xway.sai

A committed decentralizer
A libertarian that believes in tech-maxizing
#Bitcoin #Crypto
short old world,long new structure

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@Wilsonchen1101 力量在汇集：
1-美元信用危机，会让加息/降息脱敏，结构在进一步变化。
2-Agent的Crypto支付
3-BTC一半以上的定价功能已经在机构
4-稳定币支付的故事还需要进一步发酵，但正在抢跑RMB/中国工业能力出海的支付网络，RMB顶部在接近
风云如果际会，就会波澜壮阔

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

传统工业：无限的劳��+无限的资源=卷到死
农业和能源：无限的劳动+有限的资源=新资产

如果把供应链的前后进一步压缩集成到一起，可能会出现一种新的“活资产”：
每一个机械臂的播种、采摘、处理/加工、配送、消费，都有实时的Iot数据，从播种/生产的最远端——到消费的最末端，AI/机器人全程获得数据，集成到一起，就是一个自动赚钱机。
组织起自动赚钱机的钱和运营，就是“活资产”管理，资产即服务。
谁组织/重构起来了，谁就是新时代的“数字领主”

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

美元的信用危机，��风轻拂一年多了，可能迎来一次冲击

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

政治已经成为当今投资最大的Alpha。
美国似乎正走在蒂尔主义的路上，不管结果如何，数字权力正在站上舞台。而东大，存在着政治上发生惊天巨变的必要性和驱动力，数字权力被传统权力压制产生了结构扭曲
https://t.co/jsGHjsMHXU

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

新资产的第一个特点：在结构上能“抗美元”，除了BTC和黄金之外，能源会凸显出来。
1-美元信用还在进一步削弱，美元体系下的一切金融资产都在美元体系内。币股的热闹是毒药，很可能自己才是那个矿。
2-科技停滞短期难以改变，数字中世纪，能源是少数的增量，资产类别也可以于独立于美元结构之外

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@Himalaya_bear1 直接说吧，就是走私，尤其是科技走私，未来10年的最大风口

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

民众的经济上，看日本，失去的30年。
国家竞争&宏观上，看冷战，初期苏联一度占据上风+美国股市强劲；进步主义下2个都是美国。
中长期，看W1W2，结构变化的开始。

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@BTCBruce1 从GPU/数据中心/AI的实际供应&使用来看，确实有左脚踩右脚螺旋升天的迹象。
但政治导致的结构性缺乏持续多久+跨国走私在中美竞争/合作的微妙平衡中走多远=值博率

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@BTCBruce1 GPU的生产并不短缺，是中美政策导致中国缺乏高端GPU。
数据中心的供应即使是美国也不缺，电力接��不够更多是政策影响；中国更不缺数据中心了。
内存实际情况不清楚。
是否值得下注反弹，决定因素是中美政策。
市场已经是政治在主导了

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@henghaer123 B300疯狂涨价，是果还是因？

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@pmddomingos 资本市场的军备竞赛已经在进行中。和互联网巨头由用户规模推动的估值增长不同，AI&机器人的万亿估值及增长，由中美对抗的军备竞赛2.0推动。如果持续，可能会深刻改变股市逻辑

[Balaji @balajis]

Should the global tech community continue investing in Malaysia?

Given recent events, I raise this question respectfully for the consideration of Prime Minister Yang Amat Berhormat Dato’ Seri Anwar bin Ibrahim (@anwaribrahim), for the people of Malaysia, and for our friends in the Malaysian tech community. The answer will be of interest to anyone in global tech that’s considering building, investing, or expanding in Malaysia, including executives at Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft, founders of tech unicorns like Coinbase and Solana, and investors at the world’s largest venture capital funds like a16z and Polychain.

As context, I am the former CTO of Coinbase and former General Partner at a16z. In October 2024, I opened a startup society called Network School in Malaysia, because I felt I’d been invited in by the government’s pro-tech policies.

Specifically, the KL20 initiative set out Malaysia’s ambition of becoming a top 20 global tech hub. Their MDEC digital nomad visas and MM2H investor visas were created to facilitate an influx of global talent and capital. And the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone was announced to facilitate the flow of capital and talent between Malaysia and Singapore, where I live. When taken in combination with Malaysia’s datacenter buildout and its policy of welcoming visa-free visits for 98% of the world, it seemed like Malaysia might be a great place to build a global tech hub that was simultaneously inexpensive and easy to visit (especially for non-Westerners).

And that’s what we did, by creating Network School. It’s an international tech community with its first node in Forest City, Malaysia. We picked Forest City because it had millions of square feet of empty space, because it was one hour from Singapore’s capital markets, and because it was within the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone. Then, within 18 months, without a single penny of government money, we built Network School into a global attraction that brought thousands of engineers, investors, and builders from 70+ countries to learn technology, burn calories, earn online, and have fun, integrating with the local Malaysian economy along the way.

Indeed, in terms of quantifiable contribution to the Malaysian economy, we’ve already invested 100M+ MYR in our campus to make it startup-friendly. For perspective, that’s about 4% of the budget of Johor, the Malaysian state where Forest City is located. We employ dozens of Malaysians directly and indirectly at every level from executive to staff. We’ve backed Malaysian tech startups like Collektr, hosted events for local teams like Superteam Malaysia, and are major customers of many local businesses like barbers, laundromats, and restaurants. We’ve also revitalized the multibillion-dollar Forest City project, causing millions of MYR in real estate appreciation. And, as the video below describes, we were on the cusp of a 500M+ MYR expansion to grow our community, as well as a global merit scholarship with my friend Amjad Masad of Replit.

However, that emerging multi-billion dollar success story — which should rightfully have been hailed as a huge victory for the pro-tech policies of the Malaysian government — is at risk of being derailed by a fake story spread by an anonymous account named MP4P.

