same basketball example, I’d then ask whether the audience would bet more or less if they had more information that pertains to the chance of either of the players winning.

How’d you describe the current state of PMs and where do you think it’s heading towards, say over the next 12 months?

It’s moving at break-neck speed! And it’s invigorating. Teams and builders experimenting with derivatives, defi, leverage, indicies, ai etc! It’s really great to see and indicative of how much the space will have matured in just 12 months.

All the problems we hear about today such as liquidity or distribution will be a thing of the past as more infrastructure and primitives are built to attract users and traders. I believe it’s the most exciting time to be building in the space akin to the feeling I got during the start of defi summer in 2021.

Moving on to Sportstensor, can you share more about what Sportstensor is building?

Yeah of course! @sportstensor is a subnetwork built on the Bittensor blockchain where we incentivise participants (called miners) to build machine learning and ai models to predict the outcome of sports games. It’s a Darwinian environment where your model is not only trying to beat the market but you are also always competing with other miners for the top spot, more rewards and to avoid getting eliminated.

Some consider this quite experimental but we feel it in our bones that ai and machine intelligence will outperform humans in pattern recognition and exploiting line inefficiencies in the long run. Despite how dystopian that sounds, ai should be used in prediction markets as they are in any other industry — a tool to aid the user in achieving something they normally wouldn’t be able to do without it.

We’ve gone ahead and built @almanac_market on top of Polymarket as a front-end to Sportstensor, using the familiar UI/UX to onboard prediction market native traders to also compete in what you can call an endless trading competition with hundreds of thousands of dollars up for grabs in rewards.