Before Sam Altman became the face of AI, he asked Mark Zuckerberg about one of the hardest decisions he faced while building Facebook.
Zuckerberg was 22 when Yahoo offered $1 billion to buy the company. It had 10 million users, mostly students. Even he couldn’t know whether it would grow far beyond that.
He and co-founder Dustin Moskovitz believed it could connect many more people, so they turned down the offer. But others at Facebook saw a billion-dollar sale after just two years as an extraordinary outcome.
Zuckerberg later admitted something uncomfortable to Altman: he hadn’t clearly explained his ambition to the people building the company with him.
Saying no to Yahoo wasn’t the painful part. Watching them leave was. Within about a year, his entire management team was gone.
Soon after the offer, Facebook launched News Feed and opened registration beyond schools. The growth helped vindicate his decision. But when he made it, he was asking his team to believe in a future he hadn’t fully explained.
The article below explores decisions like this one, before hindsight makes the answer look easy.
Before Sam Altman became the face of AI, he asked Mark Zuckerberg about one of the hardest decisions he faced while building Facebook.
Zuckerberg was 22 when Yahoo offered $1 billion to buy the company. It had 10 million users, mostly students. Even he couldn’t know whether it would grow far beyond that.
He and co-founder Dustin Moskovitz believed it could connect many more people, so they turned down the offer. But others at Facebook saw a billion-dollar sale after just two years as an extraordinary outcome.
Zuckerberg later admitted something uncomfortable to Altman: he hadn’t clearly explained his ambition to the people building the company with him.
Saying no to Yahoo wasn’t the painful part. Watching them leave was. Within about a year, his entire management team was gone.
Soon after the offer, Facebook launched News Feed and opened registration beyond schools. The growth helped vindicate his decision. But when he made it, he was asking his team to believe in a future he hadn’t fully explained.
The article below explores decisions like this one, before hindsight makes the answer look easy.
@iamStatsNerd Probably not and that's why his account is interesting he admits the result became clear quickly but it wasn't clear when he made the call
Ray Dalio already had everything.
He had built his own investment firm, managed other people's money and was testifying before Congress as an economic expert.
Then he lost it all.
In 1982, Dalio became convinced that a massive debt crisis was coming. When Mexico defaulted, it looked like he had called it perfectly. He went on television, testified before Congress and became confident enough to put his money behind the prediction.
Then the exact opposite happened. Instead of collapsing, the stock market took off. Dalio lost his money, lost his clients' money and had to fire every employee at Bridgewater. Eventually, there was nobody left but him.
Things got so bad that Dalio, with a wife and two young children at home, couldn't comfortably cover his family's bills. The man who had just been explaining the economy to Congress had to go to his father and borrow $4,000. His father saved him.
There’s also an uncomfortable question in Dalio’s story. How many people who “made it on their own” only survived long enough to make it because someone was there to catch them at their lowest point?
Dalio eventually rebuilt Bridgewater into one of the most successful hedge funds in the world, but he didn't get through the worst moment alone. When everything collapsed, his family was still there and his father gave him the $4,000 he needed to keep going.
Sometimes the biggest falls don't finish you. With the right people around you, they become the reason you come back stronger.
Dalio's story is also a reminder that some of the most useful lessons come from being catastrophically wrong, not from getting everything right.
The article below breaks down more rules for making better decisions when things don't go according to plan ↓
Ray Dalio already had everything.
He had built his own investment firm, managed other people's money and was testifying before Congress as an economic expert.
Then he lost it all.
In 1982, Dalio became convinced that a massive debt crisis was coming. When Mexico defaulted, it looked like he had called it perfectly. He went on television, testified before Congress and became confident enough to put his money behind the prediction.
Then the exact opposite happened. Instead of collapsing, the stock market took off. Dalio lost his money, lost his clients' money and had to fire every employee at Bridgewater. Eventually, there was nobody left but him.
Things got so bad that Dalio, with a wife and two young children at home, couldn't comfortably cover his family's bills. The man who had just been explaining the economy to Congress had to go to his father and borrow $4,000. His father saved him.
There’s also an uncomfortable question in Dalio’s story. How many people who “made it on their own” only survived long enough to make it because someone was there to catch them at their lowest point?
Dalio eventually rebuilt Bridgewater into one of the most successful hedge funds in the world, but he didn't get through the worst moment alone. When everything collapsed, his family was still there and his father gave him the $4,000 he needed to keep going.
Sometimes the biggest falls don't finish you. With the right people around you, they become the reason you come back stronger.
Dalio's story is also a reminder that some of the most useful lessons come from being catastrophically wrong, not from getting everything right.
The article below breaks down more rules for making better decisions when things don't go according to plan ↓