Summer is going to hurt
> Equities are draining all liquidity
> Saylor is selling btc
> Mid-terms approaching = risk off
> ETF flows negative (see point 1)
> No end to the Iran war in sight
> Mega IPO's will only worsen liquidity
bitcoin:native
Summer is going to hurt
> Equities are draining all liquidity
> Saylor is selling btc
> Mid-terms approaching = risk off
> ETF flows negative (see point 1)
> No end to the Iran war in sight
> Mega IPO's will only worsen liquidity
bitcoin:native
SPX top is near
$3.5T in IPOs across 3 months
SpaceX / OpenAI / Anthropic
Liquidity black holes
Exactly how the dot-com era topped
Invest $10k at the top in 2000
13 years later you just break even
And inflation already ate 50% of it
Imagine investing in the S&P 500 in 2000
You hold for 13 years
By 2013, you have EXACTLY the same balance
Meanwhile, inflation ate 50% of the value your money had
Now ask yourself:
What if this happens again?
BTC never bottomed in less than 360 days
Bear 2013: Bottom in 426 days
Bear 2017: Bottom in 363 days
Bear 2021: Bottom in 376 days
Bear 2025: 190 days in (~52%)
Calling the bottom here is arguing against 13 years of data
SPX 2022 vs 2026
Same fractal is repeating
2022:
Russia → Ukraine war, Oil +70%, SPX -28%
2026:
U.S. → Iran war, Oil +70%, SPX -(In progress...)%
We are in extremely dangerous territory
Imagine investing in the S&P 500 in 2000
You hold for 13 years
By 2013, you have EXACTLY the same balance
Meanwhile, inflation ate 50% of the value your money had
Now ask yourself:
What if this happens again?
SPX 2022 vs 2026
Same fractal is repeating
2022:
Russia → Ukraine war, Oil +70%, SPX -28%
2026:
U.S. → Iran war, Oil +70%, SPX -(In progress...)%
We are in extremely dangerous territory
You can call it a conspiracy, but...
From 2017 high to 2021 high: 1430 days
From 2021 high to 2025 high: 1431 days
From 2017 high to bottom: 365 days
From 2021 high to bottom: 365 days
New cycle bottom: in 205 days
New cycle high: in 1276 days
Whether you like it or not, we still follow the $BTC 4-year cycle
$BTC
Repeating the textbook bearish pattern
Did the same thing 3 months ago
Did the same thing during the war in 2022
Warned you two weeks ago this was coming
We will see $BTC below 60k in April
🚨 It's happening again
$BTC reacts to war the exact same way
Russia/Ukraine = Iran/United States
Day 1: Panic nuke (✔)
Weeks 1-3: Expansion (In progress)
Month 2: The actual nuke (Loading...)
We might be ahead of schedule...