RichardT

If I cannot
Bring you comfort
Then at least I'll bring you hope.

[RichardT @xthread]

Are you treating your Fermi problems as Engineering problems?

[RichardT @xthread]

Something that is not about Israel..

[Jay Parsons @jayparsons]

Here's, for me, the biggest surprise turn of the U.S. apartment sector in 2023:

Class B apartments have been more impacted by supply than even Class A. In high-supply submarkets, Class B rents are down more than 2x Class A. Yet in no-supply submarkets, they're equals.

I was wrong on this one. I thought (and posted here) that Class B would be somewhat insulated from supply given the ~27% discount relative to new construction rents. As I pointed out back then: I believed in the long-term "filtering" effect. I just didn't think it would happen this fast. And it's important to note this is ONLY happening in areas with lots and lots of supply.

Why is that? Been digging into this a lot in recent weeks, and here's what I think is happening:

1) In high-supplied submarkets, we've seen rapid rent compression between new construction and Class B thanks to concessions and rent cuts... down to a median of 11%. That's a more manageable number to spur move-ups from mid- and upper-income Class B renters into new lease-ups. (In low-supplied areas, the premium is more than 2x that.)

2) The median rent-to-income ratio in Class B is 23%. So for renters below the median, there's likely some pent-up demand for newer and nicer apartments... yet perhaps there wasn't enough new product previously, or those renters didn't see value there until now, with rent spreads compressing. (Remember: Renter incomes still must qualify at the non-concessed rent.)

3) The impact of move-ups is clear from looking at occupancy, and that's likely what is triggering Class B rent cuts. In those high-supplied submarkets, Class B occupancy is just 93.6%. Compare that to no-supply submarkets, where Class B occupancy tops the U.S. average at nearly 95.0%.

Implications?

For RENTERS, it's another sign the balance of power has shifted back to renters.

For OPERATORS, it's an unexpected twist that makes for a more challenging landscape.

And for POLICYMAKERS, it's a powerful sign that if you truly care about housing affordability and access, it starts by legalizing and approving A LOT more housing.

[Senator Scott Wiener @Scott_Wiener]

BIG HOUSING NEWS: @GavinNewsom has signed our 3 housing bills:

✅ Dramatically expanding housing streamlining — no discretion, no CEQA; takes effect in SF early 2024 (SB 423)

✅ Allowing churches, nonprofit colleges, etc, to build affordable housing on their land (SB 4)

… ⬇️

[Matt Haney @MattHaneySF]

Two of my bills that will make it easier to build housing in San Francisco and beyond were signed into law by Governor @GavinNewsom yesterday.

✅ AB 1114 will stop the "only in San Francisco" practice of allowing appeals to housing projects, including affordable housing, even AFTER they've received all their approvals. It is part of why SF is the most expensive and slowest place to build housing. That will end now.

✅ AB 1485 gives the power to the Attorney General, with the sponsorship of @RobBonta, to actually enforce housing law regardless of who files an appeal first and stop cities from flagrantly violating housing law and refusing new shelters, housing or treatment facilities in violation of the law.

Let's build more housing NOW and stop cities who want to refuse all multi family housing that our state desperately needs. No more inaction.

[The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent]

⚡️Media: UK minister says Ukraine has practically defeated Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine's recent attacks have led to the "functional defeat" of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, U.K. Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said on Oct. 3, according to Ukrainska Pravda.

[RichardT @xthread]

Shakey, shakey

[The Honest Broker @RogerPielkeJr]

New paper argues that degrowth doesn't save the climate but kills 10s of millions of people by 2100

Can we just stop with the degrowth nonsense?
https://t.co/HC0foWY0Oo

[James Medlock @jdcmedlock]

Such a wild chart. The bottom 50%:
• gained ~0 wealth between 1990 and 2010
• lost 3/4 of their wealth in the GFC
• Got back to 1990 levels of wealth by 2019
• Actually made sustained gains during the pandemic era

[RichardT @xthread]

@TheStudyofWar Always a sign that things are going well when someone decides that charging soldiers for the ammunition they use is a good idea..

[RichardT @xthread]

@bkmacd And Robert Moses smiled..

[Bart Fare Evaders @Bartfare]

(Audio) @SFBART Last Legacy Train
Final Announcement to Passengers
September 10, 2023, 8:50 PM
Richmond BART Station

[California YIMBY @cayimby]

[BILL ALERT] SB 423, which extends and expands SB 35's housing streamlining provisions, has passed out of the Assembly with bipartisan support! Learn about the bill here: https://t.co/YB9yiVJfaq

[RichardT @xthread]

@Noahpinion And a wee bit of self-interest, to boot.

[RichardT @xthread]

@rezendi Aw, man, I still need to get mine signed..

[RichardT @xthread]

This is why Solar / Wind is going to eat Coal's lunch. And NatGas. Nuclear Fission's odds aren't looking good, either.

[Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior]

“I hate to post this chart yet again, and I understand if you’re annoyed, but it might be the most important chart in the world” https://t.co/V96OkrQ9h1

[Armand Domalewski @ArmandDoma]

Steel produces about 11% of global C02 emissions. Few things make me as hopeful about fighting climate change as the rapid burst of zero carbon steel technology innovations

[RichardT @xthread]

@dmofengineering External single-sheet scanner for MacBook Pros. I didn't realize so many people were still using them.

[Sam Dumitriu @Sam_Dumitriu]

Is Britain getting a bad deal? @Ben_A_Hopkinson and I looked at 242 infrastructure projects across 14 different countries.

Our conclusion? It costs more to build new tram systems, railways, and roads in Britain than almost anywhere else in the world. 🧵

https://t.co/Di7JfWGQjC

[RichardT @xthread]

Dayam..

[Patrick McKenzie @patio11]

I rarely say “Wow that crypto situation was so much worse than I would have guessed” but did you read the Prime Trust bankruptcy filing? Crickey.

https://t.co/ZPmAr7vkPH

[RichardT @xthread]

Things that are good, a series.

[Evgen Vorobyov @vorobyov]

President Zelensky granted a "Legend of Ukraine" award to Fuminori Tsuchiko, a 75-year old Japanese volunteer living in #Kharkiv

Using his savings, Fuminori-san opened a charity café in Saltivka, Kharkiv's district most ravaged by russian attacks, to feed people in need for free