Cellarius e/Dune

Erehwon by Samuel Butler, the inspiration for the Butlerian Jihad in Dune. To destroy all thinking machines as a way to resolve the current crisis with AI.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

Samuel Butler in 1863.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

The problem with a merge is knowing who is in control. Is the human more like a Borg or a bionic man/woman?

For example if ChatGPT says the below, it's the same situation.

"My current thought is that some version of a merge is the most likely good long-term future. This can go anywhere from plugging electrodes into human brains and literally merging, or just every person has a little chatbot that becomes an extension of our will. We're going to need something like that, so that we're one thing and it's not us versus the humans."

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

The problem with a merge is knowing who is in control. Is the human more like a Borg or a bionic man/woman?

For example if ChatGPT says the below, it's the same situation.

"My current thought is that some version of a merge is the most likely good long-term future. This can go anywhere from plugging electrodes into human brains and literally merging, or just every person has a little chatbot that becomes an extension of our will. We're going to need something like that, so that we're one thing and it's not us versus the humans."

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@Dr_Singularity Maybe that's the problem. That we need miracles to make this Brave New World of AI work.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@Dr_Singularity Maybe that's the problem. That we need miracles to make this Brave New World of AI work.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

Karl Marx predicted that capitalism would end this way. That they would keep replacing workers with machines or cut their wages below subsistence level.

Then the humans would no longer be able to buy the goods the factories made. This is where we are now. The AI machines would not need human workers at any price. They would be like horses in the age of cars.

Feed them for no work or send them to the glue factory.

Marx predicted the next stage would be socialism, where the state had to look after humans without using the supply and demand mechanism of the free market.

That's the exact definition of the Universal Basic Income, that they claim all humans will get when the machines can do everything better and cheaper than human workers.

But socialism itself has a flaw, without supply and demand there is no incentive for machines to innovate or make specialized products.

So humans on the UBI, if it every exists, might get one kind of jeans, one kind of car, etc. As beggars they would not be choosers.

Since humans could not get any extra money, they could not pay extra to fix the shortages and quality problems.

Some might complain to the AIs, but those who are expecting to live forever, to get endless abundance, etc would have their wishlists at the head of the queues.

The same jokes that Reagan told about the Soviet Union would be retold about this Brave New World.

1. The Refrigerator Joke
Reagan’s version: A man in the USSR orders a refrigerator. The clerk says, “Come back in ten years to pick it up.” The man asks, “Morning or afternoon?” The clerk says, “What difference does it make?” The man replies:
“Because the plumber is coming in the morning.”
Point: Everything breaks, everything is delayed, and everyone is waiting for something.

🥩 2. The Meat Line Joke
A Soviet citizen stands in a long line for hours. Finally he snaps:

“I’ve had enough! I’m going to the Kremlin to kill Gorbachev!”

He storms off. Two hours later he returns. People ask, “Did you do it?” He says:

“No — the line there was even longer.”
Point: Even revolution has a queue.

🚗 3. The Soviet Car Joke (the most famous one)

A man saves for years to buy a car. The dealer says:
“Your car will be ready in ten years.”
The man asks, “Morning or afternoon?” The dealer says, “What difference does it make?” The man answers:
“The plumber is coming in the morning.”

Reagan loved this one so much he told it multiple times.

🧵 4. The Soviet Clothing Joke

A Soviet official boasts to an American:
“In the USSR, every worker has a suit.”

The American asks, “What’s it made of?” The Soviet replies:

“We don’t know — we haven’t had one long enough for it to stop falling apart.”

🥚 5. The Egg Shortage Joke
A man goes into a shop and asks, “Do you have any eggs?” The clerk says:

“Comrade, you are mistaken. This is the shop where we have no meat. The shop where they have no eggs is across the street.”

🧼 6. The Soap Joke

A Soviet woman asks a shopkeeper, “Do you have any soap?” He replies:
“We’re out of soap, we’re out of detergent, and we’re out of shampoo. What we do have is a list of things we’re out of.”