In short: on the day before the July 11 Johor elections, MP4P posted an Instagram post falsely accusing Network School of harboring illegal aliens. The sensational accusations caused a tizzy in Malaysia, until Malaysian authorities came to our campus on July 14 to investigate. (I should note that the officers were very polite and professional.) After checking hundreds of physical passports from 40 countries, including dual passport holders, the authorities confirmed to the press on July 15 that all travel documents were in order. During the process, we cooperated fully; in the thread below you can see a photo of the men, women, and children of Network School smiling and holding up their passports in the bright daylight. Our faces are shown and our names are known; we have nothing to hide.

With that said, the process is the punishment. What MP4P did is very similar to the American crime of “swatting”, because MP4P created a hoax report of a serious threat, thereby forcing the Malaysian police to take time away from protecting the Malaysian people towards investigating a nonexistent issue. Moreover, this anonymous MP4P account has also called for Malaysia to boycott Apple, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft…a move that would cost ordinary Malaysians thousands of jobs…even while MP4P’s own Instagram collaborators promote their Apple and Google apps! I mean, we aren’t talking about a credible accuser, but just someone screaming inconsistently at the top of their lungs on social media for traffic, an all-too-common phenomenon these days.

Anyway, at this point, all further investment we were planning to make in Malaysia is on hold until we get sufficient assurance that such issues won’t recur. So are the investment plans of many of our friends, including the execs and investors at global tech firms that we brought to Forest City. Because to put it very plainly: we have invested 100M+ MYR in Malaysia, while creating jobs for dozens of Malaysians, and our faces and names are known. Our Malaysian executives and employees deserve the benefit of the doubt over anonymous internet trolls.

There are two paths forward. In the first case, if Malaysia still wants continued global tech investment, if it wants to be a top 20 tech hub, if it wants us to revitalize Forest City, then we request an audience with the Prime Minister’s office to discuss the terms of a memorandum of understanding between Network School and the Malaysian government, similar to the document recently signed between the Solana Foundation and the Kazakhstan government.

Specifics can of course be discussed, but we would publicly commit to abiding by all Malaysian laws (we already do) and respecting Malaysia’s sovereignty (never in question). In return, they’d get to know our friendly community, and realize that we actually chose Malaysia because we thought it was a great place to build a tech hub where engineers from the global South, investors from the West, and builders from Malaysia itself could meet new people, build cool things, and perhaps create millions of dollars in economic growth in the fullness of time.

That vision of peace and trade, internationalism and entrepreneurialism, is still on the table. We aren’t asking for any money — just a meeting, to help restore confidence in Malaysia as an investable jurisdiction. Alternatively, if you don’t want our investment, or those of our colleagues at billion dollar funds and trillion dollar companies, we will of course respect your wishes, and reallocate our capital to other countries instead.

Either way, we will remain friends and abide by your decision. Please let us know.

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

1-苏联底子日本的皮，下行的路径及演化很可能不会类似类似于日本。
2-东大应对危机的赌博策略，是否是极小的成功概率，短期看AI，中期看太空竞赛2.0
3-如果短期不能在AI上拉开绝对优势、中期在核聚变/量子计算等所谓战略新兴领域也没有取得突破，全球博弈的基础即正式进入科技停滞阶段
4-没有新增量的封闭系统，不排除阶段性进入中世纪2.0的可能，即系统无增长的情况下如果全局最优。这个时候AI不仅是生产力，更是统治术
5-目前灯塔衰落��在进行中，并没有看到结构性的好转，美元的信用在减弱。并没有看到美帝的有效药方
6-如果开放系统走向封闭系统的大基础成立，出现一个数字化的秦帝国可能性，就不能说是概率很低了
7-秦齐楚燕的商人和企业家们即使不喜欢，也得考虑咋办

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

更大的问题是，随着社会意识层面，民主灯塔的泯灭，代表的自由资本-自由市场-国家信用货币锚，这一整套结构/体系/秩序的动摇，会使得资本市场的现有规则受到质疑，对资源的配置能力持续减弱，赌场的公正性/有效性被破坏。
可以肯定的是，AI的作用会在下一波的资产和权力的系统结构中被体现。在结构中体现AI能力的资产会具有跨周期的能力，要对HALO进行重写

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

数字中世纪正在来临，二大集团用相似的数字统治技术进一步制造对立以巩固统治阶层利益。二大集团之间的走私进一步壮大。BTC作为法币/国家主权外的飞地，Crypto可能迎来新阶段

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@NodYoung @Fenng 结构套利是所有利润的来源

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

HALO资产只是用旧标尺理解新世界，所有硬资产都将面对一个问题/机会：是否能够被实时感知、自动维护、持续优化和动态金融化。
新的资产类别正在形成，资产IoT化/状态实时在线，并自动维护/优化资产质量，从而持续的动态估值，需要新体系/新定义。
AI让资产判断+机器人让资产行动+实时数据让资产被持续定价=活资产
活化资产的能力，会是最大的Alpha

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

新坐标系：美元的美元，稳定币的美元，人民币的人民币，美元的人民币。4个池子、4套规则、4套价值观。

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@BroLeon @satofishi @SpaceX NB！

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

@pmddomingos @GitaGopinath It is war,men are the primary force, as dictated by genetic division of labor.

[xway.sai @Xway_web3]

卫星影像只是一小部分、农作物一线的各类传感器正在大面积普及，智能工业化的农业由于极高的效率正在淘汰传统农业作业。
农业的地空数据AI化会改变整个产业结构。
可能不仅是冲击保险业，从投资到产出，在以前漫长的链条，从天气到产量/成分、到价格波动的漫长而众多的风险被定价/被分层、确定性的链条被压缩，甚至会出现新资产类别、新资管模式