exponentialdave

Growth stock investor/blogger - Not advice

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

@chowzam I should do a quick update as there’s been plenty of changes. Some things I don’t own anymore as well as some new adds. But yeah, most core holdings are still there $APP $IREN $NBIS etc

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

Feels like the markets are screaming at us to start trimming our stratospheric holdings… and yet. I have not

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

@hksfho It would appear that way, but actually IREN went down a lot since my last update in November and APP has risen. I didn’t add any APP, and I didn’t sell any IREN.

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

2025 Portfolio: +33%
Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +250%

Holdings:
APP 30%
IREN 10%
NBIS 10%
NVDA 9%
ALAB 9%
AXON 7%
MELI 6%
RDDT 5%
RBRK 4%
CRDO 4%
<= 3% : CASH, WYFI, CRWV, PGY, HIVE

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

NVDA just told you the depreciation debate is irrelevant and nobody’s repricing.

Burry closed his fund after shorting NVDA, claiming companies overstate GPU useful life at 2-3 years. The market debates whether depreciation should be 3, 5, or 7 years. AWS just cut AI hardware depreciation from 6 years back to 5.

Then NVDA drops this in their earnings transcript: A100 GPUs shipped in May 2020 are still running at full utilization in November 2025, powered by vastly improved software.

That statement just invalidated the entire depreciation debate.

Here’s what people are getting wrong. They’re modeling GPU economics like traditional data center hardware with fixed depreciation curves. CoreWeave uses 6-year depreciation cycles. Microsoft and Alphabet extended server equipment to 6 years. Everyone’s arguing about the right number.

But NVDA just revealed the actual dynamic. The value isn’t depreciating on a fixed schedule. Software improvements are extending hardware utility faster than the hardware ages. CUDA optimizations, framework updates, and model efficiency gains mean a 2020 chip running 2025 software delivers more economic value than a 2020 chip running 2020 software.

Think about what “full utilization” means for data center economics. These aren’t spare chips sitting idle. They’re generating revenue at capacity 5.5 years after purchase. The software moat keeps expanding, which keeps old hardware economically viable.

This completely inverts the depreciation model everyone’s fighting about. The question isn’t “when does the hardware become obsolete?” The question is “how fast can software improvements extend hardware utility?”

A100 resale prices saw appreciation in early 2024 during H100 supply constraints, proving the market values backward compatibility and software leverage over raw specs.

The competitive dynamic here is brutal. NVDA controls the entire software stack. Every CUDA improvement, every framework optimization, every model efficiency gain extends the life of every GPU they’ve ever sold. Competitors need to match not just the current generation, but the accumulated value of 15 years of software development.

Burry bet on hardware obsolescence. NVDA just showed him software determines economic life, not silicon generations.

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

@FintechBobby Perhaps, could also just be momentum traders selling who were hoping for some crazy price action after the earnings report

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

A little bit funny to see $IREN, one of my biggest holdings, DOWN today after reporting an absolute blockbuster earnings yesterday.

Says a lot about the state of the market right now, and not very much at all about Iren, who will be more than 10x'ing their revenue next year.

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

To take this a step further, $IREN is now down 9% and trading for LESS than it was *before* the microsoft deal! Talk about irrational markets... I have a huge Iren position already and I'm considering adding here, or converting some shares to options.

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

I'm very aware of the stock price run up, and because this is Twitter, people will say "All that was already priced in".

But actually... all that was certainly not priced in. Who could have known that they're guiding for $3.4 billion of revenue next year?

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

Portfolio +56% YTD
Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +312%
Holdings:
APP 24%
IREN 19%
NBIS 12%
NVDA 8%
AXON 7%
ALAB 7%
MELI 6%
RDDT 4%
<= 3% : WYFI, CRWV, PGY, CRDO, HIVE, RBRK

[𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 @Agrippa_Inv]

$IREN signing a $9.7b cloud contract with $MSFT is a thesis-defining moment for shareholders

For the last couple of years, doubters have argued that $IREN is just another $BTC miner or, in recent months, that they can’t compete with the likes of $NBIS or $CRWV because they lack "software orchestration".

Well, it turns out that all of these doubts were severely mis-guided.

Investors who did extensive research and analysis of the AI sector understood that it was always just a question of time — not merely because $IREN "has the power", but because they have world-class engineers and a one-of-a-kind CTO in Denis Skrinnikoff.

Combine that with excellent leadership at the top & this was a forgone conclusion.

Now keep in mind, this multibillion $ deal — which, on the surface, appears to have a very strong ROIC profile — barely encompasses 300 MW (gross) of $IREN's ~3 GW power portfolio.

There will be many more deals, whether in hyperscale cloud contracts or in the form of high-yielding “premium” colocation partnerships.

This is truly just the beginning...

Congrats @danroberts0101 & Team. Couldn’t be prouder as a shareholder today! 👏🎉

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

Love when my tweets age well! $IREN 🚀 🚀

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

I was wondering why some of my friends were buying stock in a bitcoin miner.

Then I saw its revenues are up 230% YoY in its most recent quarter. Ok, I'm interested, but it's still just a bitcoin miner.

If I wanted more BTC exposure, I'd just buy bitcoin.

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

@hksfho Yes a small trim there

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

Portfolio +61% YTD
Cumulative Performance since 1/1/2020: +314%

APP 23%
IREN 15%
NBIS 14%
AXON 8%
ALAB 8%
NVDA 8%
MELI 5%
RDDT 4%
RBRK 4%
3% or less: WYFI, HIMS, CRWV, PGY, CRDO, HIVE

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

@FinallyFoolin Very similar story for me in both $NVDA and $IREN.

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

I should give @GIMastery a finder’s fee for his work on $IREN.

Great job on that one!

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

Adding in February at the beginning of the Applovin short report nonsense ended up being a great decision.

Similar theme today - probably a buying opportunity but at the end of the day no one really knows until the probe is complete

Long $APP

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

$APP short reports are just making claims - no proof of anything (yet).

The company has already swiftly and forcefully pushed back against the claims.

I don't know everything - the claims could be true!

But for now, it's probably BS. I added to my already large position.

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

I think people forget how bad 2020/2021 was lol

$OKLO needs to 3-5x FROM HERE for it to be like 2021

2021 had 0 revenue companies like:

$LCID - $90B
$RVIN - $100B+ valuation during IPO(larger than ford at the time)
$NKLA - $30B ending up being a scam
$FSR (Fisker) - billions with 0 products

And that’s just a few names off the top of my head. Plenty of other.

THEN you had everyone and I mean everyone talking about stocks.

“What should I buy”
“How do I get rich”

Every friend I had was now an “options pro”.

THEN you had NFTs, selling for millions of dollars.

THEN you had $100Bs in Covid stimulus checks.

THEN you had FFR at near 0%.

This is NOT 2021. I’m not saying it’s not a local top but any comparison to 20/21’ is based on their own FOMO IMO.

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

@StockMarketNerd Don’t be shy Brad! Name them

[exponentialdave @xponentialdave]

Solid take got me from curiosity to opening a tiny starter position

[Misunderstood Multibaggers @meeijer]

An investment thesis on $WYFI:

Comparable to $NBIS, but profitable and more attractively valued.

This is the first part of my series, Misunderstood Baggers.