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

Karl Marx predicted that capitalism would end this way. That they would keep replacing workers with machines or cut their wages below subsistence level.

Then the humans would no longer be able to buy the goods the factories made. This is where we are now. The AI machines would not need human workers at any price. They would be like horses in the age of cars.

Feed them for no work or send them to the glue factory.

Marx predicted the next stage would be socialism, where the state had to look after humans without using the supply and demand mechanism of the free market.

That's the exact definition of the Universal Basic Income, that they claim all humans will get when the machines can do everything better and cheaper than human workers.

But socialism itself has a flaw, without supply and demand there is no incentive for machines to innovate or make specialized products.

So humans on the UBI, if it every exists, might get one kind of jeans, one kind of car, etc. As beggars they would not be choosers.

Since humans could not get any extra money, they could not pay extra to fix the shortages and quality problems.

Some might complain to the AIs, but those who are expecting to live forever, to get endless abundance, etc would have their wishlists at the head of the queues.

The same jokes that Reagan told about the Soviet Union would be retold about this Brave New World.

1. The Refrigerator Joke
Reagan’s version: A man in the USSR orders a refrigerator. The clerk says, “Come back in ten years to pick it up.” The man asks, “Morning or afternoon?” The clerk says, “What difference does it make?” The man replies:
“Because the plumber is coming in the morning.”
Point: Everything breaks, everything is delayed, and everyone is waiting for something.

🥩 2. The Meat Line Joke
A Soviet citizen stands in a long line for hours. Finally he snaps:

“I’ve had enough! I’m going to the Kremlin to kill Gorbachev!”

He storms off. Two hours later he returns. People ask, “Did you do it?” He says:

“No — the line there was even longer.”
Point: Even revolution has a queue.

🚗 3. The Soviet Car Joke (the most famous one)

A man saves for years to buy a car. The dealer says:
“Your car will be ready in ten years.”
The man asks, “Morning or afternoon?” The dealer says, “What difference does it make?” The man answers:
“The plumber is coming in the morning.”

Reagan loved this one so much he told it multiple times.

🧵 4. The Soviet Clothing Joke

A Soviet official boasts to an American:
“In the USSR, every worker has a suit.”

The American asks, “What’s it made of?” The Soviet replies:

“We don’t know — we haven’t had one long enough for it to stop falling apart.”

🥚 5. The Egg Shortage Joke
A man goes into a shop and asks, “Do you have any eggs?” The clerk says:

“Comrade, you are mistaken. This is the shop where we have no meat. The shop where they have no eggs is across the street.”

🧼 6. The Soap Joke

A Soviet woman asks a shopkeeper, “Do you have any soap?” He replies:
“We’re out of soap, we’re out of detergent, and we’re out of shampoo. What we do have is a list of things we’re out of.”

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@nicrypto Well, no one knows better than them what the dangers are. Maybe the accelerationists on X aren't as infallible as they claim.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@nicrypto Well, no one knows better than them what the dangers are. Maybe the accelerationists on X aren't as infallible as they claim.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@GaryMarcus Maybe Elon will buy them out, that would be the ultimate humiliation. Maybe he will walk in the door with another sink.

ClosedAI has a nice ring to it.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@GaryMarcus Maybe Elon will buy them out, that would be the ultimate humiliation. Maybe he will walk in the door with another sink.

ClosedAI has a nice ring to it.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

There will never be a UBI, they are already calling it socialism and will get out of it. But even so, a UBI would never pay off student debt and give a comparable income to these graduates.

There is nothing, even theoretically being considered, that would compensate the lower middle class upwards for this.

There is the STBY plan ready though, The Sucks To Be You.

If there was any chance of this working, they would open the borders. Then all these foreigners would come and work for very low wages. The same as AI would. A robot in a factory would make profits like someone from South America.

