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@austin_way It's called timeguessr

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@GaetenD It would feel riskier now with Don jr on the board

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@mattyglesias Remember they are still using Claude

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@Polymarket needs to seriously consider implementing some kind of "no-deaths" rule similar to Kalshi. Although many people have been mocking the recent outcome on Kalshi, it is not that hard to imagine someone putting a million dollars on, say, Kevin Warsh not becoming the next FED chair - finding out where he lives and shooting him. Even if it is very unlikely to happen in any one market, I think it is a pretty likely scenario to happen some time in the next 10 years given the diversity of markets and it will be a REALLY bad scenario.

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@Polymarket needs to seriously consider implementing some kind of "no-deaths" rule similar to Kalshi. Although many people have been mocking the recent outcome on Kalshi, it is not that hard to imagine someone putting a million dollars on, say, Kevin Warsh not becoming the next FED chair - finding out where he lives and shooting him. Even if it is very unlikely to happen in any one market, I think it is a pretty likely scenario to happen some time in the next 10 years given the diversity of markets and it will be a REALLY bad scenario.

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@PredMTrader @DustinGouker @GaetenD you new guys dont know how delusional it can get

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@TradeandMoney There is already a new fed confirmation market

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@bernardbulletin I was on talarico but I have flipped to crocket at 9c, a little too good of a price

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@SemioticRivalry I was on khamenei surviving cause I thought we was smart enough to be 300 ft underground with food and water for a year. FML

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@PredMTrader @GaetenD I don't think he even said it in his speech at the Bitcoin conference

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@captgouda24 The biggest distortion in pricing accuracy is from time value. Not sure how you would account for that but basically market can diverge from sharp bettor consensus by a little less than 1pp per month.

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@GaetenD which list is endorsing Kamala on

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@GaetenD insider trading on the super bowl is pretty common too

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@adamjohnsonCHI @Polymarket This one has real value to society though as a "fact check" on a big fake news trend

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@argzax @GaetenD I picked up some "no nom by feb 28" onpoly

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@Ragnarok_1er @GaetenD I dont know but it seems likely

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@HiveLiveHQ @skupor I dont understand why poly is still using the same janky rules from predictit 2020

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@IsaacDovere "I only had one cd", suggests a house rep?

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@Ragnarok_1er @GaetenD Did you not hear about semi?

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@HiveLiveHQ @GaetenD @PredMTrader hard to watch with that guys mic not working