guerrilla1

Without training, they lacked knowledge.
Without knowledge, they lacked confidence.
Without confidence, they lacked victory.

Discretionary gambler

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@mlmabc Disgusting

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@lukecannon727 lol

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@abrahamforsaken

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@BarakRavid 😂😂😂

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@ThinkingUSD It's nothing, I'm all in

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@BittexXBT 6 7 defense next

[Alpha_Ex_LLC @Alpha_Ex_LLC]

TLDR: history tells us that the SK Hynix leveraged ETF may end in tears for long holders. Be careful.
With respect to the the leveraged ETF on SK Hynix, there may be something akin to the price/vol spiral that occurred in $MSTR 2x ETFs back in Nov'24, $MSTU, $MSTX
Below, a 23 min podcast I did on this dynamic at that time.
SK Hynix now has a market cap of 1T USD. The 2x ETF has a market cap of 10bln USD. That's nearly double the market cap that the two referenced Bitcoin lev ETFs had at peak in late Nov'24.
Both products rely on swap counterparties to gain the necessary leverage. In late 2024, it was reported that counterparties to the MSTR and MSTU products were reducing how much leverage they'd extend. It reportedly forced the ETF providers into the options market. This created inelastic demand for options at any price to get the needed delta exposure. Implied vol surged, as I covered in the podcast.
Let's look at some option market dynamics in SK Hynix that trade out of South Korea. Note, the ETF trades in Hong Kong. The first chart is call option volume. The second (top right) is a snapshot of open interest for June 11 expiries. Look at the circled strikes. Below that, tying those open interest levels to recent volume.
Lastly, the recent surge in implied vol on one of those options.
The next pic below is with the help of Claude who read the leveraged ETF prospectus with attention to the hedging protocol. They can utilize options up to 25% of NAV...and well, it seems they may have, according to what they report, also shown below.
If the late 2024 MSTR spiral can inform us about this episode - and I think it does - the SK Hynix 2x ETF provider has played a meaningful role in contributing to the massive realized vol on up days in SK Hynix and has moved the vol market considerably as well.
Last chart shows deviations from NAV. It gets really sloppy when you have to into the options market and put up prints of 100k. You are forcing the seller to make a price on convexity risk that is the equiv of flood insurance in a flood zone. Both prices are going to be crazy high.
The odds of a leveraged ETF on a 100 vol asset succeeding are incredibly low.
And zooming out, if some part of the market's run is simply a wealth effect reinforcing loop, this could reverse some of that quickly. Hard not to think the gains in all of these stocks, not just SK Hynix, are part of the large chip stack being risked in an increasingly loose poker gain.

https://t.co/p9NRNUXiif

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@Evan_ss6 Fuck...

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@CRUDEOIL231 Lmaooo all my homies hate Barak Ravid

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@ryzzqq "wherever i go, rape is already there"

[jintao.positivity.love,truth @hellojintao]

BREAKING: Jeffrey Epstein (@epsteinsintern ) has signed with RoboStrategy as an Independent Director

[Abdul @0x_Abdul]

imagine being a commodities desk trader watching 9 fig gold shorts hit the tape and scrambling to figure out if a central bank is dumping reserves

only to realize that X user Mk4_lul fat-fingered a trade on hyperliquid

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@BarakRavid @axios Been saying the same for over a month, lol

[guerrilla1 @XDPLAYER19]

@chameleon_jeff @HyperliquidPC Hyperliquid

[jeff.hl @chameleon_jeff]

I spent the past few days in Washington with @hyperliquidpc meeting with policymakers during the historic advancement of the Clarity Act. We discussed Hyperliquid, the benefits that it offers to American consumers, and the regulatory path to bring onchain derivatives markets into the United States.

Some conversations were technical with an impressive baseline understanding of Hyperliquid. Discussions included how onchain trading is a financial innovation that has clear global user demand. Other conversations focused more on a first principles introduction to defi and the promise of onchain markets. It was encouraging to see bipartisan support for thoughtful regulation of crypto. I look forward to continuing discussions in DC and working hard to make American access to Hyperliquid a reality.

[Hyperliquid Policy Center @HyperliquidPC]

Today, Bloomberg reported on certain incumbent traditional exchanges raising concerns about the integrity and impact of markets for perpetual derivatives on Hyperliquid.

These concerns are unfounded.

Hyperliquid offers enhanced market transparency, publishing a complete onchain record of every transaction in real time, making it a uniquely hostile environment for insider trading or price manipulation. Hyperliquid’s transparency serves as a strong deterrent for misconduct and facilitates surveillance, detection, and investigation by regulators and law enforcement.

Hyperliquid also offers 24/7 trading, an innovation that substantially increases market efficiency. Prices move whether traditional exchanges are open or not. Continuous trading eliminates gaps and discontinuities between legacy market hours, improving price discovery for all participants.

Bloomberg correctly reports that U.S. law is not currently tailored for derivatives markets on public blockchains like Hyperliquid. We look forward to continuing our work with policymakers in Washington to bring onchain markets inside the regulatory perimeter.