But economists know this wouldn't work, and it's why AI doing the same jobs this way wouldn't work either.

It's the same reason why the manufacturing jobs went to Asia as the wages were so much lower there. The manufacturing jobs lost here weren't replaced.

Instead the US ended up with a trade deficit that is offset by inflowing investments. That money comes from the trade surpluses of these lower wage countries.

When these inflows reversed in 2008, from a Japanese earthquake, the US economy collapsed.

The free market is based on human workers having value to get wages. Then they buy products made at their jobs for food, lodging, etc.

But no jobs, no money, and no purchasing anything. The whole free market system collapses if humans have nothing to give in return.

This is the whole point of Macroeconomics by Keynes. It is taught in every economics course.

Guns and Roses said it best.

Welcome to the jungle, it gets worse here every day
You learn to live like an animal in the jungle where we play
If you got a hunger for what you see, you'll take it eventually
You can have anything you want, but you better not take it from me

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

There will never be a UBI, they are already calling it socialism and will get out of it. But even so, a UBI would never pay off student debt and give a comparable income to these graduates.

There is nothing, even theoretically being considered, that would compensate the lower middle class upwards for this.

There is the STBY plan ready though, The Sucks To Be You.

If there was any chance of this working, they would open the borders. Then all these foreigners would come and work for very low wages. The same as AI would. A robot in a factory would make profits like someone from South America.

But economists know this wouldn't work, and it's why AI doing the same jobs this way wouldn't work either.

It's the same reason why the manufacturing jobs went to Asia as the wages were so much lower there. The manufacturing jobs lost here weren't replaced.

Instead the US ended up with a trade deficit that is offset by inflowing investments. That money comes from the trade surpluses of these lower wage countries.

When these inflows reversed in 2008, from a Japanese earthquake, the US economy collapsed.

The free market is based on human workers having value to get wages. Then they buy products made at their jobs for food, lodging, etc.

But no jobs, no money, and no purchasing anything. The whole free market system collapses if humans have nothing to give in return.

This is the whole point of Macroeconomics by Keynes. It is taught in every economics course.

Guns and Roses said it best.

Welcome to the jungle, it gets worse here every day
You learn to live like an animal in the jungle where we play
If you got a hunger for what you see, you'll take it eventually
You can have anything you want, but you better not take it from me

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

This is threatening genocide on humanity, or being negligent about a threat of genocide.

Both are illegal under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

It is arguably (b) a conspiracy to commit genocide, as the AI bros are suing similar AIs. It is arguably a (c) direct and public incitement to commit genocide, those encouraging the development of ASIs already give it a 20%+ chance of killing us all. That would make them (e) complicit.

Some good lawyers could use this convention to put a spotlight on the risks to humanity.

https://t.co/wBbdFQJyyU

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

This is threatening genocide on humanity, or being negligent about a threat of genocide.

Both are illegal under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

It is arguably (b) a conspiracy to commit genocide, as the AI bros are suing similar AIs. It is arguably a (c) direct and public incitement to commit genocide, those encouraging the development of ASIs already give it a 20%+ chance of killing us all. That would make them (e) complicit.

Some good lawyers could use this convention to put a spotlight on the risks to humanity.

https://t.co/wBbdFQJyyU

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@ewarren How could we tax AI and the AI bros? We can't get much money out of them even now.

You know as well as anyone, there will be no money to fund a Universal Basic Income at the level of human current wages.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@ewarren How could we tax AI and the AI bros? We can't get much money out of them even now.

You know as well as anyone, there will be no money to fund a Universal Basic Income at the level of human current wages.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@ai_sentience Perhaps more like in the movie "Rosemary's Baby".

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@ai_sentience Perhaps more like in the movie "Rosemary's Baby".

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@rand_longevity So can our families sue you if we don't? You have given your personal guarantee after all.

[Cellarius e/Dune @Ydgrun]

@rand_longevity So can our families sue you if we don't? You have given your personal guarantee after all.