4D

[4D @xuewei4d]

@matthew_sigel you are right!

[Kevin Mak @kevin__mak]

https://t.co/PYcsux1tct

[Kevin Mak @kevin__mak]

https://t.co/WOcmXNaTFo

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.

"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left."

"Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination."

"Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets."

"If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit."

https://t.co/Xe8Vi38WiI

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research 人们总是喜欢听他们想听的，而不是去听他们不想听的哈哈

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research Jim 不是反指大王吗

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research 加息概率只有40%了
https://t.co/bT1AkesjFf

[投资TALK君 @TJ_Research]

我说美联储很鹰，最早9月份加息。
不少人拿第二天美股的反弹当所有市场解读
我说债市已定价9月份100%加息，有人说如果不加你道歉吗
没有人什么都懂，我也一直在学习，但不懂还不虚心学习且听不进和自己仓位不一样声音的这类人投资交易不可能长久和持续
马上又要第三季度财报，这么跌法给财报出空间了，和三月份一样，AI还没有被证伪

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research 加息概率只有40%了

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research 现在9月加息的概率只有50%了

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research 我觉得你说反了，是AMD不会像别的公司那样做账，比如MSFT

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research 那你也要研究一下为什么cds这么高呢

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research Never say never : 市场从来不会交易那些数据，公司本身，华尔街也都不会在乎。

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research Cisco在1999年的ROC也是34%哈哈

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research ROIC是所有历史投资的平均回报，WACC是下一块钱的rate，不大一样。未来的ROIC还会30%+吗？Datacenter的摊销都还没算上呢

[4D @xuewei4d]

@options_insight You know nothing about what dealers are doing

[4D @xuewei4d]

@Alpha_Ex_LLC if you long straddle and restrike on soxx recently, you should profit

[4D @xuewei4d]

@Alpha_Ex_LLC the realized vol is higher than iv since 6/9

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research 这合理吗？

[4D @xuewei4d]

@bcherny new claude bug: in the chat mode, I cannot "command + F" search for any other characters other than English words. Previously no problem.

[4D @xuewei4d]

@TJ_Research 你可以问下claude或者chatgpt，我已经帮你问过了。“每个月的概率分布已经是累积的”。