Ying

Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today.

国内top2毕业，前大厂高级总监。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

存储需求转向HDD或许只是开始。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

@Janegtys0527 @NoraX2026 系统思维大师，德内拉梅多斯在系统之美提到的任何系统包含三部分，目标，要素和连接，这里的关系和约束属于连接。变量就是要素。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

@qinbafrank SemiAnalysis给机构的和公开的应该不是同一份内容，我一点都不信

[Ying @yingbe4s]

预测未来的方式是创造未来。

[Satya Nadella @satyanadella]

https://t.co/vLmiBKTtX3

[Ying @yingbe4s]

其实美股很简单挣钱，也很容易亏钱。关键是自己能不能独立思考，如果今天看到这个银行说某个指标历史最高，要调整了，明天看到某个机构卖出了，然后就焦虑，那么不适合。超额收益来自非共识。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

@hanking66 因为大多数人没有脑子

[Ying @yingbe4s]

题目背景也好懂，就是人工智能的梯度下降和最优化问题。能到这个程度的人就更少了。

对初中和高中生而言，重点是如何理解概念，搞清楚这些概念从哪里来，到哪里去。

如何站在高维度去思考函数的意义。说到底函数就是对世界的一种建模，人们总想参透这个世界，发现各种函数，然后研究各种函数的性质

[Ying @yingbe4s]

晚上看了下今年的高考数学题，认真的说，题目出的挺好的，只是不适合我们国内的教育模式。题目本身没有超纲，但是背后的思想都是大学才会学到的，研究抽象函数的性质，需要很强的分析能力，且对最基本的集合概念，需要有极其深刻的理解，我绝不认为除了竞赛生，有人能在高中阶段可以理解。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

每一次下跌都是抄底的机会，远离身边说美股存在泡沫的人。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

认真观察了 spcx 的走势，反复横跳，这不是一个好的现象，而且还带着大盘反复横跳。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

海力士这两天如果暴跌，韩国队还能好好踢球吗？哈哈

[Ying @yingbe4s]

说个预测，我有 90% 的把握今年不会加息，另外 10% 的把握，今年会降息。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

这个世界都是草台班子，任何依据报告就卖出光模块的，6 个月后一定会后悔。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

@TechFlowPost 相信这种报告，永远都挣不到钱。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

Semianalysis发给机构的报告，把一些已有的事实当作标题党，毫无逻辑可言，那么多人相信，只能说需要一个原因做空而已。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

连接比要素重要。

[TrendForce @trendforce]

Not only is the number of Scale-Out interconnects within individual AI data centers increasing rapidly as deployments continue to expand, but demand for Scale-Across connectivity between data centers is also rising in parallel. This trend is significantly increasing the reliance of network architectures on optical transmission technologies, thereby driving demand for fiber-optic and cabling infrastructure. While market attention has traditionally focused on core computing components such as GPUs, HBM, and high-speed switches, the optical fiber supply chain is emerging as a new bottleneck for AI infrastructure as AI clusters scale toward hundreds of thousands—or even millions—of accelerators.

Technology roadmaps from companies such as NVIDIA, Google, and Microsoft indicate that AI system bandwidth requirements will continue to grow exponentially. This means the limitations of traditional copper cabling in transmission distance, power consumption, and thermal management will become increasingly pronounced as Scale-Up interconnect bandwidth between AI chips within the rack increases. TrendForce expects that, beginning in 2028, some high-end AI systems will start adopting optical fiber and Silicon Photonics (SiPh) technologies to replace copper-based interconnects, further accelerating demand growth across the optical communications ecosystem.

Against this backdrop, hyperscalers have begun to view optical fiber as a strategic resource on par with GPUs and HBM. Since the beginning of the year, Corning has secured investments, capacity expansion support, and long-term procurement agreements from major industry players, including Meta, NVIDIA, and Amazon. These developments suggest that leading CSPs are proactively securing fiber supply capacity years in advance. Amazon’s partnership with Corning not only demonstrates that the AI infrastructure race has expanded beyond computing resources into optical communications infrastructure, but also signals the industry's entry into an era of “optical infrastructure competition.” Looking ahead, optical connectivity will no longer be viewed merely as a data center cost item; instead, it will become a critical strategic asset that determines the pace of AI factory expansion and long-term competitive advantage.

[Ying @yingbe4s]

另一方面，尽管英伟达拥有更大的护城河，但是技术层面的竞争也更大也更多，那么多芯片startup，说明要素是可以被替代的，但是连接不会。10年后，光依然是数据中心的关键，但英伟达的gpu可能不是。也就是押注物理层，而不是压住具体的技术。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

跨越知道和相信是一道巨大的鸿沟，如何解决这个问题，最好的方法是站在更高的维度来思考问题。美股当前最热门的领域就是存储和光，站在系统思考的角度，目标，要素和链接，gpu,hbm这些都是要素，光是连接。连接的重要性大于要素，因此我会更好看光，其次是hbm。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

@MaxForAI @QuanquanGu 大厂惯用套路，离职了就彻底切割，否定一切。

[Ying @yingbe4s]

满屏的悲观气氛，反而觉得越来越稳。